Entries by Peter Brandt

Factor Alert – Ignorance is not bliss

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Ignorance is not bliss -- especially when trading speculative markets

 

Many questions from members to the Factor Service have been received in recent days. I appreciate your questions and feedback and only wish I could answer each and every question posed. Please know that Factor staff reviews every single email received.
Sometimes I am right on markets and trading ideas, sometimes I am wrong -- welcome to trading. But I promise you I will always express my opinions as directly and truthfully as I know how.

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Factor Alert – NZD/JPY

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This is a forex cross I have been watching for the past four months.
The cross has remained in a broad trading range of 45.00 (means 45 Yen per NZD) to 96.00, as shown on the monthly graph.

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Losing to Win

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I sometimes sense from email correspondence I receive from the Factor community that there is an obsession in being “Right” when trading, or put another way, concern that their analysis might be “wrong.”

Running the risk of offending, this worry about being right or wrong on a trade or an analysis puts up a major red flag in my mind.

Factor Alert – March 30th

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Factor Alert - March 30th

 

Note:  Report publish to current members (Feb 29th).
There are a few charts of interest developing this week.
New Zealand Dollar. This chart appears to be completing a common bottom on the weekly and daily graphs. A decisive close above the Oct 2015 high would complete this base area and establish a target of .7470, although resistance should be expected at the Feb 2015 low of .7147. This is a possible Factor Move.

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Factor Alert – March 30th

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There are a few charts of interest developing this week.

New Zealand Dollar. This chart appears to be completing a common bottom on the weekly and daily graphs. A decisive close above the Oct 2015 high would complete this base area and establish a target of .7470, although resistance should be expected at the Feb 2015 low of .7147. This is a possible Factor Move.

Trading Commentary — A day late, a dollar short

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The comments herein are not applicable to all traders. But to those for whom they are applicable, you will know it.

Four part question:

1 Have you ever had a strong feeling that a market was about to do a certain thing? As an example, let’s say you had a strong feeling the S&Ps were about to rally 30 big points.

2 Next, have you ever then jumped into the market AFTER it started doing what you expected it to do? As an example, let’s say you bought the S&Ps after it rallied 20 points.

3 Next, have you ever then been spooked out of the trade you chased on the first adverse reaction against your position. Going back to our example, you chased a 20 point rally in the S&Ps, then got shaken out on a 10 point reaction.

4 Next, have you ever then watched the market

Factor Report – March 27th

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General trading commentary

Novice traders often begin their speculative endeavors with many false assumptions. Of course, the marketplace charges a heavy tuition fee (in the way of trading losses) to correct false assumptions. Once such false assumption is that profits can be made in any and all market environments – a trader just needs to constantly adapt to changing trading environments to figure out how to cash in on the price moves. As an example, a novice day trader or scalp trader may believe that each new day in the S&Ps is a blank slate – he or she just needs to find the formula that will work for that day. Such thinking is faulty and will result in long-term trading frustrations and capital losses.

A trader cannot be successful over an extended period of time without having an organized and systematic process of trade identification, overall risk management, trade sizing, trade management and emotional/psychological stability. The reality is that any given approach to trading will have good times and bad times, good weeks and