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Topix Nikkei Dow - Peter Brandt - Factor Trading

Topix (and Nikkei Dow)

Continuation patterns continue to develop in the Japanese stock market indexes. The Topix Index traded in Osaka (TSE) displays a 12-week continuation rectangle (Mar 2 was an out-of-line movement). While the measured target in Topix is 1633, a swing target of 1775 is possible. Read More

Factor Update, March 5, 2017

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Gold Yen Ratio

Correlation of Japanese Yen with Gold

Gold Yen Correlation

Conventional wisdom has been abuzz lately about the Gold Yen Correlation. The two charts below are courtesy of my friend James Cutting of Nautilus Capital. Indeed, on the basis of a 63-day Gold Yen Correlation (I have no idea how James determines these time periods) there is presently a .85 correlation between the two markets. The second chart in this series shows that since 2013 there has been a fairly consistent correlation of at least .50 between the markets.   Yen Gold Correlation 2- Factor Trading - Peter Brandt Read More

Factor Update, February 12, 2017

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Yen Chart - Peter Brandt

Yen Chart – Textbook Market

Yen Chart – Textbook Market

 

The Yen Chart is a textbook charting market – it has a long history of providing very reliable pattern signals, as shown on the weekly chart dating back to early 2011.

 

Yen Chart - Textbook Market - Peter Brandt - Factor

The advance on Oct 4 appears to have completed a possible 16-week symmetrical triangle bottom – remember that the symmetrical triangle pattern is far less reliable than horizontal patterns such as the H&S, rectangle and right angle-triangles. In order to be confirmed, a breakout of a symmetrical triangle bottom needs a decisive close above the last intermediate high in the triangle – marked as point #4 at 104.32 on the daily graph. A confirmed breakout on the Yen Chart would have a minimum target of 109.

 Yen Chart - Textbook Market - Peter Brandt - Factor

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Japanese Yen Alert

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Factor Update, May 1st

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Factor Update – April 9th

 

Factor Update - April 9th

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Factor Alert – March 30th

 

Factor Alert – March 30th

There are a few charts of interest developing this week.
New Zealand Dollar. This chart appears to be completing a common bottom on the weekly and daily graphs. A decisive close above the Oct 2015 high would complete this base area and establish a target of .7470, although resistance should be expected at the Feb 2015 low of .7147. This is a possible Factor Move.

NOTE:  This is a sample report that members of Peter Brandt’s Factor Service receive on a weekly basis.  To consider membership, please visit this page for further details:  Factor Membership Option

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USD/SEK. The 14-month rectangle continues to develop on the weekly graph. I have not ruled out a downside breakout. Note that the rally in recent days retested the under belly of a 5-month rectangle on the daily graph (red box). This is the type of chart construction that offers me the opportunity to establish an anticipatory position, although there is always the danger of being whipsawed within a trading range.
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Japanese Yen. My bias in the Yen is well advertised. The bull trap of Mar 17 needs to be resolved. The question is whether the weak longs established with the false breakout of the 6-week rectangle on the daily graph have been adequately washed out. The long-term trend in Yen futures remains up.
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U.S. Treasuries. The weekly continuation chart in T-Bonds appears to be a completed symmetrical triangle whereby the recent decline was simply a retest. The daily graph of June Bonds has completed a bullish wedge as well as a small 4-week H&S bottom. This is a Factor Move pending a firm close this week. The daily chart of the 10-Yr. Notes has completed a well-defined, but small, H&S bottom.
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Sugar. The decline this week may become the retest of the underling base in May Sugar.
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Crude Oil. I am not surprised by the decline today in Crude. It is difficult for me to be constructive on the charts, even though the weekly graph has completed a sizable falling wedge (not shown). I have no present interest in trade WTI.
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Eurocurrency. Long-time Factor members are well aware of the January Effect in the EUR/USD crossrate.  It is possible that the Jan 2016 low will qualify as the annual low. If so, EUR/USD could advance toward major resistance at 1.2000.
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Just a word of warning is in order. The signals in Bonds, USDSEK, NZD and Sugar look quite promising. Yet, I continue to view the current markets as choppy. I remain committed to assuming under-leveraged positions in well-defined chart signals.

NOTE:  This is a sample report that members of Peter Brandt’s Factor Service receive on a weekly basis.  To consider membership, please visit this page for further details:  Factor Membership Option

 

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