Entries by Peter Brandt

Factor Alert (Oct 17, 2016) — A case for being a short-term Crude Oil bear

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As usual I must emphasize that I deal in possibilities, not probabilities and certainly not certainties. Chart patterns develop and sometimes work out -- more often than not they morph or even completely fail. Nevertheless, chart construction can offer the opportunity for asymmetrical reward to risk trade set ups and that is the most a trader can expect.

A case can be made that the next $5 to $7 move in Crude Oil will be to the downside.

The weekly continuation graph has traced out a near textbook 15-month inverted H&S bottom dating back to Jul 2015. The neckline on this pattern ranges from 51.50 to 52.50 depending upon the roll date used to create the continuation graph (most active, first notice, last trading date). The graph shown below rolls at last trading date. A decisive closing price completion of this H&S pattern would set up targets of 62.58 (May 2015 high) and 76.40 (measured move of H&S).

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Factor Alert (Oct 18, 2016) — Australian Dollar

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The Aussie $ seems poised to gain on several other currency units based on the charts.

 

AUD/CHF -- the weekly chart displays a 22-month symmetrical triangle. A decisive close above the Apr 2016 high will be enough to warrant a long position. I am willing to risk about 60 BPs on the trade. Symmetrical triangles often lack reliability. Also, patterns longer than 12-months are more apt to experience morphing.

 

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Yen Chart – Textbook Market

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Yen Chart – Textbook Market   The Yen Chart is a textbook charting market – it has a long history of providing very reliable pattern signals, as shown on the weekly chart dating back to early 2011.   The advance on Oct 4 appears to have completed a possible 16-week symmetrical triangle bottom – remember […]

2016 Update – U.S. health care: Highest in the world in cost, 37th in performance. This system has already been declared guilty.

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Trading and the U.S. healthcare system — these are the two issues for which I am most passionate about. Trading — because it is how I made and continue to make my living. The healthcare system — because of a major accident I had in 1984, this has made the cost and delivery of healthcare a focus of my life….This blog was originally posted on March 12, 2012 during the height of the U.S. national debate over healthcare reform and Obamacare….