Factor Member Webinar September 2022 – Drawdowns

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Recorded live September 13, 2022

This webinar is specific to the Drawdown document issued on August 29, 2022, "The Dreaded “D” Word, August 2022"

Live questions from Members  

  1. Factor's underwater curve changed dramatically around 2014. Is this due to measuring DD using closed trade NAV, or due to aggressive risk management? 13:50
  2. What's your most remembered drawdown period? 16:01
  3. How much of the drawdown period is self-inflicted as in we make the period worse ourselves rather than sticking to the trading plan we all should have? 18:01
  4. What is an "acceptable" drawdown for those who have retirement accounts and do not have the ability to do shorter-term trades, hence, needing to hold longer? Whether that be an index fund, BTC, etc. 20:18
  5. I started paper trading eight months ago and have had equity vol but no progression; still at around break even. Very difficult to know if this is a natural DD or just not a working system! 23:22 (A Brief Introduction to Probability Theory and the Random Distribution of Results: Understanding the Concept of Sequencing in a Trading Operation) 
  6. What practical steps do you take to deal with mental torment? 25:57
  7. My data over two years shows that if I take every trade my total performance would be 6 X greater with fewer drawdowns. Common reasons for not pulling the trigger are: Pattern extended from MA's, Support/resistance close, pattern looks loose, not text book pattern, looking for more compression before breakout. However, looking back, they have more going for it than not. Do you have any advice here? 29:07
  8. You mentioned "be able to take many small losses", does limiting risk to 1% but not moving stops aggressively satisfy this? 31:38
  9. The first line in your how to have success in trading is having Defineable and Comprehensive trade. Is this a written document that you continually update? If so, is it fairly detailed and includes all of your trading weapons? I would love to see an outline if this is something that exists. 34:23 (BOOK: Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke) 
  10. How do you decide when to move stops and to where? 38:05 (A protocol for Entering Trades Using ATR Stop Levels) 
  11. What was the pivot to introducing varied bet size? My struggle is when to increase bet size, and if the next is a big winner then I'm missing out. 42:08
  12. Do you think it makes sense to start cutting trade size if you see lots of tradable patterns to limit the risk in having more signals than normal? 44:44
  13. Experience is the best answer to many trading questions ... Knowing your "edge" & knowing how to calculate that - Before! - placing a bet ... discovering this changed my life ... Thank you, Peter, for this discussion! 48:20
  14. You scale out of trades and less frequently add another traunch. Could you elaborate on when and how to take a second bite? 49:06
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Factor Member Webinar August 2022

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Factor Member Webinar - Market Review and Q&A with Peter Brandt - Recorded live August 29, 2022 Market Review with Peter  Live questions from Members  
  1. Can you talk about deciding what patterns to trade? I find myself unable to decide which patterns I should pass up and which I should trade. If I only trade "pretty" patterns, I miss the winners. But if I trade everything, my losers stack up quickly. Any advice on what to look for in this journey of discovering my sweet spot? Is trading every horizontal pattern longer than 2 weeks a fool's errand? 26:33
  2. You have previously said you need a "measured risk" to take a trade. But won't every pattern give you a "measured risk" using LDR? 29:11
  3. Will you add to a position if it gives you a buy signal and you can move your stop up on the existing position to allow for a larger position with no additional risk? If not, why not? 30:04
  4. As a price action trader, do you follow any Wyckoff observations on volume when evaluating a chart pattern? 31:16
  5. For those who have 401k's through their workplace that are equities only (ETF's, S&P 500, etc), do you have any recommendations for investing in equities...i.e. buy and hold, trend following, moving averages, etc? 32:56
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Factor Member Webinar July 2022

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Factor Member Webinar and Q&A with Peter Brandt - Recorded live July 8, 2022 Opening discussion/presentation by Peter  Live questions from Members  
  1. How likely do you think the Bitcoin bottom is in? Do you think we are missing a bottoming pattern? 2:23
  2. Do you change your position size going into major events? How about adding to the position if the news goes in your favor? What events are most important? 7:30 
  3. Can you recommend sources of online commentaries and analysis on the fundamentals of agricultural commodities, esp. grains (supply, demand, plantings, etc.)? 10:43
  4. Have you ever met a successful day trader in your career? By day trader, I mean someone who gets in the market at open and is flat by closing. 14:49
  5. How will you manage EUR-USD with today's doji reversal? 16:58
  6. Could you please discuss the seeming paradox of aggressively mitigating risk on a per position basis, while also staying steady even through drawdowns on an account value basis? 20:31
  7. Does palladium look like it broke out today? 27:23
  8. Can I get a quick comment on the weekly breakouts in USD/PLN and USD/ZAR? 28:43
  9. If you have a loser much bigger than your avg loser, would you close a parallel winning position in parallel, which can compensate the loser? Even if this winning trade runs good. I think in terms of preserving NAV as key metric. 31:11 
  10. Has your portfolio backtested your approach? Thinking more in terms of correlation risk on a portfolio and position sizing optimization rather than entry/exit etc. 32:25
  11. I am wondering if there are any good books or educational materials regarding the ag markets and cyclical tendencies on which contracts to focus on? New crop vs. old crop and knowledge may keep a futures trader out of trouble. 37:09 (Book Link: A Complete Guide to the Futures Market Technical Analysis, Trading Systems, Fundamental Analysis, Options, Spreads, and Trading Principles by Jack Schwager)
  12. I find I get chopped up with stops (both entry and exit) on the back months for futures. My background is trading a CTA where we trade on close of each market and do so manually as I manage to add positive slip by doing so. But we always trade front month. Do you have any advice on how to trade the less liquid months? 39:27
  13. Could you please walk through the diamond setup in European carbon credits? 42:48
  14. Please address the topic of taking signals from smaller continuation patterns from within a 'strong trend' that has already lasted a good length (historically) and could be tired? 45:04
  15. Do you see any signs of bottoming in biotech? Xbi? 48:00
  16. Can you review your methodology of placing stops for an initial BO entry and then how to move them up on a trailing basis? 49:23
  17. What currency brokerages do you recommend? 52:48
  18. What is your take on having diverse trading systems as recommended by Mark Andrew Ritchie in his Trading Bible? 54:46 (Book Link: My Trading Bible by Mark Ritchie)
  19. When setting an exit stop on a long position, do you subtract the same percentage of ATR from a key chart point as you do with your entry stops, or do you use a different percentage of ATR? 56:25 
  20. Latest thoughts on AUDUSD? 56:57
  21. Can you comment on what you're looking for before entering a short on Soybeans, Soybean Meal, and Canadian Dollars? 59:12
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Real Vision interview – Peter Brandt interviews Jurrien Timmer, Chart Your Way Through Choppy Waters

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Real Vision interview – My Life in 4 Trades (Podcast)

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Factor Weekly Chart Scroll, Futures and Forex Markets – January 27, 2022

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Factor Weekly Chart Scroll, Futures and Forex Markets - January 27, 2022 Live questions from Members  
  1. The Ultra T Notes contracts - Tell us why you trade the "Ultra" T Note contracts vs. the alternative T Note Contract - Symbol /TN on my TD Platform. 1:13:29
  2. I am working on taking quicker losses and reducing the number of trades that hit my full stop loss. Do you have any suggestions or methods to exit a trade early when you think it is not going in your favor? 1:14:52
  3. I find the short side is more volatile than the long. Can you please share your thoughts on how you adjust sizing? Also, what do you look for in setups that are different from the long side? 1:16:33
  4. I started preparing my buy list on the weekend, and I keep watching those lists throughout the week. However, I missed out on so many setups that emerged on the day which didn't exist during weekend preparation. How do you deal with that? 1:17:30
  5. I see you enter trades on support - breakout retest, moving average test, etc. Can you please elaborate on how you manage the risk on these? Any different from breakout trades? 1:21:09
  6. I am a new subscriber and relatively new to trading. I just wanted to ask if Peter would cover precious metals and his thinking behind Silver and the chart itself. 1:23:35
  7. Any advice for new members regarding navigating the markets/general advice for novice futures traders? 1:25:43
  8. Do you ever use support and resistance levels without a chart pattern to enter or exit a trade. If you do, when? 1:27:37
  9. Do you have any advice for someone nearing retirement age and contemplating entering the financial markets for the first time? 1:29:46
  10. How likely do you see Bitcoin dropping to 12,900 --target from the double top -- as you posted on the Factor Member twitter? 1:31:22
  11. FAQ - Do you ever see yourself hanging it up? Is trading what you’re going to do the rest of your life? 1:36:30
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Real Vision interview – The January Effect: Trading the EUR/USD

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Factor Member Webinar December 2021

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Factor Member Webinar and Q&A with Peter Brandt - Recorded live December 8, 2021 Opening discussion/presentation by Peter  Live questions from Members  
  1. What's the best place to start when learning how to enter and exit trades? 21:42
  2. Do you apply the same ATR filter on stops when exiting a position as you do when entering a position? And, if not, do you use another type of filter to reduce the odds of getting whipsawed by a price excursion that is still within recent volatility? 24:31
  3. I'm new to Factor LLC, so maybe this question is already asked many times. Do you take other fundamentals into account when trading futures - especially COT data / Open Interest? Or just chart patterns like SHS, Triangle, etc. 27:28
  4. If your equities only account is 500k, what would be your standard position size? 29:24
  5. TLT looks like a OOPs. 30:50
  6. What is the minimum account size needed in order to become a professional trader? 31:51
  7. Did you ever try to create a chart of your drawdowns? 33:37
  8. Could you do another session sometime on your weekend screening process? How many markets are you viewing? What service are you using? More about how you do this. 34:54
  9. I need a clarification (I am not a native English speaker, and I am afraid to make mistakes on such an important point). Your weekly/daily trend model for Bitcoin requires two weekly (or daily) candle closes above the 18 weekly (or daily) MA and also an uptick of the 18 weekly (or daily) MA. Correct? Would you mind explaining what exactly meets your criteria for an "uptick" in the context of this trend model? Also, is there any other component to this trend model that I have not detailed above and maybe I have missed? Have you come across, and could you please recommend, any services/tools that allow you to execute entries and exits as per your trend model in an automated way? How do you execute your entries and exits when you are taking some time off, given that crypto trades 24/7 and given that massive shakeouts (like last Friday) may happen even while you sleep? 35:43
  10. Your WEEKLY Trend Model seems down for Bitcoin but seems up for Ethereum. Have you already allocated (or are you planning to allocate soon) a portion of your Trend Model funds to ETH instead of BTC even if your trend model is down both on the weekly and daily for BTC ? In the past, BTC and ETH seemed highly correlated but not this time. What are your thoughts on what's currently happening and how do you plan on taking action? 40:54
  11. How do you use ADX? 41:08
  12. Is a 2021 Best Dressed list coming this year? Honestly, it's one of the best resources for a growing trader. 44:16
  13. How (if at all) do you allow yourself LATE entries when/if you miss the early portion of a breakout which: a) comes after a lengthy consolidation on the weekly timeframe b) shows a huge momentum c) price still has the potential to go higher based on Technical Analysis targets Is the answer different when you are trading crypto vs other assets? 44:54
  14. Do you find a lot fewer swing trading opportunities in futures in the last couple of years? 47:28
  15. Any recommendations for setting stops in a retirement account? It would be a loose stop, but not sure how loose to be. 49:09
  16. Silver. What gives? Frustrating market. And gold McClelllan is positive on gold. 50:49
  17. Where are you able to trade Bitcoin and ETH short with margin? 52:26
  18. Could you talk about the benefits of creating an LLC for trading a prop account? 53:40
  19. I am a new member. I want to ask about your risk-reward, I can see on the charts/opps you post that you normally put 1:1. Is this the case mostly? 54:40
  20. Can you please talk about the daily and weekly chart of ETH? I would like to know more about ETH? Is ETH the leader for crypto currency's now? Especially after holding $4000 since last BTC decline. 56:48
  21. What do you make of the cocoa chart? 58:41
  22. What should I read, how should I trade while I'm learning? 59:18
  23. I'm a relatively experienced stock, options, and equities trader. I've wanted to get into Futures for a few years now due to all the positives mentioned (great leverage, favorable taxation, etc). I'm confident at charting and trading Futures Continuous charts and have been keeping a paper trading log, but the technicalities of Futures contracts makes my head spin! I'm never sure which month's contract to buy based on my trade idea; sometimes the contracts are denominated in apostrophes (i.e. 32nds rather than decimals), some contracts are so large that even with a sizable account, I couldn't afford even 1 contract, and I am paranoid I will accidentally hold a contract through expiration and be beholden to physical delivery! How would you recommend an independent trader without access to a trading floor mentor get a grasp on the world of Futures trading from a terminology and execution standpoint? 1:01:09
  24. When choosing which month to trade in a futures market, what do you look at aside from OI? 1:06:05
  25. Amazon chart. Another frustrating stock. 1:08:09
  26. What's the max number of positions you hold at a given time? 1:09:41
  27. Best resources (books/courses) to learn how to short? Best resources (books/courses) to learn how to HEDGE one's position? 1:12:06
  28. How do you use/why do you have 18 and 8 MA on your charts? 1:13:45
  29. What broker do you use to trade Bitcoin? 1:14:57
  30. Why wouldn't Peter mention Schabackers' book for interested futures traders? 1:16:32
  31. To confirm, you look at a breakout in the continuation chart then trade the breakout in the front month? 1:19:00
  32. Best resources on how to HEDGE? 1:23:19
  33. What percentage of your retirement accounts are in the market today? 1:24:35
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Real Vision Interview: What Are the Secrets, Lessons & Wizardry of Great Traders? – Peter Brandt interviews Jack Schwager

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