Overcoming self and mastering Trading Psychology is an individual struggle – this is why consistent long-term traders have developed a tremendous and unbiased awareness of self. When I came into the trading business in the mid-1970s there was a saying around the Chicago Board of Trade that went something like this … “If you want to know yourself – all your insecurities, character faults, issues of pride, areas of greed or selfishness, unresolved traits, etc. – just become a trader. How true! Self-awareness and managing the Human Side of Trading is a hallmark of every great trader I have known over the years.
https://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Trading-Psychology-The-Human-Side-of-Trading-Peter-brandt.jpg8221233Peter Brandthttps://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Factor-Research-Trading-Services-300x79-300x79.pngPeter Brandt2016-09-27 12:48:232016-09-27 12:48:23Trading Psychology - The Human Side of Trading
Here at Factor, we receive so many great questions covering Risk Management, Trade Management, Classical Charting Principles, The process of Trading, and the Human Aspect of Market Speculation. As followers of our public blog, we wanted to share just a handful of these Q&A’s with you.
Is it a massive Natural Gas Head & Shoulders bottom?
I last covered the Natural Gas market within the public blog back on June 20th, with the post "Natural Gas Rising". Natural Gas posted a 21-year price low in Mar 2016 and the bottom took the form of a 7-month Natural Gas Head & Shoulders bottom on the daily and weekly charts. The target of this H&S at 2.934 was quickly met on Jun 29. The Factor participated in this H&S pattern in its proprietary account and discussed the pattern within the Factor member Updates (See here for details on the Factor Service).
https://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Is-it-a-massive-Natural-Gas-Head-Shoulders-bottom-factor-trading-Peter-brandt.jpg13361288Peter Brandthttps://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Factor-Research-Trading-Services-300x79-300x79.pngPeter Brandt2016-09-19 11:38:402016-09-19 11:38:40Is it a massive Natural Gas Head & Shoulders bottom?
There is some analog history for a bull trend in Soybean Oil to follow a bull market in Soybean Meal by six to 12 months. I would define the Apr-Jun 2016 advance in Meal to be a bull market. The H&S forming on the weekly Soybean Oil graph is my current favorite developing pattern.
Factor is long Soybean Oil with a decided interest to extend leverage. This market has the potential to be a 1000 basis point trade.
https://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Soybean-Oil-next-in-line-Factor-Trading-Peter-Brandt.jpg8231233Peter Brandthttps://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Factor-Research-Trading-Services-300x79-300x79.pngPeter Brandt2016-09-12 10:06:092016-09-12 10:06:09Soybean Oil Next In Line
The dominant chart construction in Cable is the completed 30- year rectangle on the quarterly graph with a target of 1.0345 — and .7790 as an outside possibility. As pointed out in the discussion of Commitment of Traders data herein, specs have an all-time record short position and commercials an all-time record long position in Pound futures. This is not typically a profile consistent with a further downward trend. I would not be surprised if GBP retests major resistance in the 1.39 to 1.41 zone. Factor is flat. If the Cable does rally toward 1.40 I will be watching closely for a selling opportunity in the way of a small topping pattern on the daily chart. There is also a chance – supported by Friday’s reversal day – that the daily chart is forming a symmetrical triangle congestion.
The dream of novice market speculators is that they will continually bask in the warmth of profitable times. This myth is falsely promised by the promoters of trading systems and trading training programs. In fact, just the opposite is true. Most long-term profitable traders spend the vast majority of their trading careers either in a trading drawdown or recovering from a drawdown. Any slick promoter who tells you different is not dealing from a full deck.
There is a statistical concept known as the “underwater curve.” The underwater curve plots the time periods when new all-time high NAV levels are being registered (represented by “0” on an underwater curve) and the time periods in which drawdowns are either underway or in recovery back toward new all-time NAV levels.