Factor Update – September 18, 2016
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Peter Brandt entered the commodity trading business in 1976 and is considered by many leading authorities to be one of the best classical chartists and traders.
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There is some analog history for a bull trend in Soybean Oil to follow a bull market in Soybean Meal by six to 12 months. I would define the Apr-Jun 2016 advance in Meal to be a bull market. The H&S forming on the weekly Soybean Oil graph is my current favorite developing pattern.
Factor is long Soybean Oil with a decided interest to extend leverage. This market has the potential to be a 1000 basis point trade.
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The dominant chart construction in Cable is the completed 30- year rectangle on the quarterly graph with a target of 1.0345 — and .7790 as an outside possibility. As pointed out in the discussion of Commitment of Traders data herein, specs have an all-time record short position and commercials an all-time record long position in Pound futures. This is not typically a profile consistent with a further downward trend. I would not be surprised if GBP retests major resistance in the 1.39 to 1.41 zone. Factor is flat. If the Cable does rally toward 1.40 I will be watching closely for a selling opportunity in the way of a small topping pattern on the daily chart. There is also a chance – supported by Friday’s reversal day – that the daily chart is forming a symmetrical triangle congestion.
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