Tag Archive for: #SILVER

Thoughts on a Weekend Afternoon, March 12/13, 2022

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Eurocurrency futures, Japanese Yen, Bitcoin, FCX, SCCO, 10-Yr T Notes, Silver, SIVR, BRK.B, Gold, Nov Soybeans, Canadian Dollar futures, Brazilian Real futures, Dec Corn, S&Ps

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Thoughts on a Weekend Afternoon, March 5/6, 2022

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Markets of interest

The composite risk of an entire portfolio or grouping of trades can be measured in two ways:

  • Initial risk at the time of entering trades
  • Current risk using revised protective stop levelsEven though I might have moved stops to BE (or even a locked-in profit) on trades, I still consider composite initial risk because it better reflects how much asset volatility I would be experienced if a trend reversal occurs in my portfolio.As a general rule I limit my composite initial risk on a portfolio of highly correlated positions to 200 BPs max. At the present time my composite initial BP risk on metals and mineral positions is greater than 300 BPs. This means that a broad reversal in these positions would not be fun. I cannot remember the last time I had as many highly correlated positions.
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Thoughts on a Weekend Afternoon, February 26/27, 2022

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There is nothing that exposes weaknesses in one’s trading plan like the week that just ended. That was a week that was – and I am glad it’s over. There were more limit ups and limit downs than I remember in many years. It reminded me of the grain and metal markets of the 1970s.

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Bullish signs in precious metals, January 19, 2022

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The charts are indicating that a bullish trend in precious metals is emerging.

Note: This report is intended to provide an overview of precious metals, not a tactical “call-to-action.” Members of the Factor Report Service are advised to remain disciplined with your respective trading models and to always weigh risk management above market opinion.

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Thoughts on a Weekend Afternoon, January 1-2, 2022

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Happy, Healthy, and Blessed 2022 Trading Commentary

During 2021 I made a modification to my trading by attempting to lengthen the hold-time and hopefully the net outcome of half of my positions through the greater use of the weekly chart time frame. I can report three things…

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Some weekly charts I am watching December 28 2021

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Some weekly/monthly charts I am watching

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Thoughts on a Weekend Afternoon, November 21, 2021 (issued November 19)

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Commentary on open trade equity (unrealized profits)

Unrealized profits are taken into account when calculating futures and forex trading profits for tax liability. Also, hedge fund managers calculate their performance based on closed trades in addition to changes in open equity (OTE) from one reporting period to the next.

Many traders monitor their asset balances, including unrealized profits/losses. While I report unrealized gains/losses in my annual tax statements, I ignore open trade equity in monitoring my Net Asset Value in real time. Open profits do not belong to me so why would I treat them as belong to me. The only Net Asset Value that I care about is Closed Trade Net Asset Value.

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Thoughts on a Weekend Afternoon, November 7, 2021

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Trading commentary – moving into “coasting” gear: 2021 has been a crazy year. It has also been a very profitable year led by treasuries, grains (Corn, Mpls Wheat), Bitcoin and Nat Gas…

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Thoughts on a Weekend Afternoon, October 24, 2021 (corrected copy)

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Trading Commentary: A year ago, all of my trades were managed with active and aggressive trade management practices. In the past year (especially recent months) I have transitioned to more loosely managing half of each trade with a focus on weekly chart patterns.

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Thoughts on a Weekend Afternoon, October 17, 2021

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Factor members, your policy on taking losses – BIG or small – is the most important decision you must make regarding your trading operations.

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