Chart of the day — a potential top in Soybeans


A Head and Shoulders is not a Head and Shoulders until the neckline is decisively broken on a closing basis

A chartist deals in possibilities, not probabilities. The H&S top in Meal is a possibility worth watching.

Markets: $ZM_F, $ZS_F


Michael Covel talks with Peter Brandt on Trend Following Radio

Interview: Michael Covel talks with Peter Brandt on Trend Following Radio
Topic: Trading as a career
Recorded date: October 25, 2012

Silver is forming a massive Head and Shoulders top


A restest of the neckline at around $26 is likely, what happens after that could be historical.

The daily chart of Silver futures is forming a massive 13-month H&S top pattern. The neckline of this pattern at $26 is the likely downside target of the current sell off.

Also, note that the right shoulder high of the massive H&S pattern took the form of double H&S tops of 5-weeks and 7-weeks of duration. The right shoulders of both of these smaller patterns were abbreviated. As a general rule, H&S patterns with abbreviated right shoulders tend to be quite reliable.

As one would expect, the chart of $SLV (etf) is quite similar in form.


Markets: $SI_F, $SLV


The Apple (AAPL) is falling from the tree


Targets are 522, then 430

Several chart developments are worthy of note.

The monthly chart shows the 103-fold price increase from the early 2000s lows to the 2012 high. Such an advance goes a very long way to discount completely the bullish future of Apple ($AAPL). The advance during 2012 can be accurately described as a blow-off top.

The weekly chart displays the dominant bull trendline connecting the 2009, 2010 and 2011 lows. This trendline will likely be the level to which the AAPL price will return.


Finally, the daily  graph displays a near-textbook H&S top completed on Oct. 8. Also note that the market has sliced through the intermediate trendline connecting the late 2011 and May 2012 lows. It is not unusual for an historic bull trend to end with a brief topping pattern.

The targets for $AAPL are the May 2012 low at 522 and the major trendline around 430. The stock is oversold near term. A rally toward 655 is possible.  This analysis becomes null and void if $AAPL closes above 675.