Entries by Peter Brandt

Who is More Precious

/by

The possibility of a massive inverted H&S pattern on the monthly graph is noted once again. The daily chart displays a small H&S top pattern. A completion of this H&S top would do some damage to the near-term bullish case.

Understanding Trading Outcomes

/by

Reviewing trades offers the opportunity to unpack the impact of random probability upon a sequence of trading events. An extremely simplified view of probability theory
relative to trading goes something like this:

A prolonged sequence of futures (or FX, equities, cryptos – pick your poison) trades with a fixed $1000 profit target and a fixed risk of $1000 (normalized for underlying trends) should produce profits in 50% of the trades. A net loss would occur over time due to trading fees.
A prolonged sequence of futures trades with a fixed $2000 profit