Tag Archive for: European banks

Factor Update, June 25, 2017

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Update in Review

Current Factor Tracking Account Positions
  • Long Portugal PSI-20 ETF
  • Long So. Korea Kospi ETF
  • Long Canadian Dollar Futures
  • Short German 2-Yr Schatz
The focus of my attention this coming week
  • Managing current positions
  • Shorting 3-month EuroSwiss if signaled
  • Buying Singapore Index if signaled
  • Monitoring Canadian Dollar for a pyramid signal
plb
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pdf icon Factor-Update-June-25-2017.pdf
Factor Update, June 25, 2017

 

Interim Factor Update, May 24, 2017

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There will be no Factor Update this weekend due to family travel for the U.S. Memorial Day Holiday.

 
This abbreviated Interim Factor Update is being written On Wednesday morning.
 
Factor Tracking Account Positions (as of this writing):
  • Short USD/SEK — two tranches
  • Long GBP/USD
  • Short U.S. Dollar Index
  • Long So. Korean ETF EWY
  • Long Portugal ETF PGAL — two tranches
USD/SEK — a 15-week rectangle has been completed. For the bear case to work it is important for the cross to not close above 8.7600. A close above 8.8246 would completely nullify my analysis. 
 
Inline image 1
 
PGAL — A major bottom has been established in the Portuguese equity market. I will take some money off the table if 11.88 is reached, but my intermediate target is 16.56.
Inline image 2
 
GBP/USD — the 6-month H&S bottom continues to drive this market. Some short-term damage would be done if the cross punches out of t bottom of the running channel.
Inline image 3
 
U.S. Dollar Index — The dominant chart construction on the daily graph continues to be the downward completion of the 14-week wedge. For the sake of capital preservation I am not willing to let this market dig very far into my pocket before throwing in the towel. 
Inline image 4
 
EWY — the major chart story is the completion of a multi-year congestion on the monthly graph.
Inline image 5
 
Markets under review
July Soybean Oil — this market still sets up for a buy as long. However, a close below 32.23 would alter my thinking.
 
Inline image 6
 
EuroSwiss — See Factor Alert dated May 23. The charts indicate that SNB is poised to alter its 29-month adventure in NIRP. The weekly chart exhibits a descending triangle, the daily chart (Jun 2018) displays a H&S top. This contract is denominated in CHF.
 
Inline image 7
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Russell 2000 — the daily chart is forming a 6+ month right-angled broadening pattern (some chartists call this a megaphone). One of my trading principles is to be short the weakest member of a category when short and long the strongest member of a category when long. Russell has been the weakest major U.S. index for some time and is thus my candidate for the short side. A close by the spot index below 1330 would complete this top pattern.
 
Inline image 9
 
S&Ps — as a chartist I am prepared to trade in any direction, letting the charts show the way. The strongest U.S. stock index is the NASDAQ, but it lacks a chart pattern to offer measured-risk timing. The S&Ps are forming an ascending triangle, typically a bullish pattern. A close above 2410 would be quite constructive and indicate a possible swing target of 2477.
 
Inline image 10
 
EUR/USD — the weekly chart rectangle continues to be the most compelling chart in the world.
 
Inline image 11
 
European banks — I continue to monitor the H&S bottom patterns in DB, UBS and CS (DB shown). Perhaps if these H&S bottoms are completed I won’t screw up the trade like I did in Lumber Liquidators.
 
Inline image 12
 
XLF — while the charts of European banks are bottoming with the H&S pattern, the U.S. ETF Financial Select Sector XLF displays a H&S top. This combination sets up a very interesting hedged trade. A decisive move below 22.89 (Magee &Edwards 3% rule) will put me short. A decisive close above 24.09 negates my analysis.
 
Inline image 13
 
Palladium — I am including this for instructional purposes because I doubt the market will accommodate my intentions to short a rally to 785. The rally on May 22 & 23 should be the extent of the corrective rally. The target is 714.
 
Inline image 14
plb
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Factor Update, May 21, 2017

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Update in Review

Current positions of Factor Tracking Account
  • Long spot GBP/USD
  • Short U.S. Dollar futures
  • Long So. Korea Kospi ETF
  • Long Portugal PSI-20 ETf
The focus of my attention this coming week will be upon
  • Managing current positions
  • Shorting USD/SEK if signaled
  • Shorting Financial Select Sector etf (XLF) if signaled
  • Shorting EuroSwiss (interest rate futures) if signaled
  • Buying Soybean Oil futures if signaled
This Factor Update also includes a two page opinion piece on why I believe Cryptocurrencies are in a bubble of historic proportions. 
 
plb
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pdf icon Factor-Update-May-21-2017.pdf

 

Factor Update, May 21, 2017

A Turn of Fortune for European Banks

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European banks – H&S bottoms forming in major banks

Huge H&S bottom patterns continue to form on the weekly graphs of some major European banks.   UBS, Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank are shown in the charts below.

UBS traded through its neckline, but the ex-dividend adjustment put prices back under the breakout level. Factor is flat, but I would consider buying UBS if it climb above 18.01.

 

European Banks – UBS

European Banks - UBS - Factor - Peter Brandt

 

European Banks – Deutsche Bank

 

European Banks – Credit Suisse

 

 

 

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Factor Update, May 14, 2017

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Features of this Factor Update

  • Gold is NOT cheap relative to global equity markets
  • European continue to trace out bottoms
  • Portugal PSI-20 is early in a long-term bull trend
  • Bitcoins — a correction (maybe major) has begun
  • FTSE registers new all-time record high
  • Crude Oil could be retesting its H&S for the next drop down
  • Kospi — Korea is the hottest thing going
  • Palladium is building the mother of all wedges
  • U.S. Dollar Index is poised to go either way
Thanks to all of you who participated in this past week’s Factor Webinar. A recording will be posted in our Multi-Media Room next week.
The entire RealVision video series will soon be made available to all Factor members.
plb

pdf icon Factor-Update-May-14-2017.pdf

 

Factor Update, May 14, 2017

Factor Update, May 7, 2017

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I am entering the weekend with the heaviest position load I have held this year. I am long U.S. and global equity indexes and U.S. equities and a three currency positions, carrying a leverage ratio of 3.4 ($344,000 of underlying exposure per $100,000 of trading capital) and a margin-to-equity ratio in leveraged instruments of 19.3%.

 
The election in France is likely to create volatility on Monday. I have the feeling that Monday will likely be a day of strong gain or severe pain — given that 2017 to-date has been a challenge I really do not like this feeling. Yet, I am trading the charts for what they currently offer — and we will see how things end up.
 
plb

 

 

pdf icon Factor-Update-May-7-2017.pdf

 

Factor Update, May 7, 2017

Factor Update, April 30, 2017

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Features of this Factor Update

  • European bank stocks are forming massive H&S bottom patterns
  • Portugal is entering a prolonged bull trend
  • GBP/USD is subject to disruptions from the French elections
  • New Zealand Dollar is poised for a sharp decline
  • Silver continues to be the sucker play of 2017
  • EuroStoxx Index could experience a sharp advance in the weeks ahead
  • U.S. grain markets have entered a prolonged bottom process — Soybean Oil could be the first to establish a significant advance

 

Factor Update, April 30, 2017