Introduction to the concept of “Leakage”

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Risk and Trade Management Compilation

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Building Performance, One Trade at a Time, November 2019

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Factor’s Trade Risk Worksheet Grid

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The Factor Trading Plan – Simplified Version

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Trade Entry and Exit Tactics

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Three Most Important Ways to Measure Performance: Profit Factor, Gain-to-Pain Ratio, and Closed Trade NAV Curve

Human beings exist day-to-day in a world preoccupied by statistical measures, ranging from numerous personal health metrics, to standard weights & measures, to determinants of economic well-being, to statistical definitions of every area of our lives. Modern society could not exist without measuring nearly every conceivable thing. Yet, many traders make no attempt to convert their trading performance into meaningful metrics. This is unfortunate because meaningful metrics are not simply interesting statistics — rather they can serve important functions. Read More

How to Determine the Sizing of a Trade

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Risk Management Quick Tips

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Layering and Trade Management

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A Brief Introduction to Probability Theory and the Random Distribution of Results: Understanding the Concept of Sequencing in a Trading Operation

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The Factor Chart Lab

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Setting Targets – Video

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PHO – Case Study

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The Factor Tracking Sheet Explained – Video

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IDing, Sizing, and Entering a Trade – Video

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Hierarchy of Principles to Tactics – Advancing Stop Orders in the Direction of a Profitable Trade

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Negative-carry and positive-carry forex trades

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3-Day Trailing Stop Rule (3DTSR)

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What constitutes a breakout in futures and forex markets?

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Converting from a Part Time Trader to a Full Time Trader

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Trading Futures and Forex Markets with $100k

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Orders — It is All About Order Flow

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Factor Bag of Tricks

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My Trading Day

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Weekly Chart Patterns – Posted Aug 2021

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The Head and Shoulders Pattern

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The Hierarchy of Chart Reliability

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Richard W. Schabacker

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What is a decisive breakout?

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Classical Charting 101

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Continuation vs. Continuous Futures Charting

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Volume as an Important Indicator

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Compound Fulcrums

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Philosophy of Charting

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The Importance of Intra-Delivery Spreads

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“Coulda, woulda, shoulda” – a mindset that is NOT conducive to successful market speculation

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PETER BRANDT CFA MAGAZINE interview October 2018

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Trading Commentary – 2013 re-lived

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Drawdowns

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The huge mistake for a discretionary trader is to get lured into trading simply out of the anxiety of missing moves that are taking place.

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Losing a lot to win in the end

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It’s harder to manage a profitable trade than a losing trade

 Profitable trades are the hardest trades to manage
 
Trades that are somewhere between break-even and an eventual price target are the hardest trades for me to manage.
 
I have no trouble exiting a trade that turns quickly into a loss or challenges my entry level a few days after I enter the trade. 
 
I also have no trouble taking profits at the target level I predetermine for a trade.
 
It is between these two extremes that managing a trade is difficult. There is an old trading adage:
 
"Cut losses short, let profits run"
 
Easy to say -- hard to do, especially the "let profits run" part of the adage. In practice letting profits run is one of the most challenging parts of trading. On one hand I  want to give a trade ample opportunity to trend toward a profit target. On the other hand I do not enjoy letting a profitable trade return to the starting gate ("Round trippers" is my name for these trades). Finding the balance is the issue. 

Great Traders are Underwater Most of the Time

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Expectations – The Enemy of Traders

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Explaining the Dominant Fundamental Factor

Dominant Fundamental Factor

I have a theory about the U.S. stock market (and all other markets). I have no idea if I am right or wrong, but I believe with all my heart I am right. The theory is that there is only one major fundamental or global macro factor (at the outside, maybe two) that drives a major trend in the U.S. stock market. I call this theory the "Dominant Fundamental Factor." All the other apparently important fundamental factors just create confusion and market noise. Read More

Learning From Trades That Do Not Work

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Real Vision interview – September 16, 2021

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Real Vision Futures Masterclass: Back to the Future (w/ Peter Brandt and Mish Schneider)

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Real Vision interview – May 3, 2021

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Real Vision Crypto Gathering March 2021 SESSION 3 – IT STARTS WITH CHARTS Laura Shin, Willy Woo, and Peter Brandt

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Talking Trading with Caroline Stephen – February 15, 2021

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Real Vision interview – January 19, 2021

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Real Vision interview – August 11, 2020

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Interview: The Final Bar – June 2, 2020

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Real Vision interview – April 15, 2020

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Factor November 1, 2019, Chart Scroll with Peter

Chart Scroll with Peter This webinar joins Peter on his weekly chart scroll (500+ markets / 2hrs) Recorded live: November 1, 2019 Read More

Cointelegraph June 27, 2019

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Factor Member Webinar December 2018

Factor Member Webinar and Q&A with Peter L. Brandt - Recorded live December 5, 2018  Updated Member Q&A section on the website  Opening discussion/presentation by Peter 
  • Standard Deviation 
  • Tracking Account 
  • Trading less - what does that look like 
  Live questions from Members  
    1. Documenting your trades - I would be interested in understanding how much information you gather for each one of the trades you put on. What kind of journal do you hold excel, paper or any other method? Do you archive your charts? Do you have a small comment as to why you put on the trade and the amount of risk? When you review it post mortem - What is process for reviewing your trading plan based on your trading journal? And how do you incorporate that into your future approach? 20:04
    2. When you move a stop to breakeven is this entry price or entry minus the partial profit taken and breakeven considering this partial profit? Also, is the 100bp partial profit taken 100bp return on account based on the partial position closed or 100bp return if the entire position was closed? 24:23
    3. Possible H&S in gold? 26:18   
    4. Why doesn’t Factor include the nominal value of interest rate futures contracts in capital utilization calculation? 29:12
    5. In the CME Agricultural Futures markets, do you recommend to only have entry and/or stop loss orders active during pit trading hours? 31:15
    6. Is it possible to identify a false breakout before it occurs? 33:51
    7. My questions are $BTC related. 1) Will there possibly be a dead cat bounce and what will be the estimated range before it drops to 3k range? 2) Do you expect BTC to touch the 5700-6200 massive resistance before it bottoms? 34:44
    8. Often Peter talks about a low-risk entry. Can he go over a couple examples? I’d like to better understand what he takes into account to pull the trigger on a chart that has met his pattern criteria. 36:41
    9. Could Peter discuss the use of the hikkake pattern? When is it best used in terms of a technical setup? Or how does he use it? Is there a target price associated with it? 41:44
    10. I subscribe to Aksel's Tech Charts Service too. Can you tell us why you were not very interested in trading equities? Furthermore, what's the main difference and precautions one needs to take if trading global equities alongside with global futures markets? 44:34 
    11. You've described trading like throwing mud on the wall to see which one sticks. From that analogy, can one say the that more mud you throw the more successful ones one can find? In other words, if we don't loosen the standard, diligence in finding and monitoring more markets leads to better profitability? 46:00
    12. “N.Y. ‘C’ Markets from Hell” –  Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton and Copper you dislike. Can you elaborate? 47:15
    13. Does a 50 basis point risk refer to .5% risk of the particular position? Or of the trading portfolio? 48:25
    14. I read your blog post you brought up on Twitter yesterday and was wondering if you could provide more details on the stop-loss setting and adjustment techniques you employ that increase your gain-to-pain ratio. I have read your other posts about the 3-day trailing-stop-rule and was wondering if you could fill in some details. (Apologies, I haven't yet read "Diary" so you might answer this question there.) 49:17
    15. How does Peter enter orders? I know that he used to wait until the market closed but changed it in recent years. Does he have entry stops in the markets? Or does he have alerts and decides whenever he gets an alert? 50:31
    16. How do you handle patterns that are obvious where everyone is watching them, and potentially crowded? Would a trade like yields breakout be lower odds due to this? 52:12  
    17. If you had NOT had Pit Trading experience back then, how would you trade those markets today?  Many of us came into trading long after the Pits closed & those markets turned to Electronic trading. 54:08
    18. What qualities of a chart do you find have real predictive value? 55:28
    Reminder to access all archived Q&A webinars and past interviews go to Factor Members / Reports / Factor Multi-Media Room on the website. 
Read More

Factor Member Webinar November 2018

Factor Member Webinar and Q&A with Peter L. Brandt - Recorded live November 7 &10*, 2018  Opening discussion/presentation by Peter 
  • Market review 
Live questions from Members  
  1. I struggle to include trading activities into my daily schedule and I would like to know how Peter does it or suggests how to do it. I am not a full-time professional trader.That means I have full time job, however, at work I can usually manage to have access to my trading account within two hours. But, I also have business dinners, a small child which I take care of, play sports, and do activities with friends. What is the right thing to do from a trading perspective when a breakout happens or an alert pop ups when I am doing these activities? Should I finish them and then go to a computer? Should I always have my computer with me sneak out and do trading activities? Should I arrange my day that I have full time access to my trading computer? As far as I understand it Peter does not sit in front of the computer all the time. How does he manage his trading activities when he is at dinner or away for a few hours? 20:34 
  2. Peter often refers to his change to an Aggressive Risk Management - what are the parameters and details around this? 32:23
  3. Please show CCJ Comeco Uranium again. Where did you place your entry and where was your stop? After today - would you exit the trade, move your stop or wait? 37:09
  4. INDA 12wk H&S top, why 100BP? ITA 7 month rectangle, why 38BP? GE EURO DOLLAR 12wk rectangle and 4 mo descending triangle - why 44 BP? 38:41  
  5. Are there markets where it is fine to use GTC orders with execution possible outside of regular trading hours or does Peter re-enter orders for each market, each day.  It must get complicated when trading Asian, European and US contracts if entering orders daily for each market. 40:59
  6. Why do you advise traders to avoid day trading? 42:55
  7. USDZAR - Setting up a descending triangle, would you take it? Why or why not? 45:18
  8. This is a bit operational, but is there a service that you know of which constantly provides the next 2-3 futures contracts automatically rather than having to manually change watchlists to reflect current contracts? Or does Peter have to manually go through and update watchlists for new/expired contract. 46:39
  9. Describe your use of Bollinger Bands ... and compare the BB's with Keltner Channels, if you use them. I noticed your use of the BB's on a chart you pulled up when answering a question from your July webinar. 47:57
  10. Recently I was in a EURUSD trade with about 25 pip risk and got stopped with 10 point slippage (35 pips 10 extra = 40% extra risk).  I was using Interactive Brokers.  I am wondering if I could have avoided this had I traded the Euro futures contract. In your experience do brokers penalize with more slippage than the futures exchange would have? 50:31
  11. You mentioned in another webinar - you prefer to trade futures vs currency pairs when you have a choice and one reason was because “you know your counter party risk in futures market”.  What does that mean? 52:07   
  12. I would like to understand to what extent you follow fundamental factors and use them in your trading decisions. From the content online it seems that sometimes you do think about them in terms of finding a bias to a chart but at other times you say you ignore them completely. 54:20  
  13. Van Tharp stresses the importance of trying to achieve large R multiples on the winning side to compensate for all the small losses. And Van Tharp stresses letting your profits run. In contrast, Peter has price targets and takes his profit when the target is met. I would be interested in hearing Peter talk about this for a moment. 56:30  
  14. When do you consider a pattern backtest is no longer worthy of an entry. Let's say for example a pattern completed and broke through resistance. Let's say the price went 50% of the way to your target after you break through resistance but then comes back to test the previous resistance (which is now support). At what point do you consider the pattern complete? If it does come to backtest support after going 50% of the way to your target, do you consider this still a possible entry? How would your view change if it wasn't 50% but maybe 60%, 70% or 100% of the way to the target? Is there a time criteria that you might also use to consider a pattern a dud or complete? 58:46
  15. How do you determine if you should take profit at the measured move for that pattern, or if you should just build a position (with trailing stops)  because you think it has much more to run? 1:01:35 
  16. The biggest challenge I have seems to be managing stops, I get stopped out often and lose the opportunity to the gains. I have been trying to learn the way Factor is managing stops, but it is not yet clear to me about how to use the rules. When is the 3 Day Stop Rule applied and how to manage it? 1:02:10
  17. Why do you sometimes trade differed contracts further out vs current contract? Do you do this because the chart setup is cleaner or looks better? 1:04:19
  18. In his book, Schabacker talks about "The Complex Pattern" - head and multiple shoulders OR multiple head and shoulders. This is a more reliable reversal than normal H&S. I never see Peter mention this pattern, does he consider it valid? If so, does he see this pattern developing in Silver or Litecoin at the present moment? 1:05:57
  19. As most Futures Exchanges are imposing higher data fees, what is your advice for startup CTAs to manage costs effectively? 1:08:08 
  20. Completed patterns in years past, you stated could be “taken to the bank.” I do not find that the case today. Do you agree and what fundamental shift must a Classical Chartist make today? 1:10:53 
  21. As we are aware, Peter trades across markets (from Futures, Spot FX to Cash Equities); how does he manage his trading? Specifically, his signals and Order Management book 1) Aside from classical chart patterns, how does Trade Navigator augment his process to confirm buy/sell signals? 2) From past articles, he mentioned that most orders are manually entered and for certain markets he does not place stops (overnight). With recent volatility (mid-term elections), has there been exceptions to his rules? 3) Previously, my past understanding was CQG Trader (API Bridge) into ADM (for Futures); Interactive Brokers (for cash equities) and possibly Saxo/IB (Spot FX). Is this still the case? 4) Is Trade Navigator still the main tool to manage all orders? 1:12:43
  22. What are your current stop-raising protocols?  3DTSR on the 4-Hour chart? 1:16:57
  23. If one traded solely on the weekly close or Real Range for determining pattern boundary lines vs spindles is that a viable way or should spindles be more/= important? 1:17:31
  24. Beginning with equity of only $100,000, which often limits multiple contract etc., is it still worth the effort to trade due to the limi ted options of that amount? So what is the optimal initial equity amount to make significant trading progress…$200k? 1:17:55
  25. You said you don't trade volatility, long or short. Why is that? Does classical charting principle work in the vol space? 1:18:49
  26. What qualities of a chart have real predictive value? 1:19:37
  27. In years past you made many more trades in a week than now. That provided greater opportunities to increase your equity (with risks also, I know) but with fewer trades done today, it would appear a full time career in trading patterns is highly limited, do you agree? 1:19:53 
  28. There are QO and YG in mini gold contracts. Why do you prefer YG over QO? How about copper's mini contract? 1:21:45
  29. Can you explain the difference between continuous and near-by chart? How do you use them? 1:22:41 LINK to document Peter mentioned 
  30. Can you comment on HQY stock breakout, is that a trade you'd take?  Why or why not? 1:23:34
  31. Do you usually use the 55 or 57 charts for futures when using Trade Navigator? What do you prefer to use when getting an overview on a market? 1:23:52
  32. How did you quit trading big after your initial win that greatly helped you establish a portfolio in the proper size? 1:25:16
  33. Current thoughts on BTC?  1:27:04
Reminder to access all archived Q&A webinars and past interviews go to Factor Members / Reports / Factor Multi-Media Room on the website.  *Due to the length and detail Peter wanted to give on our first question followed by technical difficulties our webinar was recorded on two different days. Read More

PETER BRANDT CFA MAGAZINE interview October 2018

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Real Vision Think Tank One on One with Peter Brandt September 2018

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Factor Member Webinar August 2018

Factor Member Webinar and Q&A with Peter L. Brandt - Recorded live August 16, 2018 Opening discussion/presentation by Peter 
  • Twitter
  • Public obsessions 
  • Market review 
Live questions from Members  
  1. Do you think fix bet size (risk per trade) can improve performance? 11:12
  2. What were the main challenges early in to your career between age of 32 to 35. 13:37   
  3. Do you consider Long USD trades and Long treasuries a positive corrected trade? 16:25
  4. How do you overcome the fear/hesitant when buy/sell signal is triggered? How to overcome the discipline to stay on the trade plan.  If the trade signal is rare, I start to take suboptimal (lesser quality) trade. I realize it after I took it and lost money. 17:03
  5. How do you typically trade/pyramid multiple contracts? 20:38
  6. When did you first get the confidence to apply such an aggressive stop style? 21:53
  7. How many basis points are you currently risking on the various patterns? 23:04
  8. Do you have any physical/mental exercise in the beginning of your career? 25:50
  9. You often reference that you are looking for an entry but are waiting to see an opportunity risk/reward entry.  Can you help me understand more precisely what you are looking for, specifically considering that you say that one shouldn't be constantly monitoring the market. 26:56
  10. Overnight risk - How do you protect yourself for the gap if you don't activate the stop in most of the markets overnight? What if in the overnight market your 60 basis points risk tolerance has become 150 basis point, and that creates a gap at the open for a big loss? At that point do you exit right at the open or do you wait and see? Is there a list of markets that you think overnight stop orders are OK. Is overnight order to be stopped into a position OK? 29:44
  11. I have been reading your book in depth (ever since the conference in May in FL).  I managed to get 5th and 6th Edition of Edwards & Magee's book "Technical analysis of stock trends" - I know you say to read first half of the book.  But which section is this.  Are you talking about the book being split into Part One and the chapters in it. Part 2 has some chart topics too...or should I only focus on Part 1 area and which is better book Edition 6 or 5? 32:48 
  12. Can you tell us your experience with limit up/limit down? Does it still happen? How would we prepare ourselves to be never caught up by them if/when it happens again? 34:20
  13. Thoughts on: 1. Dow - with yields expected to go lower and a rotation into industrials, do the charts support the thesis that YM would be the preferred long in US equities? 2. Platinum: positioning in PL is extreme and we seem to be close to capitulation. Are you watching this market? 35:28
  14. I understand the goal is to move stop to break even as soon as one can. But is there a rule to follow? Any systematic way to think about it? 4-hour chart support? Daily movement percentage? Can you show us some recent example? 37:38
  15. Can you give any advice on what brokers, etc. to use to trade cryptos? 40:07
  16. Right now, IF I want to short oil, is it better to go with Brent or WTI? Why? I'm more interested in your thinking and not really taking a shot right away. 41:39
  17. I'm a new trader and your "Introduction to Probability Theory and the Random Distribution of Results" really hit home with me. Where can I find the calculation details you used so I can run different scenarios? 42:44
  18. Where can we get more info on: 1. Volume in conjunction with H&S or other breakouts 2. interpretation of COT profile, Commercial long and Spec short 43:44 
  19. How would you rate the current environment in terms of trading richness? 44:35
  20. Who do you trade Cash FX with? 45:37
  21. Whats your decision process to long S&P500 vs Russel, NASDAQ100 or Dow? 47:05
  22. Can you elaborate more specifically on issues you have with calling H&S pattern in $EUR-USD? 48:21
  23. Can you show the NZD/USD trade, and where you would set stops along the way.  Also with the big margin $38K, contrast that to doing 6N futures instead. 49:42 
  24. Why it is difficult to make money in market? From your experience, why are the majority losing traders? 51:06
  25. Do you have a certain way of journaling each trade? Do you have an exact trading plan written down and referenced often? 54:55 
  26. Do you play any card games or have, that you may think helped you blackjack / poker? 55:36 
Read More

Factor Member Webinar July 17, 2018

Factor Member Q&A with Peter L. Brandt - Recorded live July 17, 2018 Opening discussion/presentation by Peter 
  • Factor Tracking Account Update
Live questions from Members  
  1. What are your thoughts on the current movement in gold? 11:06
  2. Does Peter think to have a macro perspective (for example, follow things like RealVision) is an advantage when trading Factor principles or a disadvantage? 13:39
  3. Wedges: preceding action - Sometimes wedges form after a strong move in the opposite direction. 15:32
  4. Would you have made more money if you had traded Stocks only? 16:29
  5. Do you trade the commission or non-commission forex pairs usually? 17:23
  6. This is a two part question. In one of your recent newsletters, you mentioned that you have changed to trade management approach during the last few years, namely selling half when reach 100bp in profit and raising stop to even as soon as possible. But that selling half into strength part is not always included in your Factor analysis. So my question is 1. Do you do this differently in your prop account, but not in the Factor account? 2. How do you reconcile that by selling half earlier, it will be much more difficult to get the "bottom liners"? 18:22 
  7. How much emphasis do you place on volume these days? Can you please speak a bit more how you view/use volume when trading futures/forex? 22:45
  8. Do you or have you ever looked at Fibonacci analysis? If so, which levels have you found to be most consistent (even though you might choose not to use them at this stage)? 25:00
  9. How you decide to move stops, did not understand the real tight move in the IWM based on volatility. 25:29
  10. I understand that Peter has been cutting down trade size dramatically since about the book "Diary" time. The main reason behind that is because Peter is approaching the retirement age or he simply believes the time has changed and trader shouldn't take 3% loss anymore. 27:54
  11. I’m curious to your average risk sizing YTD. Seems like LDR has been difficult to apply on $100k account size. Are you applying different initial risk tactics recently? 29:05
  12. You've mentioned that you don't trade single name equities and from what I recall that decision is driven by the leverage that can be applied. Am I correct in my recollection? If you could lever single name equities like futures would you trade them? 32:16 (Link to document referenced https://www.peterlbrandt.com/trading-futures-forex-related-etfs-foolish-use-capital/) 
  13. The death cross of the 30 week MA and the 50 week MA will happen in around 3 weeks. In case that the $5750 was the market bottom what are the possibles outcomes which the market could react when the death cross happens? Usually the market makes lower lows when this happens. 33:35
  14. How do balance aggressive risk management with "letting winners run”? 33:53
  15. Double tops / bottoms - I don't see many of these on your reports. Is there any particular reason for t his? 36:22
  16. Both E&M and Schabacker were written with single stocks in mind and with the Daily charts as primary tool of analysis. Your Q&A says (And this is clear from your reports) you don't generally follow single stocks. E&M and Schabacker were very confident that these methods work for single stocks. Do you think they work less well nowadays? Or do you think someone who applies your trading methods to liquid single stock should achieve similar returns to what you achieve on currencies, stock indices and commodities? E&M required a 3% margin of safety to accept a trading signal. Do you think that is still optimal for single stocks? 37:26 
  17. You've mentioned your experience of loneliness while trading - How do you address this? Outside of the Factor Community, how have you built and managed relationships as a lonely trader? 41:09
  18. When do you consider fundamentals or look at fundamentals? If you don't how do you manage the media/news/information around fundamentals? 42:58
  19. What makes you think your strategy needs adjustment and how often do you review your strategies for adjustment? 44:33
  20. If BTC has an INTRADAY WBB Candle breaking out above $6829 (completing the 5 Week H&S Bottom) combined with Volume Breakout and Diverging Bollinger Band s, how sure can we be that it does not come back under 6829 by 00:00 UTC (end of day)? What is the strategy for that? Stop-Loss at ~$6750? 46:38
  21. The H&S failure is the only failure that you actually trade. Since so many of the formations fail - by your own admission you expect a trade to fail at inception, as the winning percentage is below 50% - do those failures themselves present trading opportunities with manageable risk? 51:14
  22. Would you have traded Feeder Cattle Head and Shoulders. I did today and got stopped out. 52:26
  23. You mentioned the other week that over time you’ve added chart patterns to your library, and gave one example of “ottoman with chair”. Would you be able to share th e other with us over time/in a special piece. 53:18
  24. How do you determine how many bps of risk you will apply to each trade? For an account size of $250,000, trading only equities, how much do you recommend each position size be around? 53:53 
  25. Can you please speak to moving stops once position has gone your way? 55:05
  26. Do you trade BTC futures through an exchange and if so which one do you use? 56:40
Mentioned in webinar hikkake pattern 8:48 Read More

The Economic Times February 19, 2018

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The Economic Times February 14, 2018

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A Real Vision Video Series with Peter Brandt EPISODE FIVE – THE PROCESS OF TRADING

CHARTING MASTERCLASSES FROM A TRADING LEGEND
Peter Brandt is a classical chartist and has been a trading legend in the foreign exchange and futures markets since 1975. In this exclusive five-part series, Peter shares his knowledge and the framework he has developed to trade successfully with chart-based analysis.
EPISODE FIVE – THE PROCESS OF TRADING
Our exclusive series chronicling the life and career of classical chartist and trading legend Peter Brandt concludes with Episode 5 – The Process of Trading. In this episode, Peter breaks down the “dead serious” business of trading, running through his process every step of the way in a typical week at Factor Trading. It’s a process that has been enduringly successful with a track record of 40% returns over a 40-plus year career.
Read More

A Real Vision Video Series with Peter Brandt EPISODE FOUR – THE HUMAN ELEMENT

CHARTING MASTERCLASSES FROM A TRADING LEGEND
Peter Brandt is a classical chartist and has been a trading legend in the foreign exchange and futures markets since 1975. In this exclusive five-part series, Peter shares his knowledge and the framework he has developed to trade successfully with chart-based analysis.
EPISODE FOUR – THE HUMAN ELEMENT
Peter Brandt examines the often ignored but crucial human element of trading, which plays such an important role in market speculation. Peter says, “If you want to really know yourself, become a trader.” Watch as he isolates the impact of emotions and how to manage them to give traders an edge.
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A Real Vision Video Series with Peter Brandt EPISODE THREE – CLASSICAL CHARTING & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

CHARTING MASTERCLASSES FROM A TRADING LEGEND
Peter Brandt is a classical chartist and has been a trading legend in the foreign exchange and futures markets since 1975. In this exclusive five-part series, Peter shares his knowledge and the framework he has developed to trade successfully with chart-based analysis.
EPISODE THREE – CLASSICAL CHARTING & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Peter Brandt delves into the world of classical charting and technical analysis. Peter explains what charts can tell you and importantly what they can’t, with a lesson on the major pattern formations he looks for and the crucial ability to spot false breakouts. There’s also a number of practical examples of how price trend action has followed chart patterns in some of the major commodity and foreign exchange markets.
Read More

A Real Vision Video Series with Peter Brandt EPISODE TWO – RISK MANAGEMENT

CHARTING MASTERCLASSES FROM A TRADING LEGEND
Peter Brandt is a classical chartist and has been a trading legend in the foreign exchange and futures markets since 1975. In this exclusive five-part series, Peter shares his knowledge and the framework he has developed to trade successfully with chart-based analysis.
EPISODE TWO – RISK MANAGEMENT
Charting Masterclasses from a Trading Legend continues with Episode 2 as Peter Brandt outlines the backbone of his trading philosophy and what keeps him in the game – Risk Management. In this episode, Peter spells out the ratios and rules he has lived by throughout a 40-plus year career trading commodity futures markets and the principles that guide him as a classical chartist.
Read More

The Economic Times October 24, 2017

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A Real Vision Video Series with Peter Brandt EPISODE ONE – A LIFE IN CHARTS

RealVision produced a wonderful video series about my life as a trader, I hope you enjoy it. It was a joy to work with the fantastic team at RealVision. My thanks goes out to the entire RealVisionTV team for their hard work and dedication to this project. Peter   CHARTING MASTERCLASSES FROM A TRADING LEGEND  Peter Brandt is a classical chartist and has been a trading legend in the foreign exchange and futures markets since 1975. In this exclusive five-part series, Peter shares his knowledge and the framework he has developed to trade successfully with chart-based analysis.   EPISODE ONE – A LIFE IN CHARTS In Episode 1, Peter takes Raoul Pal through his fascinating life story, from how he discovered charts and the importance of risk management to the mentality of markets and what they can teach you about yourself. Read More

Factor Member July 2017 Webinar and Q&A

Factor Member webinar and Q&A with Peter L. Brandt - Recorded live July 6, 2017 Opening Market Review with Peter 
  • For this webinar Peter will go through his process of reviewing charts, identifying candidate trades for the period ahead, determining tactical considerations and entering orders.
Live questions from Members  
  1. Could you talk more about your data feed, Trade Navigator. Do you import from other feeds as well? Why do you like it? 35:24
  2. Please make a quick follow up on the ED6vsED12 trade opportunity. 37:17
  3. You noted the possible move up in Wheat a few weeks ago. Was the pattern for the upturn that evident versus what you had seen for the last few months? 38:50
  4. I have a question on the below point that Peter made in his blog — “Never, I mean never, place resting stop orders in the overnight markets. Limit orders are ok. The overnight market represents a den of thieves.” Please explain 43:18
  5. Would you go long JJG and/or DBA given your view that grains have higher to go from here? 44:51 - Document referenced in answer from our Member Library - Trading futures and forex related ETFs is a foolish use of capital
  6. EUR/NZD 46:26
  7. What do you think about the potential rectangle completed in bunds today? 48:29
  8. What is your opinion on SDG/JPY? 50:55
  9. On gold where do you target the downside and what is your stop on the upside? 51:28
  10. What about considering EUROSWISS spreads in addition to an outright short position (similar to the idea behind the eurodollar spreads)? 52:49
  11. Once you are in a trade, how often do you adjust your stops? Daily? 54:51
  12. Do you use Gain Capital for forex? 56:35
  13. Role of volume in Head and Shoulder pattern...Where can we read more up? 57:26
  14. Peter any thoughts on AUD/NZD. It's done nothing for 3 years… 58:01
  15. Would you consider the Coffee ETF JO to be in a falling wedge since 11/7/13? 58:52
  16. Where do you get the commercial/specs positions data? 59:15
  17. Do you also look at seasonality tendencies? 1:00:35
  18. Have you done some studies on using a moving average vs the 3 day rule at 70% to exit? 1:01:17
  19. Do you take the dollar into consideration when trading NZD/USD or other major pairs? 1:01:57
Read More

The Economic Times May 23, 2017

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Factor Member May 2017 Webinar

Factor Member Q&A with Peter L. Brandt - Recorded live May 11, 2017 Opening discussion/presentation by Peter 
  • Factor Tracking Account Update
  • Current Market Conditions
Live questions from Members  
  1. You used to report your prop account trading but no longer do so. Do you plan to provide this information again? 15:09
  2. In your vast experience is it best to: 1. Buy a partial position in anticipation of a break out? 2. Enter a buy stop just above the break out point? 3. Wait for the 3% close above the ice line and enter at the end of the day this occurs? 17:01
  3. Referring to the Portugal PSI-20 Index analysis published by FACTOR: Why is the 17 year bear market close to an end if the trendline hasn't been broken yet? What characteristics is Factor seeing on the triangle pattern to validate a break on the respective down-trendline? 21:01
  4. FACTOR published a chart regarding EUR/GBP in February. Head and shoulders weekly structure seems to be completed, whats your opinion about this trade? Is this head and shoulder formation still valid? 23:17
  5. About the Ripple (XRP) Cryptocoin: Major banks and financial institutions are really interested in this cryptocoin and they are even testing it on big transactions. Do you see a huge buy opportunity in here? Or do you think it will be a pump and dump situation? 25:33
  6. Your thoughts on the gap in NZD/USD? 26:53
  7. Which vendor would you recommend to trade Forex? No, of course to IB. 28:43
  8. How do you manage a runaway profitable position (e.g., bitcoin)? Take all profits at a target price or sell in increments (e.g., 10% @ x, 10% @ y)? 30:49
  9. How do you deal with a situation where two charts are telling you two different stories about something specific? If we can use a recent experience as an example. The dollar index looked bullish to me (descending wedge), whilst the EUR/USD chart also looked bullish to me (recent break higher). Do you: A) Trade both? B) Trade neither? C) Make a decision as to the more compelling trade and trade that one only? 33:11
  10. I trade across multiple asset classes. The one that I am least familiar with is the commodity market. Are there any specific nuances to the way this market trades that stand out to you as important to understand as contrasted with other markets to help guide my trading here? 35:41
  11. In recent Factor updates, you review the UBS AG@NYSE chart. I had to play around with the “unsplitting” of the prices….this is not something I recall being mentioned in determining the appropriate view of any charts. What is the significance of split versus unspilt prices? How would a trader know when this might be factor in the version the chart being viewed? 39:18
  12. Do you know what percent of your members trade full time? 43:25
  13. You wrote that grain markets are in a long bottoming process. What patterns, signals or clues do you look at during the coming weeks to confirm that bottom is completed? 44:46
Read More

Factor Member April 2017 Webinar

Factor Member Q&A with Peter L. Brandt - Recorded live April 13, 2017 Opening discussion/presentation by Peter 
  • Factor Tracking Account Update through April 13, 2017
  • Drawdowns
  • Underwater Curve
  • Factor Chart Pattern Trading Grid: Trade Management / Pattern Eligibility Time Framing
Live questions from Members
  1. In last months Q&A, you mentioned having reduced the trades from 20 to about 8 per month (you have noted this a number of times before of course) due to the break outs not being as successful in years past. You have resorted to 10+ week patterns. Based on that, does it stand to reason there is a substantial lessening in the amount of money that can be made trading classical patterns vs. years ago? 24:49
  2. In trading grains (corn, soybeans, wheat), is seasonality a useful information? Does Peter rely on such data in addition to classical charting? 26:34
  3. There is an alert on TLT which says a close above 123.31 is the trigger. Should a limit order to buy be placed at 123.31 with the target being 128.93 as shown on the alert or do you wait for the close to be above 123.31? I do not see a recommended stop, so I would think it to be the double bottom around 123. 28:39
  4. What’s your view on Sugar? 32:12
  5. Gold has broken up this week and USDJPY has broken down — the negative correlation between gold and USDJPY continues.  How much longer do you think this correlation will continue? 34:05
  6. From observing your approach, you seem to primarily trade trends. Have you every thought about trading ranges? 35:09
  7. What do you think of  EUR/SGD? 36:22
  8. As a discretionary trader, how can I know I have an edge? As a chart pattern trader, do I need to do the backtest? 37:43
  9. Do you believe the markets are or can be manipulated by the "market makers"? Do you consider this in your trading? 39:03
  10. Is there a way to trade volatility? Surely, it will lift significantly at some point, VIX? 40:31
  11. Lets say with intro of quants and computer programs to do the trading, do you believe chart patterns is becoming obsolete. In old times, market was 100% psychology but computer and quants take psychology out of market and their share of trading is increasing, would patterns still be relevant in future? 41:11
  12. Bonds broke out to the upside and small caps look weak. But you're not in either? 42:25
  13. You spoke glowingly about your being able to have a life as a trader. You have also mentioned it is now very competitive to trade. Would you then recommend that an individual in 2017 make a career of being a trader as you are? 43:18
  14. Would it be helpful to learn a programming language to be able script simulations on potential filters, rules, etc. 44:43
Read More

Factor Member March 2017 Webinar

Factor Member Q&A with Peter L. Brandt - Recorded live March 8, 2017

Opening discussion/presentation by Peter - Drawdowns

Live questions from Members
  1. You're measuring DD on closed equity based on weekly closes? 22:23
  2. What do you think the bottom for WTI oil is? 24:18
  3. When you wait for a market to close beyond the boundary of a technical formation, do you actually execute the trade on the open of the following day? Or do you execute it just a few minutes prior to the closing bell? 26:02
  4. You mentioned that you cap your risk to about 100bps per trade. Do you also have a limit on the aggregate risk for the whole portfolio, say 1,000bps or 1,500bps etc? 29:27
  5. If the market touches your stop so briefly that only a part of your position is closed out but then quickly reverses direction and moves in your favor again, do you keep holding your remaining position or do you close it now, at the somewhat-better-than-stop price? 31:08
  6. Do you always have a stoploss order entered during the day for every position?  Do you worry about your stops getting runned by the computer trading? 32:03
  7. What was it that made you go long on the FTSE 100 recently? The breaking of the new high or did you get in prior to this? 34:02
  8. In your latest book you say, you have additional quality requirements to diagonal patterns. Which are those and how do they compare in quality to horizontal — i.e. possible to reach similar quality with diagonal patterns as with 10W horizontal or 6-8W continuation pattern? 35:06
  9. On the stop loss: does make sense to use tec level for Stop loss and or volatility determined stop loss? 36:38
  10. What is your view about the effect of computer/algo trading on chart pattern-based trading over the next several years? 37:17
  11. How often do you use commitment of traders data? How important is it to confirm your chart reading? 38:08
  12. What does "record" mean when you referred to record spec longs and record commercial shorts in the COT data? Does it mean the highest number for the period you're looking at or does it mean the highest number of all time? 39:37
  13. You mentioned that you prefer to trade futures over FX. However, in your 2016 Factor Tracking account, spot forex was traded more often than their futures equivalent. Why is that? 40:15
  14. What securities/assets do you EXCLUDE in calculating your Total Trading Capital? Can those assets included in Total Trading Capital be invested in other things or trading strategies, or should they be sitting in cash with zero risk exposure? 41:16
  15. How many tightly correlated markets do you allow yourself to trade in the same direction simultaneously?  For example short Yen and short Gold? 43:00
  16. With respect to equities do you ever care about valuations or do you just use your process and focus purely on charts. I just don't want to be left holding the bag. 43:54
  17. When you miss a trade do you often trade the retest and if you do, do you put on the trade at the boundary line or a certain % above the boundary line. 44:33
Read More

Factor Member Feb 2017 Webinar

  Factor Member Q&A with Peter L. Brandt  Recorded live Feb 9th, 2017 Read More

Jack Schwager – Peter Brandt Interview – Part 3 (Final)

Jack Schwager - Peter Brandt Interview - Part 3

  Part Three, 45 minutes - Jack interviews Peter: Personal worst trading mistake, getting out of a trade, four pillars of the Factor Service, favorite and least favorite patterns, trading plan now vs. just starting out, worst mistakes traders make.  Final interview of the series recorded in December. . https://youtu.be/5JM0uBGnxIE Read More

Jack Schwager – Peter Brandt Interview – Part 2

Jack Schwager - Peter Brandt Interview - Part 2

  Part 2 of the three part interview series recorded in December. Read More

A Market Wizards Dialogue

A Market Wizards Dialogue - Jack Schwager - Peter Brandt Interview - Part 1

Below is the first of a three part interview with Jack Schwager Market Wizards author and Peter Brandt CEO and founder of Factor Trading.  We sincerely hope you enjoy and receive great value from all of our free content.   Read More

October Webinar Recording

October Webinar Recording

This webinar was recorded live October 13, 2016 for members of the Factor Service.  We are releasing this month's webinar (one time only) as a public blog post for all to see.  More information on the content and discussion points of the webinar can be found below the video.  Details regarding the Factor Service can be found near the bottom of this post. Read More

Factor Member October Webinar

  Peter Brandt - Member Webinar. Recorded live October 13, 2016 Read More

Factor Member Monthly Webinar – Sep 22nd

Recorded live September 22, 2016 Discussion Points
  • Edge - The nature of a trading scheme that provides it with the ability to carve out beta against its appropriate benchmark universe
    • Classical chart patterns - in and of themselves - provide no meaningful trading edge - in fact, no trade identification mechanism provides a meaningful edge
    • Win rate - in and of itself - provides no meaningful trading edge
  • Factor’s Edge - Factor’s edge is attributable to four primary things
  1. An emotional separation from the need to be right
  2. Aggressive risk and trade management protocols resulting in many non-injurious losses - protecting trading capital in the SINGLE DOMINATE PRIORITY
  3. Identifying and committing to very selective highly asymmetrical reward-to-risk trades
  4. Allowing the odds to provide a few trades that work immediately and provide profits of 350 to 450 plus basis points each
  • Soybean Oil - Walking through the trade
Read More

Factor Member Q&A with Peter L. Brandt – August Webinar

Factor Member Q&A with Peter L. Brandt

Recorded live August 18, 2016 Discussion Points
  • Important clarifications
    • Last Day Rule
    • Twitter messages
  • Keeping the main things the main things
    • Trade identification (signaling) provides no real edge
    • “Edge” is gained by…
  • Key Factor Metrix
Read More

Member Webinar Recording

  This is a recording of the Friday June 24th Factor member Webinar event. Read More

Webinar – Factor Trading

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Webinar with Trade Navigator – Session 2: Classical charting principles that really matter

Session 1 - Why 80% of novice speculators are looking for answers in all the wrong places Session 2 - Classical charting principles that really matter - this post  Session 3 - Risk management the Factor way (there was a sound issues in the recording, a playback is NOT available)   Read More

Webinar with Trade Navigator – Session 1: Why 80 of novice speculators are looking for answers in all the wrong places.

  • Session 1 - Why 80% of novice speculators are looking for answers in all the wrong places - this post
  • Session 2 - Classical charting principles that really matter
  • Session 3 - Risk management the Factor way (there was a sound issue in the recording, a playback is NOT available)
Read More

Kumutha Ramanathan interviews Peter Bandt for World Finance

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My Thoroughly Enjoyable Interview with Charles Kirk

Peter Brandt

The following is an interview I recently conducted with Charles Kirk of the Kirk Report. I highly recommend his research service. PLB   To conclude my summer interview series, I cannot think of a more interesting, knowledgeable and experienced trader to interview than Peter Brandt! When I asked members in the mid-year membership survey for recommendations on who to interview next, Peter's name was near the top of that list. It is obvious to see why - his website has become a trusted resource among many and, like many of you, I have also found Peter's analysis consistently interesting and insightful. Peter has shared quite a few gems with us in the following interview and offers keen insight for both new and experienced traders alike. We hope you find this interview helpful to explore some ideas and methods in the development of your own strategy. Q&A with Peter Brandt Read More

Mercenary Trader Interviews Peter Brandt

Mercenary Trader Interviews Peter Brandt   Read More

The Factor Report – April 2020 Member Letter

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Imperial College COVID-19 Response Report

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January 2020 Letter to Factor Members

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Factor Special Report on Gold and COT data, December 2019

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The January EUR/USD Effect for 2020 (December 16, 2019)

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Article by Brett Steenbarger on the success of new traders

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Indicators of Stock Market Top

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The Spirituality of Trading by Brett Steenbarger

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Roy Longstreet Interview by Intermarket Magazine 1985

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George Soros and the British Pound — A Case Study

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A Real Vision Video Series with Peter Brandt EPISODE FIVE – THE PROCESS OF TRADING

CHARTING MASTERCLASSES FROM A TRADING LEGEND
Peter Brandt is a classical chartist and has been a trading legend in the foreign exchange and futures markets since 1975. In this exclusive five-part series, Peter shares his knowledge and the framework he has developed to trade successfully with chart-based analysis.
EPISODE FIVE – THE PROCESS OF TRADING
Our exclusive series chronicling the life and career of classical chartist and trading legend Peter Brandt concludes with Episode 5 – The Process of Trading. In this episode, Peter breaks down the “dead serious” business of trading, running through his process every step of the way in a typical week at Factor Trading. It’s a process that has been enduringly successful with a track record of 40% returns over a 40-plus year career.
Read More

A Real Vision Video Series with Peter Brandt EPISODE FOUR – THE HUMAN ELEMENT

CHARTING MASTERCLASSES FROM A TRADING LEGEND
Peter Brandt is a classical chartist and has been a trading legend in the foreign exchange and futures markets since 1975. In this exclusive five-part series, Peter shares his knowledge and the framework he has developed to trade successfully with chart-based analysis.
EPISODE FOUR – THE HUMAN ELEMENT
Peter Brandt examines the often ignored but crucial human element of trading, which plays such an important role in market speculation. Peter says, “If you want to really know yourself, become a trader.” Watch as he isolates the impact of emotions and how to manage them to give traders an edge.
Read More

A Real Vision Video Series with Peter Brandt EPISODE THREE – CLASSICAL CHARTING & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

CHARTING MASTERCLASSES FROM A TRADING LEGEND
Peter Brandt is a classical chartist and has been a trading legend in the foreign exchange and futures markets since 1975. In this exclusive five-part series, Peter shares his knowledge and the framework he has developed to trade successfully with chart-based analysis.
EPISODE THREE – CLASSICAL CHARTING & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Peter Brandt delves into the world of classical charting and technical analysis. Peter explains what charts can tell you and importantly what they can’t, with a lesson on the major pattern formations he looks for and the crucial ability to spot false breakouts. There’s also a number of practical examples of how price trend action has followed chart patterns in some of the major commodity and foreign exchange markets.
Read More

A Real Vision Video Series with Peter Brandt EPISODE TWO – RISK MANAGEMENT

CHARTING MASTERCLASSES FROM A TRADING LEGEND
Peter Brandt is a classical chartist and has been a trading legend in the foreign exchange and futures markets since 1975. In this exclusive five-part series, Peter shares his knowledge and the framework he has developed to trade successfully with chart-based analysis.
EPISODE TWO – RISK MANAGEMENT
Charting Masterclasses from a Trading Legend continues with Episode 2 as Peter Brandt outlines the backbone of his trading philosophy and what keeps him in the game – Risk Management. In this episode, Peter spells out the ratios and rules he has lived by throughout a 40-plus year career trading commodity futures markets and the principles that guide him as a classical chartist.
Read More

A Real Vision Video Series with Peter Brandt EPISODE ONE – A LIFE IN CHARTS

RealVision produced a wonderful video series about my life as a trader, I hope you enjoy it. It was a joy to work with the fantastic team at RealVision. My thanks goes out to the entire RealVisionTV team for their hard work and dedication to this project. Peter   CHARTING MASTERCLASSES FROM A TRADING LEGEND  Peter Brandt is a classical chartist and has been a trading legend in the foreign exchange and futures markets since 1975. In this exclusive five-part series, Peter shares his knowledge and the framework he has developed to trade successfully with chart-based analysis.   EPISODE ONE – A LIFE IN CHARTS In Episode 1, Peter takes Raoul Pal through his fascinating life story, from how he discovered charts and the importance of risk management to the mentality of markets and what they can teach you about yourself. Read More

In 280 Characters or Less

This list is added to monthly. I am always amazed at how patterns tend to be repeated again and again over time. A particular pattern will form, and I will think to myself, “I have seen that before in this or that market.” Markets that are down hard during a week often have a profit-taking […]

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