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platinum continues to shine - peter brandt - factor trading

Platinum Continues to Shine

Platinum Bull Market

The dominant chart construction in Platinum is the completed 9-month H&S bottom on the weekly and daily graphs with an implied profit target of 1179. Note the near perfect Apr 25 retest of the neckline on the daily chart. The strength on Apr 28 goes a long way to confirm the H&S bottom interpretation.  Is this a Platinum bull market!

 

Platinum bull market  - Factor Trading - Peter Brandt - Platinum Chart $PL_F

 

Platinum bull market - Factor Trading - Peter Brandt - Platinum Chart $PL_F 2

Factor Trading is long Platinum and well positioned with a protective stop in place.  To consider Factor Membership options, please visit our home page for further details.  https://www.peterlbrandt.com

 

plb

 

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Factor Update, May 1st

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Factor Update – April 24th

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Precious Metals Alert

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Even if Gold and Silver are driving to the final low, so what? It still is no reason to be long.

 

It could take many months — or even years — for the precious metals to form a bottom

I am on record as stating my opinion that the current down thrust in Gold, Silver and Platinum is likely to be the final leg down in their respective bear trends. If you inappropriately still own precious metals from higher prices, please do not take comfort from my belief we are headed for a low.

There is a huge difference between the end of a bear market and a bottom. Even if the precious metals find a final low, you could grow old and die before the next bull trend bails you out.

Let’s look at history.

The bottom in Gold following the 1974-1976 bear trend required 14 months to bottom. There was no reason to be a bottom picker during this bear trend.

7.20.Gold_W_1976 bottom

The bottom in Gold following the 1980-1999 bear trend required more than five years to bottom. There was no urgency to pick the bottom of this 19-year bear trend.

7.20.Gold_W_1999 bottom

Bottoms require time, especially in raw material commodities. SELDOM do raw materials create “V”-extended lows. Take a look at the current Gold chart. What possible reason is there to become a Gold bull even if a low might be near? Answer — ABSOLUTELY NO REASON!

7.20.Gold_M

Based on history, there is even less urgency to be an owner of Silver. It required 20 years for Silver to bottom after the 1979/1980 bull market, finally completing its bottom in 2005. I remember this well — I became a major bull in Silver in late 2005 based on classical charting principles.

7.20.SI_Q

When I think about Gold and Silver entering the final stages of their bear trends, my frame of reference is short covering, not trying to pick a bottom as a buyer. Even if the precious metal markets are in their final down thrust, it could be many months or even years before it is time to seriously become a bull again.

$GLD, $GC_F, $SI_F, $SLV, $PL_F

 

 

Charts of the Day for November 13, 2014 — Some excitement ahead

 

Gold, Palladium, Platinum, CATO, Crude Oil

Keep your eyes on the precious metals. Gold and Palladium could be bottoming. A decisive close by Gold above 1180 and then above 1202 would be strong indications that the 3+ year bear market has run its course.

11.13_GC_D

Palladium is forming a 9-week H&S bottom pattern.  The key levels to watch for the next direction are the Nov high at 809 and the Nov low at 746.25. More bearish is the Platinum chart. A new low under 1186 would not be constructive.

11.13_PA_D

11.13_PL_D

The weekly Crude Oil chart explains the current weakness. The 3-1/2 symmetrical triangle on the weekly chart has a target of $50. Look for real estate deals in North Dakota.

11.13_CL_W

Kuddos to Factor member Paul S. for alerting me to CATO. On Tuesday he correctly interpreted the continuation H&S pattern in this stock and is profiting accordingly. Way to go, Paul.

11.13_CATO_D

 

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Have precious metals begun a new bull market?

 

Gold is forming a possible massive H&S bottom

On Sunday, June 15, I issued a Tweet that Gold was forming a possible H&S bottom pattern. See here for chart posted.

Additional evidence exists that the precious metals are forming major chart bottoms that could propel the next bull market phase. To gain a fuller understanding of the importance of price charts in Gold, please read the “Chart History of the Gold Market,” last updated in November 2013.

The H&S bottom in Gold is now clearly defined on the daily and weekly charts (weekly chart shown). The rally today is strong indication that the right shoulder low is in place. A close above 1400 is required to complete this bottom.

6.19_GC_W_v1

In the event of such a close, the swing target in Gold would become 2,400 as shown on the monthly graph. This swing target assumes that the advance from the Dec 2013 low will equal the advance from late 2008 through Sept 2011. Remember, a H&S bottom is not a H&S bottom until it is completed.

6.19_GC_M

Silver also presents an interesting technical study. The decline into the May low had all the earmarks of a bearish descending triangle. Yet, the market was on the ropes but could not be put down. While failed descending triangles are not typical bottom patterns, they do occur.

6.19_SI_W

Also, it is possible to argue that the entire period since the Apr 2011 high has formed a channel on the semi-long monthly graph. On an arithmetic scale, the period since the Apr 2011 high has formed a bullish wedge.

6.19_SI_M_semi

6.19_SI_M

The long-term chart of Platinum exhibits a possible 6-year triangulation as part of a bull trend that began in the last 1990’s. If this labeling is correct, Platinum’s target could extend toward 2,750. Obviously, this will not happen overnight.

6.19_PL_Q

Traders should be alert for buying opportunities consistent with their approach to trading.

 

Markets: $SLV, $GLD, $GC_F, $PL_F, $SI_F

 

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A chart update on the metals, other markets

 

Markets are fast approaching chart targets

 

The weekly Gold chart is well on its way to the target of 1266 establsihed by the April completion of a 19-month rectangle. The daily chart has now completed a continuation 9-week triangle. This triangle has a further target of 1221.

6.20_Gold_weekly

6.20_GC57_daily

The weekly Silver chart has a target of 1615 established by the April completion of an 18-month rectangle. The daily chart is forming a possible wedge pattern. My guess is that this wedge pattern will serve as a launch to the final low in this bear market.

6.20_SI_weekly

6.20_SIN3_daily

The montly Platinum chart displays an 18-month rectangle. Should this rectangle be decisively resolved by a downside breakout the target would become 1024.

6.20_PL_monthly

 

The dominant pattern in Copper is the completion on the weekly chart of an 18-month symmetrical triangle in March. This pattern has a target of 273. My guess (or perhaps my hope) is that the daily chart will hold at the April low and a rally back toward 320 to 325 will occur. This would set up the possibility of a continuation H&S pattern. However, we would need a right shoulder rally for this to occur.

6.20_HG_weekly

6.20_HG57_daily

The target of the weekly and daily H&S top in the Dec. 2017 Eurodollars has been met. Meeting a downside target is not a reason to become a bull. A major trend change has taken place in the interest rate markets. Further downside targets exist at 96.51 and 94.40. The 94.40 target (representing an interest rate of 5.6%) is probably a year or so away.

6.20_GEZ7_weekly

The bearish implications of the completion of the 2-year symmetrical triangle on the weekly Australian Dollar chart cominue to play out. The target in this market is .8342. Do not rule out a period of congestion and short-covering strength along the way.

6.20_AD_weekly

I am quite certain that the brief completion in recent days of the 10-month “triangle within the triangle” on the weekly Crude Oil chart will prove to be a giant bull trap (yes, for the record, I got nipped for 65 points). Yet, the bear trap is not yet official. A full bar close below the upper boundary of the triangle is required to spring the trap.

6.20_CL_weekly

Allow me to whet your appitite with a weekly chart of the Canadian Dollar futures. The market is forming a massive 3-year H&S top pattern. The key price is 9568. A decisive close below this level would complete the pattern and establish a target of .8470.

6.20_CAD_weekly

 

One final chart – $AAPL. A decisive close below 415 or so would complete a 4-month H&S failure pattern with a target of 358.

6.20_AAPL

 

Markets: $GC_F, $SI_F, $GLD, $SLV, $PL_F, $GE_F, $CL_F, $USDCAD, $AUDUSD, $HG_F

 

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A chart so potentially bearish it is breathtaking

 

If Platinum closes weak today, there could be a low risk play to 1,000

5.17_PL_057 5.17_PL_weekly

$PL_F

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The latest charts for Gold, Silver and Platinum — Look Out Below!!!

 

Another leg in the bear market is in progress

The charts speak for themselves

The target in Gold based on the weekly graph is in the mid 1200s. The correction rally ended on May 13 with the completion of a small H&S top pattern on the daily chart.

5.15_GC_daily

5.15_GC_close up

The Silver has a swing target of the mid $19s. By the way, the attainment of the targets in Gold and Silver will produce a Gold/Silver ratio of 64 to 1. The market is apparently not listening to some Spanish king from the 1500s who declared the ratio MUST be 20 to 1. So much for Spanish law! By the way, I have a challenge to all you Silver bulls who somehow make a distinction between “paper silver” (futures) and physical silver (including certain ETFs). Walk your shares of your ETF into the ETF underwriter and ask to exchange your shares for physical Silver. You will be told that all your ETF represents is “paper silver.”

5.15_SI57_daily

Platinum is slow coming to this party. The recent correction has retested important resistance on the weekly chart. The daily chart displays a possible symmetrical triangle. A completion of this triangle should lead to a test of the recent low.

5.15_PL_weekly

5.15_PLN

$GC_F, $SI_F, $GLD, $SLV, $PL_F