Trading Commentary – Page 14 – Peter Brandt

Global stock indexes

July 11, 2016/by Peter Brandt

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Crude Oil Descending

Crude Oil is descending out of a triangle pattern. The daily graphs show clear signs of topping in the energy markets. The daily graph of Sep RB Gas has completed an 11-week H&S top pattern with a target of 1.3237.

A couple of observations on daily continuation graph (true range) of Crude Oil are worthy of note. First, the 5-month up channel from the late Jan lows has been clearly violated. The breaking of an advancing trendline (lower boundary of a channel) is never a bearish signal in and of itself. Trendline breaks are simply an indication that the behavior of a market is changing. Second, the Crude Oil decline on Jul 7 completed a small descending triangle top with a target of 43.65, then 41.09. Factor is short Crude Oil.

Factor Membership is now available where trade setups such as Crude Oil are just one of numerous themes in focus each week. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

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Factor Update – July 10, 2016

July 9, 2016/by Peter Brandt

This content is for members only

Silver Bull Market - Factor - Peter Brandt

Silver and Gold Confirm Bull Market

July 6, 2016/by Peter Brandt

Silver and Gold Confirm Bull Market

Silver and Gold have made some decisive moves of late. It must be emphasized that the long-term trend in Silver and Gold is up. I believe we are now witnessing a Silver Bull Market and a Gold Bull Market. Despite the fact I have preferred the long side of Silver over the long side of Gold, I have grossly underestimated the power of this Silver trend. Thus, a reappraisal of the Silver chart is in order.

The advance on Jun 29 met the target of 18.52 established by the Apr 12 completion of an 8-month H&S bottom. As a result, Factor is now flat in Silver. This trade ended up as a 554 BP profit, thus establishing Silver as a qualified member of the 2016 Best Dressed List and a Bottom-Line trade for Factor.

Silver Bull Market

It is possible to interpret the strength in Silver this past week as the completion of a possible 33-month H&S bottom with an extremely abbreviated right shoulder. The target of this pattern is 22.40, although a retest of the 2011 and 2012 lows just above 26.00 is very possible. I am most interested in buying a meaning correction in Silver, although I doubt that a hard retest of 18.00 (right shoulder high) will occur. Traders who focus on Fibonacci corrections should remain alert.

Gold Bull Market

The broadening pattern is typically reversal in nature. Very rarely will a continuation broadening pattern occur. The advance in Gold in early Feb 2016 completed a 16-month falling wedge bottom with a target of 1392, as shown on the first daily chart shown below.

The advance on Friday reconfirmed the likelihood that the broadening triangle is continuation in nature — with a target of 1407. Thus, the next target in the bull Gold market is in the 1392 to 1407 zone. Factor established a long position in Gold on Friday afternoon.

Factor Membership is now available and the Silver Bull Market and Gold Bull Market will be of prominent focus. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

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