Factor Update, November 21, 2016
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Entries by Peter Brandt
Factor Special Report, November 17, 2016 — The January FX Effect
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A Market Wizards Dialogue
A Market Wizards Dialogue - Jack Schwager - Peter Brandt Interview - Part 1
Below is the first of a three part interview with Jack Schwager Market Wizards author and Peter Brandt CEO and founder of Factor Trading. We sincerely hope you enjoy and receive great value from all of our free content.
Factor Alert, November 16, 2016 — Japanese 10- Yr JGB
Factor Alert, November 16, 2016 — Cotton
Cotton is a member of the notorious New York "C" gang of thieves -- Cotton, Copper, Cocoa and Coffee. The NY Cs are very difficult markets to trade using classical charting principles. These markets periodically offer excellent chart signals (such as just occurred in Copper) -- but as a rule most classical patterns in the C-markets provide frustration.
EUR/USD, seasonality and the ADX indicator
There are several technical features of EUR/USD that traders should be aware of at this point in time.
Seasonality
There is an extremely strong tendency for EUR/USD to experience its annual high or low in the month of January. In fact, in 35 of the past 46 years the annual high or low occurred in Jan -- with the high or low occurring in Feb or early Mar in another four years. I believe the high or low in EUR/USD will occur in early Jan in 2017 -- and, of course, my present bias is for a high to occur.
Freeport McMoran (FCX) (Trade Idea)
The dominant chart construction in this stock is the 16-month H&S bottom on the weekly chart. A decisive move and close above 14.70 will be my signal to buy. Factor is flat.
Factor Alert — Eurocurrency and USDX
EUR/USD
The decline on Friday (with the follow-through today) has completed a 9-month H&S top pattern, setting up a test of the lower boundary of a 20-month consolidation. As mentioned by the November 13, 2016 Factor Update, I view this H&S as the possible launching pad for the completion of the larger congestion area.
Crude Oil – Possibilities
Crude Oil - Possibilities
The possibility of a 15- month H&S bottom on the weekly chart has given way to two very different Crude Oil Possibilities:
(1.) An “end-around” the 12-week symmetrical triangle, or
(2.) Substantially greater morphing of the chart. I favor the “morphing” option.
Under this option, prices could trade back into the mid-$30s. The weekly continuation chart shown is based on a roll-at-first notice date.
Transparency is a common trait among good traders
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