2023 Markets and Best Dressed List Review – January 2024

  • Video recorded live on January 3, 2024
  • Review of 2023 01:11
  • Best Dressed List 19:05
  • Lessoned Learned 01:01:59
  • Q&A 26:15
Live questions from Members  
  1. You released a 1989 MTA Journal article, "Classical Charting Principle". In it, you outlined two trading approaches you had used back then. I'm wondering about the 1st approach, "Every Pattern Trading". You no longer trade it that way. Can you share what the reason is? Is it a change in market behavior, or is it simply you're tired of trading so many signals? 01:06:21
  2. In many creative fields, professional performance slides after the late 40s and declines rapidly after the mid-60s. From your performance, it doesn't seem that way at all. Do you consider yourself an outlier? Or is trading actually age-unrelated? 01:09:06
  3. How does Peter select the contract month for trading, such as choosing the May contract over the April one for the recent Soybean short? 01:12:13How do you decide which rollover method to use when charting continuous metal futures (gold, silver, copper)? The nearby contract is not a useful proxy for spot because of contango, and the charts posted on Twitter and Weekly reports have at times used Trade Navigator 055, 057 and 065. Could you explain your reasoning for choosing between those rollover methods when trading metals?
  4. How do you keep from repeating the same mistakes? I frequently loosen my stops? EG gold today; where were were/are you stops for gold today if you don't mind my asking. 01:15:05
  5. Regarding Avg Gains and Avg Losses on your Metrics page, at what threshold do you bucket breakeven trades into winners or losers? 01:17:41
  6. If we don't trade futures, what ETF would you trade for Japan? 01:18:38
  7. Can you please comment on entering an intra-day breakout as opposed to waiting for the close (as it relates to false breakouts)? 01:19:09
  8. Is there any possibility of Peter explaining ATR confirmation? 01:22:06
  9. Why did you stay in the Robusta trade rather than exiting completely at the target? 01:23:06
  10. How is Factor trading structured? What do you look for in an accountant who knows trading companies? What brokers are used to trade some of the more obscure futures, like those on the London and ICE exchanges? Is this all through IBKR? 01:23:52
  11. Do you have an opinion on AI being able to either compete with or enhance your process? 01:25:49
  12. How do you handle action like in the ZB pattern, with early breakout, which then retests deeply within the pattern, before working again? 01:27:04
  13. Is a pattern retest valid for a first entry, even though it may be a stop-out for an initial breakout position? ie, How will you manage the stop on the Soybeans trade if it retests? 01:28:07
  14. Can you explain why you use 8 MA? 01:29:31
  15. Can you review how you set different ATR Can you review how you set different ATR levels? 01:30:38
  16. Could you talk about trading addiction, and if a trader who has been addicted, could trade normally after working on it? 01:31:07
  17. When you re-enter a position that you were stopped out, do you still enter with a 100% position? 01:34:13
  18. Could you comment on resolving disfunction in following rules, esp related to sizing/risk? 01:34:51
  19. I thought I saw Peter's comment in Chart Wizards that classical charting patterns no longer work. 01:39:52
Mentioned in this webinar:  Read More

Factor Public Webinar November 2023 – Market Review and Q&A

Recorded live November 27, 2023 Overview 
  • Peter's background and how he trades 00:17
  • Charts on the radar screen 11:45
  • Q&A 26:15
Live questions from Members  
  1. You have a long-standing stance that Bitcoin has a 50% chance of continuing to increase in value and a 50% chance of going to zero...based on that, in what instance (or instances) would you see Bitcoin going to zero, and if that were the case, how fast could such an event happen? (i.e. zero overnight or would it take more time)? 26:15
  2. Which of your four pillars is the most critical and why? 28:03
  3. Are you still only trading weekly charts, or will you trade daily chart patterns as well? 29:40
  4. Any opinion on stock FLR? 30:51
  5. Any idea why did Edwards & Magee become more popular than Schabacker? 32:20
  6. Has this been one of your toughest years performance-wise? 33:50
  7. Are you looking at Forex pairs as closely as Futures contracts when you are charting and looking for potential positions? 35:57
  8. Do you trade altcoins too? Are you taking chart requests for altcoins? 37:44
  9. How do you decide where to set your stop when you enter a new position? 38:44
  10. In the FLR chart, do such patterns mean retesting the recent lows successfully by making a new Higher High again and again to break out? 43:33
  11. Using technical methods, what are good books for day/swing trading? 45:02
  12. Do you follow only Robusta or KC futures as well? 46:00
  13. In order of your top 3 or 4 preferences, what are your favorite patterns? 47:41
  14. Do you take the continuation pattern or the pattern of the contract month? 51:37
Link to Peter's recommended reading list on Amazon  Read More

Factor Member Webinar September 2022 – Drawdowns

Recorded live September 13, 2022

This webinar is specific to the Drawdown document issued on August 29, 2022, "The Dreaded “D” Word, August 2022"

Live questions from Members  

  1. Factor's underwater curve changed dramatically around 2014. Is this due to measuring DD using closed trade NAV, or due to aggressive risk management? 13:50
  2. What's your most remembered drawdown period? 16:01
  3. How much of the drawdown period is self-inflicted as in we make the period worse ourselves rather than sticking to the trading plan we all should have? 18:01
  4. What is an "acceptable" drawdown for those who have retirement accounts and do not have the ability to do shorter-term trades, hence, needing to hold longer? Whether that be an index fund, BTC, etc. 20:18
  5. I started paper trading eight months ago and have had equity vol but no progression; still at around break even. Very difficult to know if this is a natural DD or just not a working system! 23:22 (A Brief Introduction to Probability Theory and the Random Distribution of Results: Understanding the Concept of Sequencing in a Trading Operation
  6. What practical steps do you take to deal with mental torment? 25:57
  7. My data over two years shows that if I take every trade my total performance would be 6 X greater with fewer drawdowns. Common reasons for not pulling the trigger are: Pattern extended from MA's, Support/resistance close, pattern looks loose, not text book pattern, looking for more compression before breakout. However, looking back, they have more going for it than not. Do you have any advice here? 29:07
  8. You mentioned "be able to take many small losses", does limiting risk to 1% but not moving stops aggressively satisfy this? 31:38
  9. The first line in your how to have success in trading is having Defineable and Comprehensive trade. Is this a written document that you continually update? If so, is it fairly detailed and includes all of your trading weapons? I would love to see an outline if this is something that exists. 34:23 (BOOK: Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke
  10. How do you decide when to move stops and to where? 38:05 (A protocol for Entering Trades Using ATR Stop Levels
  11. What was the pivot to introducing varied bet size? My struggle is when to increase bet size, and if the next is a big winner then I'm missing out. 42:08
  12. Do you think it makes sense to start cutting trade size if you see lots of tradable patterns to limit the risk in having more signals than normal? 44:44
  13. Experience is the best answer to many trading questions ... Knowing your "edge" & knowing how to calculate that - Before! - placing a bet ... discovering this changed my life ... Thank you, Peter, for this discussion! 48:20
  14. You scale out of trades and less frequently add another traunch. Could you elaborate on when and how to take a second bite? 49:06
Read More

Factor Member Webinar August 2022

Factor Member Webinar - Market Review and Q&A with Peter Brandt - Recorded live August 29, 2022 Market Review with Peter  Live questions from Members  
  1. Can you talk about deciding what patterns to trade? I find myself unable to decide which patterns I should pass up and which I should trade. If I only trade "pretty" patterns, I miss the winners. But if I trade everything, my losers stack up quickly. Any advice on what to look for in this journey of discovering my sweet spot? Is trading every horizontal pattern longer than 2 weeks a fool's errand? 26:33
  2. You have previously said you need a "measured risk" to take a trade. But won't every pattern give you a "measured risk" using LDR? 29:11
  3. Will you add to a position if it gives you a buy signal and you can move your stop up on the existing position to allow for a larger position with no additional risk? If not, why not? 30:04
  4. As a price action trader, do you follow any Wyckoff observations on volume when evaluating a chart pattern? 31:16
  5. For those who have 401k's through their workplace that are equities only (ETF's, S&P 500, etc), do you have any recommendations for investing in equities...i.e. buy and hold, trend following, moving averages, etc? 32:56
Read More

Factor Member Webinar July 2022

Factor Member Webinar and Q&A with Peter Brandt - Recorded live July 8, 2022 Opening discussion/presentation by Peter  Live questions from Members  
  1. How likely do you think the Bitcoin bottom is in? Do you think we are missing a bottoming pattern? 2:23
  2. Do you change your position size going into major events? How about adding to the position if the news goes in your favor? What events are most important? 7:30 
  3. Can you recommend sources of online commentaries and analysis on the fundamentals of agricultural commodities, esp. grains (supply, demand, plantings, etc.)? 10:43
  4. Have you ever met a successful day trader in your career? By day trader, I mean someone who gets in the market at open and is flat by closing. 14:49
  5. How will you manage EUR-USD with today's doji reversal? 16:58
  6. Could you please discuss the seeming paradox of aggressively mitigating risk on a per position basis, while also staying steady even through drawdowns on an account value basis? 20:31
  7. Does palladium look like it broke out today? 27:23
  8. Can I get a quick comment on the weekly breakouts in USD/PLN and USD/ZAR? 28:43
  9. If you have a loser much bigger than your avg loser, would you close a parallel winning position in parallel, which can compensate the loser? Even if this winning trade runs good. I think in terms of preserving NAV as key metric. 31:11 
  10. Has your portfolio backtested your approach? Thinking more in terms of correlation risk on a portfolio and position sizing optimization rather than entry/exit etc. 32:25
  11. I am wondering if there are any good books or educational materials regarding the ag markets and cyclical tendencies on which contracts to focus on? New crop vs. old crop and knowledge may keep a futures trader out of trouble. 37:09 (Book Link: A Complete Guide to the Futures Market Technical Analysis, Trading Systems, Fundamental Analysis, Options, Spreads, and Trading Principles by Jack Schwager)
  12. I find I get chopped up with stops (both entry and exit) on the back months for futures. My background is trading a CTA where we trade on close of each market and do so manually as I manage to add positive slip by doing so. But we always trade front month. Do you have any advice on how to trade the less liquid months? 39:27
  13. Could you please walk through the diamond setup in European carbon credits? 42:48
  14. Please address the topic of taking signals from smaller continuation patterns from within a 'strong trend' that has already lasted a good length (historically) and could be tired? 45:04
  15. Do you see any signs of bottoming in biotech? Xbi? 48:00
  16. Can you review your methodology of placing stops for an initial BO entry and then how to move them up on a trailing basis? 49:23
  17. What currency brokerages do you recommend? 52:48
  18. What is your take on having diverse trading systems as recommended by Mark Andrew Ritchie in his Trading Bible? 54:46 (Book Link: My Trading Bible by Mark Ritchie)
  19. When setting an exit stop on a long position, do you subtract the same percentage of ATR from a key chart point as you do with your entry stops, or do you use a different percentage of ATR? 56:25 
  20. Latest thoughts on AUDUSD? 56:57
  21. Can you comment on what you're looking for before entering a short on Soybeans, Soybean Meal, and Canadian Dollars? 59:12
Read More

Factor Weekly Chart Scroll, Futures and Forex Markets – January 27, 2022

Factor Weekly Chart Scroll, Futures and Forex Markets - January 27, 2022
  • Chart scroll with Peter (1 hr 13 mins)
  • Live member Q&A
Live questions from Members  
  1. The Ultra T Notes contracts - Tell us why you trade the "Ultra" T Note contracts vs. the alternative T Note Contract - Symbol /TN on my TD Platform. 1:13:29
  2. I am working on taking quicker losses and reducing the number of trades that hit my full stop loss. Do you have any suggestions or methods to exit a trade early when you think it is not going in your favor? 1:14:52
  3. I find the short side is more volatile than the long. Can you please share your thoughts on how you adjust sizing? Also, what do you look for in setups that are different from the long side? 1:16:33
  4. I started preparing my buy list on the weekend, and I keep watching those lists throughout the week. However, I missed out on so many setups that emerged on the day which didn't exist during weekend preparation. How do you deal with that? 1:17:30
  5. I see you enter trades on support - breakout retest, moving average test, etc. Can you please elaborate on how you manage the risk on these? Any different from breakout trades? 1:21:09
  6. I am a new subscriber and relatively new to trading. I just wanted to ask if Peter would cover precious metals and his thinking behind Silver and the chart itself. 1:23:35
  7. Any advice for new members regarding navigating the markets/general advice for novice futures traders? 1:25:43
  8. Do you ever use support and resistance levels without a chart pattern to enter or exit a trade. If you do, when? 1:27:37
  9. Do you have any advice for someone nearing retirement age and contemplating entering the financial markets for the first time? 1:29:46
  10. How likely do you see Bitcoin dropping to 12,900 --target from the double top -- as you posted on the Factor Member twitter? 1:31:22
  11. FAQ - Do you ever see yourself hanging it up? Is trading what you’re going to do the rest of your life? 1:36:30
Read More

Factor Member Webinar December 2021

Factor Member Webinar and Q&A with Peter Brandt - Recorded live December 8, 2021 Opening discussion/presentation by Peter  Live questions from Members  
  1. What's the best place to start when learning how to enter and exit trades? 21:42
  2. Do you apply the same ATR filter on stops when exiting a position as you do when entering a position? And, if not, do you use another type of filter to reduce the odds of getting whipsawed by a price excursion that is still within recent volatility? 24:31
  3. I'm new to Factor LLC, so maybe this question is already asked many times. Do you take other fundamentals into account when trading futures - especially COT data / Open Interest? Or just chart patterns like SHS, Triangle, etc. 27:28
  4. If your equities only account is 500k, what would be your standard position size? 29:24
  5. TLT looks like a OOPs. 30:50
  6. What is the minimum account size needed in order to become a professional trader? 31:51
  7. Did you ever try to create a chart of your drawdowns? 33:37
  8. Could you do another session sometime on your weekend screening process? How many markets are you viewing? What service are you using? More about how you do this. 34:54
  9. I need a clarification (I am not a native English speaker, and I am afraid to make mistakes on such an important point). Your weekly/daily trend model for Bitcoin requires two weekly (or daily) candle closes above the 18 weekly (or daily) MA and also an uptick of the 18 weekly (or daily) MA. Correct? Would you mind explaining what exactly meets your criteria for an "uptick" in the context of this trend model? Also, is there any other component to this trend model that I have not detailed above and maybe I have missed? Have you come across, and could you please recommend, any services/tools that allow you to execute entries and exits as per your trend model in an automated way? How do you execute your entries and exits when you are taking some time off, given that crypto trades 24/7 and given that massive shakeouts (like last Friday) may happen even while you sleep? 35:43
  10. Your WEEKLY Trend Model seems down for Bitcoin but seems up for Ethereum. Have you already allocated (or are you planning to allocate soon) a portion of your Trend Model funds to ETH instead of BTC even if your trend model is down both on the weekly and daily for BTC ? In the past, BTC and ETH seemed highly correlated but not this time. What are your thoughts on what's currently happening and how do you plan on taking action? 40:54
  11. How do you use ADX? 41:08
  12. Is a 2021 Best Dressed list coming this year? Honestly, it's one of the best resources for a growing trader. 44:16
  13. How (if at all) do you allow yourself LATE entries when/if you miss the early portion of a breakout which: a) comes after a lengthy consolidation on the weekly timeframe b) shows a huge momentum c) price still has the potential to go higher based on Technical Analysis targets Is the answer different when you are trading crypto vs other assets? 44:54
  14. Do you find a lot fewer swing trading opportunities in futures in the last couple of years? 47:28
  15. Any recommendations for setting stops in a retirement account? It would be a loose stop, but not sure how loose to be. 49:09
  16. Silver. What gives? Frustrating market. And gold McClelllan is positive on gold. 50:49
  17. Where are you able to trade Bitcoin and ETH short with margin? 52:26
  18. Could you talk about the benefits of creating an LLC for trading a prop account? 53:40
  19. I am a new member. I want to ask about your risk-reward, I can see on the charts/opps you post that you normally put 1:1. Is this the case mostly? 54:40
  20. Can you please talk about the daily and weekly chart of ETH? I would like to know more about ETH? Is ETH the leader for crypto currency's now? Especially after holding $4000 since last BTC decline. 56:48
  21. What do you make of the cocoa chart? 58:41
  22. What should I read, how should I trade while I'm learning? 59:18
  23. I'm a relatively experienced stock, options, and equities trader. I've wanted to get into Futures for a few years now due to all the positives mentioned (great leverage, favorable taxation, etc). I'm confident at charting and trading Futures Continuous charts and have been keeping a paper trading log, but the technicalities of Futures contracts makes my head spin! I'm never sure which month's contract to buy based on my trade idea; sometimes the contracts are denominated in apostrophes (i.e. 32nds rather than decimals), some contracts are so large that even with a sizable account, I couldn't afford even 1 contract, and I am paranoid I will accidentally hold a contract through expiration and be beholden to physical delivery! How would you recommend an independent trader without access to a trading floor mentor get a grasp on the world of Futures trading from a terminology and execution standpoint? 1:01:09
  24. When choosing which month to trade in a futures market, what do you look at aside from OI? 1:06:05
  25. Amazon chart. Another frustrating stock. 1:08:09
  26. What's the max number of positions you hold at a given time? 1:09:41
  27. Best resources (books/courses) to learn how to short? Best resources (books/courses) to learn how to HEDGE one's position? 1:12:06
  28. How do you use/why do you have 18 and 8 MA on your charts? 1:13:45
  29. What broker do you use to trade Bitcoin? 1:14:57
  30. Why wouldn't Peter mention Schabackers' book for interested futures traders? 1:16:32
  31. To confirm, you look at a breakout in the continuation chart then trade the breakout in the front month? 1:19:00
  32. Best resources on how to HEDGE? 1:23:19
  33. What percentage of your retirement accounts are in the market today? 1:24:35
Read More

Factor Member Webinar September 2021

Factor Member Webinar and Q&A with Peter Brandt - Recorded live September 21, 2021 Opening discussion/presentation by Peter 
  • Modifications to trading 
  • Process before performance 12:52
  • What is swing trading 17:54
  • Market Review 22:24
Live questions from Members  
    1. Could you share a template of your excel that you use for journaling that contains metrics like Profit Factor and GtP, please? 34:25
    2. During a Q&A last March, you said, "In my opinion, the only price of the day that is important is the closing price, buying intraday bursts and selling intraday busts is not a profitable endeavor." Yet, your tweet of Feb. 26 took a different tack: "Most of my entries are on intraday stops, some on daily closing price orders." Under what circumstances will you buy a breakout intraday instead of waiting for the breakout to be confirmed at the close? 35:44
    3. Trading with breakouts, over time, a whole lot of correlated positions start appearing in the book. Is there something you do about it? 37:52
    4. When looking for a price to close above a certain level to enter a trade, what time zone do you consider for the closing price when the instruments trade around the clock globally (e.g. crypto, gold, etc.). Do you observe the New York close? London close? And, if looking at both, which one do you weigh more heavily and why? 39:52
    5. 1) Should equity market volatility/correction affect our tactics/willingness to take trade signals/tighten stops etc. in non-index futures? 2) Corrections back to the 50/100/200 dma etc. will continue to happen; for trend following, should we continue to trail our stops as normal (e.g. 10/50/100 dma or any other method) and let the stops do the job or is there any merit in having some other nuances in the process? 3) Any suggestions for dealing with trend following drawdowns e.g. swing trading half the position as you do; do you think if you had been a trend follower for the whole position (weekly charts/no swing profit taking) your equity would be higher today. 41:25
    6. What do you think about OBV indicator as a confirmation guidance for breakouts? 44:46
    7. How do you factor in the FOMC meeting tomorrow? Do you expect the fed to continue to be accommodative? Would appreciate your opinion if that would be a factor or would you keep going by what the charts present/ technical analysis? 45:32
    8. Referring to Peter's Factor Report of the 19th ... in the opening paragraph - noting Item 3 - "Max Risk per trade has been bumped up from 60 bps to 80 bps ..." together with Item 4 - "Greater use of weekly price bars ..." Your comment/explanation, please ... noting your expectations for Volatility ... and what in your trading experience has prompted you to make this adjustment ... 47:11
    9. How do you manage to open new trades when you already have a few open trades that are not on breakeven yet? 50:56 
    10. I'm curious in the report this weekend why Peter chose the December 2024 contract month for Eurodollar? 51:51
    11. I was stalking USO to get long on a move above 48.55. On 2 Sep price gapped up. Gap up to me is a go with. You don't know if price will continue up or fill the gap. Set my stop at 47.70. The next two days were a pullback filling the gap w/ a low of 47.73. On 8 Sep a good move up. I thought I had survived the pull back. 9 Sep was a sharp reversal day with a low below the pullback low to 47.45 stopping me out. The next day the rally resumed with a strong move to the upside. I did not have the mojo to re-enter. How would you have handled this trade? Would you care to make any suggestions on what I might have done differently besides have a wider stop- 47.27? I thought the stop was good after the pullback. This might have just been unlucky. 53:08
    12. I really like when you host webinars. Will you host webinars more often? Also, your thoughts on China? 54:07   
    13. What is your current agenda for trading? Do you analyze charts at the same time everytime, enter orders, journal? Do you believe this is important for a successful performance? 55:13
    14. For weekly, monthly chart driven trades are stops still determined based on high/low of the breakout day or are high/lows of the breakout week and month are used? 59:29
    15. What do you think is the safest stable coin that will always remain liquid in a market “dislocation"? 1:02:38
    16. In relation to targets, trend following generally, on a conceptual level, does not encompass "targets" - any thoughts on the effects that would have on the end result? i.e., letting your winners run/being trail stopped out. 1:06:04
    17. Do you plan to write a second edition of your book Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader with an updated trading process? 1:08:35
    18. Can you comment on Trade Navigator? 1:09:04
    19. It would be good if you can focus on a given trade on a daily basis. ie/ the chart pattern that got you in and a bar by bar /daily analysis of how you managed that trade. Sometimes I find going through lots of charts to be not as helpful as just focusing on one chart. 1:10:15
    20. Do you get out of all losing trades on Friday? 1:11:02
    21. You mentioned, "Part of edge comes from the willingness to bet bigger on special set-ups (call it intuition of charts)" - how to assess confidence in doing this and still not make a substantial loss? 1:11:43
    22. Your thoughts on REGI, possible inverted H&S? 1:15:43
    23. Please, more evergreen about grain markets!! Tips on grain markets like "There is a strong seasonal tendency for Corn prices to bottom in the Sep-Oct period.” 1:16:14
Read More

Factor Member Q&A November 20, 2020 – video

This content is for members only

Video on Long CHF/JPY as of July 22, 2020

This content is for members only