Not all market environments are equal. Similarly, the same market environment can treat different trading styles in very different ways – some favorably, others miserably. The current markets, in my opinion, are neutral/hostile to classical charting principles. Current markets are volatile; false and premature breakouts have increased in 2016 to date; and, there is a lack of substantial patterns under construction. I have experienced this type of trading environment before – many times. There are profits to be had in some markets, but there are also an oversupply of land mines. For me, this type of trading environment has not correlated well with a robust three-month forward ROR. Of course I will continue to take signals that are promising knowing that sooner or later markets favorable to classical charting will return.
Warning: I generally ignore one-day price action, preferring area patterns. Yet, nearly every market discussed in this Update experienced a narrow real-range bar on Friday that occurred at or just below the close of Thursday’s wide range day. This development suggests the possibility of a shake out next week. According, I enter next week in a very defensive frame of mind.
The last Factor Update commented on a possible bottom in Soybeans based on a H&S bottom on the continuation graph (most active contract roll).
A close above 900 would, in my opinion, complete this bottom. It is unfortunate that the charts of the individual contract months do now show the precision of the continuation graph. This chart illustrates the reasons I far prefer a flat or horizontal neckline. Even though the neckline as drawn may be violates, the left and right should highs remain as serious resistance points. Thus, even though the H&S pattern might be completed with a neckline breakout, the market remains in a trading range.
A Factor Move was terminated in AUD/NZD. A Factor Move is developing in USD/SEK and New Zealand Dollars. This issue of the Factor also comments on the Soybean complex, Euro, Heating Oil, Canadian Dollars and global stock markets.
Factor Moves in Progress
Copper (daily chart)
After falling from a high of 465 in Feb 2011, it appears that Copper bottomed at 193.55 on Jan 18. The advance on Mar 1 confirmed a H&S bottom. I have upped the initial price target to 231.90. An eventual test of the Oct 2015 high at 244 is likely. Factor is long one layer.
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https://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/factor-report-march-13th.jpg600899Peter Brandthttps://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/TheFactorReport-small-logo.jpgPeter Brandt2016-03-13 21:49:022016-04-04 08:33:47Factor Report – March 13th
A Factor Move is developing in AUD/NZD. This issue of the Factor also comments on Canadian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Australian Dollar and U.S. stock indexes.
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https://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/factor-update.jpg10301955Peter Brandthttps://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/TheFactorReport-small-logo.jpgPeter Brandt2016-03-06 21:49:232016-04-04 08:28:07Factor Trading – March 6th Report
Factor Update, March 20, 2016
/by Peter BrandtGeneral Market Commentary
Not all market environments are equal. Similarly, the same market environment can treat different trading styles in very different ways – some favorably, others miserably. The current markets, in my opinion, are neutral/hostile to classical charting principles. Current markets are volatile; false and premature breakouts have increased in 2016 to date; and, there is a lack of substantial patterns under construction. I have experienced this type of trading environment before – many times. There are profits to be had in some markets, but there are also an oversupply of land mines. For me, this type of trading environment has not correlated well with a robust three-month forward ROR. Of course I will continue to take signals that are promising knowing that sooner or later markets favorable to classical charting will return. Warning: I generally ignore one-day price action, preferring area patterns. Yet, nearly every market discussed in this Update experienced a narrow real-range bar on Friday that occurred at or just below the close of Thursday’s wide range day. This development suggests the possibility of a shake out next week. According, I enter next week in a very defensive frame of mind.Market Review
Read MoreHodge-Podge
/by Peter BrandtFactor Report – March 13th
/by Peter BrandtMarket Review
Factor Moves are currently ongoing in:- Gold
- Japanese Yen
- USD/NOK
- Copper
- AUD/NZD
A Factor Move was terminated in AUD/NZD. A Factor Move is developing in USD/SEK and New Zealand Dollars. This issue of the Factor also comments on the Soybean complex, Euro, Heating Oil, Canadian Dollars and global stock markets.Factor Moves in Progress
Copper (daily chart)
After falling from a high of 465 in Feb 2011, it appears that Copper bottomed at 193.55 on Jan 18. The advance on Mar 1 confirmed a H&S bottom. I have upped the initial price target to 231.90. An eventual test of the Oct 2015 high at 244 is likely. Factor is long one layer.Factor Trading – March 6th Report
/by Peter BrandtMarket Review
Factor Moves are currently ongoing in:- Gold
- Japanese Yen
- USD/NOK
- Copper
- GBP/CAD
A Factor Move is developing in AUD/NZD. This issue of the Factor also comments on Canadian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Australian Dollar and U.S. stock indexes. Read More