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Silver - Peter Brandt - Factor

Silver Potential

Silver

An asset showing potential.  Silver is a market with a tendency to form H&S patterns with stunted or abbreviated right shoulders. This is currently the case on the daily chart. I would greatly prefer to see a decline below 16.40 followed by an advance and close above 17.50. Such a scenario would entice me to be long Silver. Read More

Factor Update, January 29, 2017

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CFTC COT Data - Factor Trading - Peter Brandt

CFTC COT Data – A discussion

CFTC COT Data – A discussion

As a trader, I have gone months and even years paying little attention to the composition of open interest as reported each week by the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders data (COT).  I have covered the topic of CFTC COT Data recently, only because a number of markets have experienced all-time record levels of spec long and commercial short positions. In a recent Factor update, I even raised the question of whether the old book on how to interpret COT data might be thrown away – that we might have entered a new and different era. Evidence now indicates that the old book and understanding of CFTC COT data still applies – that record levels of spec longs and commercial shorts is a reason for concern. The charts below show some recent and current markets exhibiting CFTC COT extremes. In the cases of Soybean Oil, Sugar, Gold, Silver, Cotton, Copper and Crude Oil, record COT spec long positions led to significant market sell offs. It should be noted that Soybean Oil, Sugar, Cotton, Coffee and Copper are still at COT extremes, indicating that additional selling pressure is likely. Please do not misunderstand me to be saying that record spec long positions MUST always lead to price declines. This is NOT the case. There have been times in the past when commercials have been forced to capitulate. For example, the monthly Copper chart (bottom chart featured) shows that a COT profile similar to the current profile resulted in an historic advance starting in Sep 2003.   CFTC COT Data - Factor Trading - Peter Brandt - Gold Read More

Factor Update – October 30, 2016

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Factor Update, October 23, 2016

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Factor Update – October 9, 2016 includes a Special Feature on Gold Production

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Forex markets and precious metals

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Factor Update – August 28, 2016

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Factor Update – August 21, 2016

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Possible Silver Targets

Next Possible Silver Targets

Next Possible Silver Targets

The advance in Silver is consolidating in the form of a rectangle. This consolidation could propel the market to its next Silver Target at 22.47, or lead to a retest of support at 18.00.

 

Possible next Silver Target - Peter Brandt - Factor Trading

 

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