Thoughts on a Weekend Afternoon, July 30-31, 2022

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Thoughts on a Weekend Afternoon, July 23-24, 2022

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What does the future of grain prices look like?

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Factor Member Webinar July 2022

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Factor Member Webinar and Q&A with Peter Brandt - Recorded live July 8, 2022 Opening discussion/presentation by Peter  Live questions from Members  
  1. How likely do you think the Bitcoin bottom is in? Do you think we are missing a bottoming pattern? 2:23
  2. Do you change your position size going into major events? How about adding to the position if the news goes in your favor? What events are most important? 7:30 
  3. Can you recommend sources of online commentaries and analysis on the fundamentals of agricultural commodities, esp. grains (supply, demand, plantings, etc.)? 10:43
  4. Have you ever met a successful day trader in your career? By day trader, I mean someone who gets in the market at open and is flat by closing. 14:49
  5. How will you manage EUR-USD with today's doji reversal? 16:58
  6. Could you please discuss the seeming paradox of aggressively mitigating risk on a per position basis, while also staying steady even through drawdowns on an account value basis? 20:31
  7. Does palladium look like it broke out today? 27:23
  8. Can I get a quick comment on the weekly breakouts in USD/PLN and USD/ZAR? 28:43
  9. If you have a loser much bigger than your avg loser, would you close a parallel winning position in parallel, which can compensate the loser? Even if this winning trade runs good. I think in terms of preserving NAV as key metric. 31:11 
  10. Has your portfolio backtested your approach? Thinking more in terms of correlation risk on a portfolio and position sizing optimization rather than entry/exit etc. 32:25
  11. I am wondering if there are any good books or educational materials regarding the ag markets and cyclical tendencies on which contracts to focus on? New crop vs. old crop and knowledge may keep a futures trader out of trouble. 37:09 (Book Link: A Complete Guide to the Futures Market Technical Analysis, Trading Systems, Fundamental Analysis, Options, Spreads, and Trading Principles by Jack Schwager)
  12. I find I get chopped up with stops (both entry and exit) on the back months for futures. My background is trading a CTA where we trade on close of each market and do so manually as I manage to add positive slip by doing so. But we always trade front month. Do you have any advice on how to trade the less liquid months? 39:27
  13. Could you please walk through the diamond setup in European carbon credits? 42:48
  14. Please address the topic of taking signals from smaller continuation patterns from within a 'strong trend' that has already lasted a good length (historically) and could be tired? 45:04
  15. Do you see any signs of bottoming in biotech? Xbi? 48:00
  16. Can you review your methodology of placing stops for an initial BO entry and then how to move them up on a trailing basis? 49:23
  17. What currency brokerages do you recommend? 52:48
  18. What is your take on having diverse trading systems as recommended by Mark Andrew Ritchie in his Trading Bible? 54:46 (Book Link: My Trading Bible by Mark Ritchie)
  19. When setting an exit stop on a long position, do you subtract the same percentage of ATR from a key chart point as you do with your entry stops, or do you use a different percentage of ATR? 56:25 
  20. Latest thoughts on AUDUSD? 56:57
  21. Can you comment on what you're looking for before entering a short on Soybeans, Soybean Meal, and Canadian Dollars? 59:12
Read More

Thoughts on a Weekend Afternoon, July 16-17, 2022

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The Monthly | Blog Edition | June 2022

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A glimpse inside the Factor Member Portal

From the just-completed month

June Numbers

  • Tweets posted on our Private Member Twitter: 177
  • Updates and Special Reports posted on the Member site: 8

Snippets from Thoughts on a Weekend Afternoon

Peter’s thoughts on the finished week and the week ahead | Issued most weekends

Commentary

There are times when break-even trading is about the best I can expect. I am OK with break-even trading.  Treading water is way better than sinking. No matter if the markets are difficult or if I am making them difficult, if I can keep my capital intact eventually things will get back on track. Five of the last seven tranches I have closed have been for a loss. Over the years I have learned (sometimes reluctantly) to have patience for better times. Over-eagerness to get trading back on track can lead much deeper into a drawdown.

U.S. Dollar Index | June 12th report

The USDX is taking another attempt at the upper boundary of a massive rectangle. If this rectangle is completed, I will look for an opportunity to go long.

Corn | June 26th Report

The weekly continuation chart displays a clear possible H&S top, but the same pattern does not appear in the New Crop contracts. I will review the shorting opportunities in the Dec contract if and when the weekly chart H&S is completed.

Factor Member Private Twitter

Top Seven Tweets

Recommended Watching

Most People Have No Idea What is Coming – Ray Dalio’s Last Warning, YouTube Link

Real Vision Visionaries with Mark Ritchie II – Intro Video

Become a Factor Member

Members receive:

  • Trading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
  • The Weekend: Thoughts on a Sunday (Weekend) Afternoon
  • The Monthly: Issued monthly, will provide an overview of the completed month and highlighted member content
  • Private Twitter Page: Real-time alerts on interesting charts and observations, member dialog, the process of trading, the human aspect of trading, and risk/trade management (streamed on the member site as well)
  • Webinars: Periodic member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
  • Knowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of trading content
  • Automatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published
  • Factor Report Educational Papers: Periodic educational and instructional documents

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

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The Monthly – June 2022

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Thoughts on a Weekend Afternoon, July 9-10, 2022

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MEMBER WEBINAR: July 8, 2022 at 3p Central, Market Review and Q&A with Peter Brandt

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Thoughts on a July 4 Weekend, July 2-3, 2022

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