Posts

Who is More Precious

An excerpt from the past weekend member report.

Gold (NYMEX)

The possibility of a massive inverted H&S pattern on the monthly graph is noted once again. The daily chart displays a small H&S top pattern. A completion of this H&S top would do some damage to the near-term bullish case.

 

 

 

Platinum (NYMEX)

The WBB advance on Thursday completed a 7- month ascending triangle on the daily chart. Support should exist at the 881 level. The target is 1001. The breakout of this pattern occurred during my nighttime hours and Platinum is a market in which I do not use overnight entry stops.

Factor is flat in the futures market. Instead I bought PPLT, the Platinum ETF as a means to more precisely control sizing. The target on the PPLT daily chart is 92.14.

 

 

 

 

Factor Membership

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Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work.

Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

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Understanding Trading Outcomes

Understanding trading outcomes through the lens of probability theory

 

Reviewing trades offers the opportunity to unpack the impact of random probability upon a sequence of trading events. An extremely simplified view of probability theory relative to trading goes something like this:

  • A prolonged sequence of futures (or FX, equities, cryptos – pick your poison) trades with a fixed $1000 profit target and a fixed risk of $1000 (normalized for underlying trends) should produce profits in 50% of the trades. A net loss would occur over time due to trading fees.
  • A prolonged sequence of futures trades with a fixed $2000 profit target and fixed risk of $1000 risk (normalized for underlying trends) should produce profits in approximately 33% of the
    trades. I would have a “killer” trading program if I could achieve a 50% win rate with a 2:1 win-size/loss-size ratio.
  • A prolonged sequence of futures trades with a fixed $4000 profit target and fixed risk of $1000 risk (normalized for underlying trends) should produce profits in approximately 20% of the
    trades. Just imagine how profitable this profile would be if only 1/3rd of trades scored a win.

Many traders only enter trades with a profit/risk ratio of 3:1. I understand the concept behind this – although I do not pay much attention to profit-potential/risk ratios in my own trading because I move my stop aggressively even though I may hold fast to a target.

Active and aggressive trade management DRAMATICALLY alters the probability calculus. While the math
is complex, think of it this way:

  • My five year ratio of avg. profit size to avg. loss size is 3.8 to 1
  • My five year Profit Factor (PF) is 5.1

IMO, the PF is a better metric to reflect the projected ratio of win-size/loss-size for the purpose of understanding the impact of random probability.  A 5.1 metric is the rough equivalent of rolling the number 1 on a six-sided die (the probability is 1/6 or 16.6%). It is interesting to note that this percentage figure is similar to the percent of trading events that tend to put in my bottom line in most years. Coincidence? No.

Random probability theory applies best to the “law of large numbers.” Over a shorter series of events just about anything can happen. The point of this discussion is that thinking of trading in terms of “win-rate” over an extended period of time is a meaningless metric. I encourage traders to investigate a deeper understanding of the calculus of trading.

My three “take-aways” from this discussion are:

1. Avoid using simplistic performance metrics such as “win-rate” to understand the dynamics of a trading approach/program.
2. Trade identification (the “signal”) is far less important than risk and trade management.
3. Protecting one’s pile of chips is job #1. All approaches to market speculation run into losing streaks. Things will eventually get sorted out as long as the pile of chips remains mostly intact.

 

 

Factor Membership

.

Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work.

Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

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Trading Drawdowns

Discussion on Trading Drawdowns

Trading Drawdowns

The following video comes from one of our Factor Member Webinars where Peter discusses Trading Drawdowns.

  • What are drawdowns
  • How to handle drawdowns.
  • What am i doing wrong?
  • What did I miss?
  • How normal are they?

 

 

 

 

Factor Membership

.

Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work.

Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

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Some Energy

Here are just a couple of sample Energy possibilities from the past weekend member report.

 

IPE Gas Oil

The daily chart of Apr Gas Oil (diesel) completed a H&S bottom on Wednesday. Factor is long. I entered this market because its horizontal neckline and right shoulder were clearer than the necklines and right shoulders on the Brent and WTI charts.

 

 

RB Gas

I bought RB for the Factor Prop Account.

 

 

Brent Crude

Different charting techniques can provide slightly different tactical implementation. The RealRange neckline (red) was violated on Wednesday, the H/L/C chart on Thursday. Factor is flat.

 

 

 

Factor Membership

.

Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work.

Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

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Forex ideas - Factor Trading

Some Possible Forex Ideas

Here are just a couple of sample Forex possibilities from the past weekend member report.

 

GBP/NOK

This forex cross continues to display a possible 28-month ascending triangle. I really like this pattern – but I do not like the volatility that Brexit is likely to create with any trade involving the British Pound. I am willing to go with an upside breakout of this pattern, but sized small (perhaps as small as 20,000 GPB/NOK per $200k of trading capital).

 

 

 

This cross is forming a possible rounding or complex H&S top. I am watching this cross carefully for a trading opportunity. This cross should be immune from the craziness of Brexit.

 

 

USD/JPY

I am displaying a chart of USD/JPY as a reference point for JPY because of my interest in CHF/JPY. If there is a pattern, I like less than a prolonged symmetrical triangle on a daily chart it is a prolonged symmetrical triangle on a weekly or monthly graph. Nevertheless, USD/JPY is coiling. Factor is flat – I have no trading interest in the Yen.

 

 

 

Factor Membership

.

Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work.

Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

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Soft Commodities are Shaping Up

Many of the Soft Commodities are Shaping Up well and starting to show constructive charts.

Corn

Currently flat and working on a buy strategy.

 

 

Milling Wheat

Waiting for a breakout here.

 

 

Sugar

I will wait for a closing price completion of the inverted H&S before taking action.

 

 

Soybean Oil

Long Soybean oil.  Friday’s sharp decline places the near-term trend in Soybean Oil into some question.  Advanced stops.

 

 

 

Factor Membership

.

Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work.

Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

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Thought’s of a Full Time Trader

 

From our Member Q&A archives we believe you will find this video interesting.  How should a part-time trader manage what can be a full-time job trading to be successful. How does Peter manage his trading schedule?

 

 

 

Factor Membership

.

Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work.

Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

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The Spirituality of Trading by Brett Steenbarger

This content is for members only

Tweet Storm

While on Twitter last night, I engaged followers in an unscripted Q&A session.  The exercise was quite enjoyable in fact and we thought we would share the experience on the website today.    Here is a transcript of that Tweet Storm for you.

 

 

Factor Membership

.
Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

Factor Trading - An Introduction

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A Final Move

The dominant chart construction in Gold continues to be the possibility of an inverted H&S bottom pattern on the weekly and monthly graphs.  Note: Some of you might have read that Ray Dalio (Bridgewater) is accumulating a sizable position in GLD. I believe Dalio will be right, but that he is early. See http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-13/ray-dalio-goes-gold-buying-spree-adds-575-gld-holdings-becomes-8th-largest-holder

 

 

 

I have written extensively about the possibility of a Q1 low at or just above 1200. The daily chart displays a possible continuation descending triangle. Depending upon how/time of day this pattern is completed I may be willing to take a shot at the short side.

 

 

SILJ – Jr.  Silver MinerETF chart hasbroken down

 

The weekly chart of PureFunds ISE Junior Miners (SILJ) displays a completed 14-month descending triangle. Factor is short with a target at 6.41

 

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Factor Membership

.
Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading.  Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work.   Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about.  For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

Factor Trading - An Introduction

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