Tag Archive for: Drawdown

Ending a Drawdown, a Discussion, October 2022

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Factor Member Webinar September 2022 – Drawdowns

Recorded live September 13, 2022

This webinar is specific to the Drawdown document issued on August 29, 2022, "The Dreaded “D” Word, August 2022"

Live questions from Members  

  1. Factor's underwater curve changed dramatically around 2014. Is this due to measuring DD using closed trade NAV, or due to aggressive risk management? 13:50
  2. What's your most remembered drawdown period? 16:01
  3. How much of the drawdown period is self-inflicted as in we make the period worse ourselves rather than sticking to the trading plan we all should have? 18:01
  4. What is an "acceptable" drawdown for those who have retirement accounts and do not have the ability to do shorter-term trades, hence, needing to hold longer? Whether that be an index fund, BTC, etc. 20:18
  5. I started paper trading eight months ago and have had equity vol but no progression; still at around break even. Very difficult to know if this is a natural DD or just not a working system! 23:22 (A Brief Introduction to Probability Theory and the Random Distribution of Results: Understanding the Concept of Sequencing in a Trading Operation
  6. What practical steps do you take to deal with mental torment? 25:57
  7. My data over two years shows that if I take every trade my total performance would be 6 X greater with fewer drawdowns. Common reasons for not pulling the trigger are: Pattern extended from MA's, Support/resistance close, pattern looks loose, not text book pattern, looking for more compression before breakout. However, looking back, they have more going for it than not. Do you have any advice here? 29:07
  8. You mentioned "be able to take many small losses", does limiting risk to 1% but not moving stops aggressively satisfy this? 31:38
  9. The first line in your how to have success in trading is having Defineable and Comprehensive trade. Is this a written document that you continually update? If so, is it fairly detailed and includes all of your trading weapons? I would love to see an outline if this is something that exists. 34:23 (BOOK: Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke
  10. How do you decide when to move stops and to where? 38:05 (A protocol for Entering Trades Using ATR Stop Levels
  11. What was the pivot to introducing varied bet size? My struggle is when to increase bet size, and if the next is a big winner then I'm missing out. 42:08
  12. Do you think it makes sense to start cutting trade size if you see lots of tradable patterns to limit the risk in having more signals than normal? 44:44
  13. Experience is the best answer to many trading questions ... Knowing your "edge" & knowing how to calculate that - Before! - placing a bet ... discovering this changed my life ... Thank you, Peter, for this discussion! 48:20
  14. You scale out of trades and less frequently add another traunch. Could you elaborate on when and how to take a second bite? 49:06
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Common abbreviations/acronyms used by Peter

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Drawdowns

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Drawdowns

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Factor Update, February 4, 2018

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Factor Member April 2017 Webinar

Factor Member Q&A with Peter L. Brandt - Recorded live April 13, 2017 Opening discussion/presentation by Peter 
  • Factor Tracking Account Update through April 13, 2017
  • Drawdowns
  • Underwater Curve
  • Factor Chart Pattern Trading Grid: Trade Management / Pattern Eligibility Time Framing
Live questions from Members
  1. In last months Q&A, you mentioned having reduced the trades from 20 to about 8 per month (you have noted this a number of times before of course) due to the break outs not being as successful in years past. You have resorted to 10+ week patterns. Based on that, does it stand to reason there is a substantial lessening in the amount of money that can be made trading classical patterns vs. years ago? 24:49
  2. In trading grains (corn, soybeans, wheat), is seasonality a useful information? Does Peter rely on such data in addition to classical charting? 26:34
  3. There is an alert on TLT which says a close above 123.31 is the trigger. Should a limit order to buy be placed at 123.31 with the target being 128.93 as shown on the alert or do you wait for the close to be above 123.31? I do not see a recommended stop, so I would think it to be the double bottom around 123. 28:39
  4. What’s your view on Sugar? 32:12
  5. Gold has broken up this week and USDJPY has broken down — the negative correlation between gold and USDJPY continues.  How much longer do you think this correlation will continue? 34:05
  6. From observing your approach, you seem to primarily trade trends. Have you every thought about trading ranges? 35:09
  7. What do you think of  EUR/SGD? 36:22
  8. As a discretionary trader, how can I know I have an edge? As a chart pattern trader, do I need to do the backtest? 37:43
  9. Do you believe the markets are or can be manipulated by the "market makers"? Do you consider this in your trading? 39:03
  10. Is there a way to trade volatility? Surely, it will lift significantly at some point, VIX? 40:31
  11. Lets say with intro of quants and computer programs to do the trading, do you believe chart patterns is becoming obsolete. In old times, market was 100% psychology but computer and quants take psychology out of market and their share of trading is increasing, would patterns still be relevant in future? 41:11
  12. Bonds broke out to the upside and small caps look weak. But you're not in either? 42:25
  13. You spoke glowingly about your being able to have a life as a trader. You have also mentioned it is now very competitive to trade. Would you then recommend that an individual in 2017 make a career of being a trader as you are? 43:18
  14. Would it be helpful to learn a programming language to be able script simulations on potential filters, rules, etc. 44:43
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Factor Member March 2017 Webinar

Factor Member Q&A with Peter L. Brandt - Recorded live March 8, 2017

Opening discussion/presentation by Peter - Drawdowns

Live questions from Members
  1. You're measuring DD on closed equity based on weekly closes? 22:23
  2. What do you think the bottom for WTI oil is? 24:18
  3. When you wait for a market to close beyond the boundary of a technical formation, do you actually execute the trade on the open of the following day? Or do you execute it just a few minutes prior to the closing bell? 26:02
  4. You mentioned that you cap your risk to about 100bps per trade. Do you also have a limit on the aggregate risk for the whole portfolio, say 1,000bps or 1,500bps etc? 29:27
  5. If the market touches your stop so briefly that only a part of your position is closed out but then quickly reverses direction and moves in your favor again, do you keep holding your remaining position or do you close it now, at the somewhat-better-than-stop price? 31:08
  6. Do you always have a stoploss order entered during the day for every position?  Do you worry about your stops getting runned by the computer trading? 32:03
  7. What was it that made you go long on the FTSE 100 recently? The breaking of the new high or did you get in prior to this? 34:02
  8. In your latest book you say, you have additional quality requirements to diagonal patterns. Which are those and how do they compare in quality to horizontal — i.e. possible to reach similar quality with diagonal patterns as with 10W horizontal or 6-8W continuation pattern? 35:06
  9. On the stop loss: does make sense to use tec level for Stop loss and or volatility determined stop loss? 36:38
  10. What is your view about the effect of computer/algo trading on chart pattern-based trading over the next several years? 37:17
  11. How often do you use commitment of traders data? How important is it to confirm your chart reading? 38:08
  12. What does "record" mean when you referred to record spec longs and record commercial shorts in the COT data? Does it mean the highest number for the period you're looking at or does it mean the highest number of all time? 39:37
  13. You mentioned that you prefer to trade futures over FX. However, in your 2016 Factor Tracking account, spot forex was traded more often than their futures equivalent. Why is that? 40:15
  14. What securities/assets do you EXCLUDE in calculating your Total Trading Capital? Can those assets included in Total Trading Capital be invested in other things or trading strategies, or should they be sitting in cash with zero risk exposure? 41:16
  15. How many tightly correlated markets do you allow yourself to trade in the same direction simultaneously?  For example short Yen and short Gold? 43:00
  16. With respect to equities do you ever care about valuations or do you just use your process and focus purely on charts. I just don't want to be left holding the bag. 43:54
  17. When you miss a trade do you often trade the retest and if you do, do you put on the trade at the boundary line or a certain % above the boundary line. 44:33
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Factor Update, March 5, 2017

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Great Traders are Underwater Most of the Time

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