Factor Update – May 29, 2016
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Peter Brandt entered the commodity trading business in 1976 and is considered by many leading authorities to be one of the best classical chartists and traders.
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This Alert provides my current thinking on the overall technical condition of specified markets.
For a considerable period of time I have held a very negative opinion on the Euro. The Euro currency has a complicated history. The Maastricht Treaty of 1992 obligated certain Euro nations to adopt a common currency – although it was not until Jan 2002 that currencies such as the D-Mark were officially replaced by the Euro currency mechanism. It is possible to create a proxy EUR that dates back to 1992. In fact, IMM and proxy price data exist back to the early 1970s. Several technical developments on the EUR graphs are worthy of note.
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Greetings from Berlin Germany.
It is with some discomfort that I am always pointing out potential tops in the U.S. stock market indexes. But, I must call them as I read them. The S&P daily chart has made ZERO upward progress in 18 months. A possible complex H&S top formation is under construction. Also note the appearance of a 7-week H&S top pattern. I am willing to short this smaller H&S pattern if given a well-defined risk point. I will give up on a bearish interpretation of the S&Ps if a new high is made – but this does not mean I would have any interest in being long in new high territory.
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I remain a long-term bull on the U.S. Dollar. Like every other chartist in the world, I am well aware that the DX penetrated the important line of support at 93.00 this past week. I had absolutely no desire to short the apparent breakout of this level. In fact, I believe the decline below 92.00 was a gigantic bear trap – bringing in new shorts and washing out stalled longs.
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Platinum
The dominant chart construction in Platinum is the completed 9-month H&S bottom on the weekly and daily graphs with an implied profit target of 1179. Note the near perfect Apr 25 retest of the neckline on the daily chart. The strength on Apr 28 goes a long way to confirm the H&S bottom interpretation.