Tag Archive for: Emotions and trading

What would you tell your younger self - Peter Brandt - Factor Trading

What Would You Tell Your Younger Self?

 

This video except comes from our monthly Member only Q&A.  The question was:  Looking back over your trading career – What advice would you give to your younger self?   I thought you might find this interesting.

 

 

 

 

 

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Factor Membership

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Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading.  Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

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View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work.   Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about.  For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

Factor Trading - An Introduction

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Trading Expectations - The enemy of traders | Peter Brandt

Trading Expectations – The enemy of traders

Trading Expectations – The enemy of traders

My observation over the years is that a significant discrepancy between trading expectations and reality exists among newbies and aspiring traders. Unfortunately this gap between “wishful thinking” and “what-is thinking” can be the downfall of an aspiring trader. What are some of the false trading expectations held by many newbies and aspiring traders?

  • Win rates of 60%, 70% and even 80% can be achieved on a continuous basis – this is especially true if a trader expects to achieve a positive win value/loss value ratio
  • The win rate over a large number of trades will apply fairly evenly to any subset of smaller number of trades
  • A risk of 5% to 10% of capital per trade is reasonable and will produce the maximum profit
  • A trader can know with a high degree of confidence what a given market will do
  • Annual RORs of 50%, even 100%, are achievable if only certain trading systems or gurus are followed
  • A trading account can reasonably be funded from savings, a loan, an inheritance
  • Day trading is the way to go for most beginning traders
  • The secret to trading success comes from trade identification or trade signaling

So, what do I view to be the realities of trading?

  • Successful market speculation is one of the most challenging endeavors one can undertake
  • It generally requires three years for a beginning trader to gain a sense for how she or he will trade and five years to become proficient with the adopted approach
  • A win rate of 50% is fabulous for a position trader
  • Even with a win rate of >50%, drawdowns in excess of 30% of capital will occur annually if the bet size exceeds 2% of
  • Trading outcomes over a series of trades are subject to random probability – and random probability can be a real bitch
  • A trader really has no clue what a given market will do
  • While day trading can be a profitable approach, a beginning trader needs to understand the reasons why the odds are stacked against day trading. Hint: the reason deals with the need for a trader to have an “edge.” The reality is that HFT and quant operations have the edge on a daily basis – so a day trader must compete with firms that know spec orders in advance in order to be profitable. I am NOT saying that ALL spec day traders are doomed. I am simply stating that the odds of success in day trading are far less than for position
  • A trader’s worst drawdown is the one yet occur
  • If there is a “secret” to trading, it has VERY little to do with trade identification and It has more to do with overcoming the human pitfalls of fear, greed and false hope.

 

It would be nice to think that every trade … week … month … year will be profitable. But that is not reality – at least not for me. Statistically I can define my average year (although in reality no two years are ever alike). With 25 years of trading basically the same way I have the luxury of knowing my trading benchmarks and metrics inside and out. These trading benchmarks and metrics help me to form trading expectations. For example, I can reasonably expect four months of an “average” year will be quite good each containing two trades closed at a 350-basis point or more profit. I can also reasonably expect four months to be slightly profitable each containing at least one profit closed at a 200-basis point profit. Then I can expect four months of treading water when good trades are hard to come by and my challenge is holding onto capital.

January has become a water-treading month. Does this mean I traded poorly (or at least sub-par) during the month? Absolutely not! I am completely satisfied with the orders I entered in January – REMEMBER, TRADING CAN BE REDUCED TO THE PROCESS OF ORDER ENTRY. Does this mean I need to “tweak” some aspect of my trade identification, trade entry, sizing or trade management? Absolutely not! My job as a trader is to continue following my overall strategy and tactics through good times and not so good times. The results of the last trade, the last series of trade, the last week or the last month are not determinants of long-term trading success for me.

 

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Factor Membership

.
Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading.  Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work.   Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about.  For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

Factor Trading - An Introduction

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Trading Psychology – The Human Side of Trading

Trading Psychology – The Human Side of Trading

I was recently asked on one of our monthly webinars how I handled trading around periods of draw-downs.  In particular, the member asking the question said they were in a nasty drawdown that lasted a few months, but that there was a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel because recent trades were performing so well.  The dilemma was that he now had an itchy finger to take profits before those targets were hit, as experience told him that it doesn’t take much for a sudden retracement to cut his profits in half.   Fear was warring with his plan, and it had become emotionally tiring.  Of course this is a classic question on Trading Psychology and the Human Side of Trading, a question far too few traders ask of themselves.

Let me guess two things from the question. First, my guess is that the drawdown was deeper than it should have been and that it consisted of at least several trades that went from initial profits into losses. Because of this fact he is now fearful of present profits turning into losses. Second, my guess is that the member had not as buttoned up on rules and guidelines for managing open trades as he would like to be – and this fact makes it easier to second guess the outcomes of each and every trading event.

He asked if this situation ever happens to me. The answer — When doesn’t it happen to me? Welcome to the world of Trading Psychology and discretionary trading. I wish I could sound brilliant in answering the question, but unfortunately the war he describes is not one for which I will ever claim complete victory. Human emotions are the biggest enemy a trader faces. This is one reason I am so critical of the self-proclaim “geniuses” who peddle trade identification and win rates as the pinnacle of trading achievement. Unfortunately, there are no easy answers to this dilemma – and each discretionary trader must find ways to win individual battles within the larger war against self. I am not even sure that the specific “peace treaties” I have negotiated over the years with my inner enemies are the best solutions for all other traders.

Trading Psychology – The Human Side of Trading

Overcoming self and mastering Trading Psychology is an individual struggle – this is why consistent long-term traders have developed a tremendous and unbiased awareness of self. When I came into the trading business in the mid-1970s there was a saying around the Chicago Board of Trade that went something like this … “If you want to know yourself – all your insecurities, character faults, issues of pride, areas of greed or selfishness, unresolved traits, etc. – just become a trader. How true! Self-awareness and managing the Human Side of Trading is a hallmark of every great trader I have known over the years.I can describe some of the steps I have used to create a peace treaty with fear, false hope and greed.

  • De-emphasize open trade profits and focus on an equity curve based on sequential outcomes of closed trades.
  • Become an obsessed monster in managing losses during trading drawdowns so that the eventual hole I will need to dig out of is manageable – this will then make it easier to allow subsequent winning trades some room and time to develop.
  • Trade multiple contract positions and take some money off the table quickly on a portion of a theme. While this strategy reduces my long- term bottom line, it does moderate asset volatility and increase my staying power with the portion of a position which I hold for bigger gains.
  • Continue to refine “best practice” rules and guidelines for trade management and constantly remind myself of their purposes and intended outcomes.
  • Remove myself from monitoring markets intraday – thus, negating short-term emotional urges.
  • Focus on the process of trading and not on individual results.
  • Remain convinced (as I should) that optimizing trade outcomes is IMPOSSIBLE.

Traders who do not have specific trade management rules and guidelines face the biggest emotional turmoil because it becomes so easy for them to second-guess every decision – and this leads to the vicious cycle:

  • “I took profits too early and left a ton on the table – and now regret my decision”
  • “I did not take profits and the trade was a popcorn kernel – and now regret my decision”
  • And on and on it goes

The reality of trade management is that rules, guidelines and decisions CANNOT be optimized. If you come up with all the answers to this trading dilemma, please let me know.

 

Factor Membership

Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading.  Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

View your Factor Member options here.

 

You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work.   Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about.  For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

Factor Trading - An Introduction

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