Tag Archive for: RB_F

A bearish chart case for RB Gas

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Bear market rally is likely over — a longer-term retest of $1.23 to $1.30 could be underway

 

The rally from the Jan 2015 low in RB Gas can be viewed as simply a retest of the 3-1/2 triangle top on the weekly graph, as shown below.

7.15_RB_W

The daily graph of Sep RB Gas has completed a H&S top pattern with a down-slanting neckline and abbreviated right shoulder. Both of these conditions are characteristics of internal market weakness.

7.15_RBU_D

The targets in Sep RB Gas are 1.6344, then 1.5315. Eventually the market should retest the low established in Jan at 1.23xx.

 

$RB_F, $UGA

 

Gasoline prices are ready to ignite

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Heating Oil and Gasoline are poised for a possible price explosion

There is an old adage in the commodity markets — “A market that won’t go down will probably go up.”

This adage applies to Heating Oil and RBOB Gasoline. Despite bear trends in many of the commodity raw material markets in recent months, the Crude products have been unable to establish bear trends.

The weekly and daily RBOB Gasoline graphs display 8-month bull wedge patterns. The nature of the decline from the May high has not been impulsive. This is an indication that the bull trend from the late 2008 low is not over. Depending upon how one draws the boundary line from the early May high, the market is quite close to a breakout.

The weekly Heating Oil chart shows even more resiliance and appears ready for another significant leg up in its bull trend.

There is a pure ETF play in the Gas market. UGA displays a solid line of support at $45. This level provides a logical spot for protecting a long position.

Markets: $HO_F, $RB_F, $UGA

 

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