Peter Brandt’s Public Blog – Page 11 – Peter Brandt

Interesting Equity Markets

July 1, 2019/by Peter Brandt

We have an Interest Equity Markets development. The DJIA has been unable to make a new high for the past 18 months. This is also true for the S&P 500. My thinking is that a decisive new high by these two indexes confirmed by a new high in the S&P A/D is required to put the cyclic bull trend back on track.

Forex Plays

June 24, 2019/by Peter Brandt

This discussion will bring Factor members back to Jun 2017. The advance in Mar 2016 violated a multi-year parabola. Following the initial rally from the violated parabola, the market corrected in the form of a 13-month channel. The completion of this channel in Jun 2016 produced a 785 BP trading profit for the Factor Tracking Account. Another channel is forming in the C$. This is a diagonal pattern, so I am cautious. Keep in mind

Global Equity Markets

June 4, 2019/by Peter Brandt

The S&P cumulative A/D line is rolling over – the type of rollover experienced in the 4th quarter of 2018 is still not visible. Most Global Equity Markets are in strong down-trends or completed significant top patterns this past week.

Who is More Precious

April 10, 2019/by Peter Brandt

The possibility of a massive inverted H&S pattern on the monthly graph is noted once again. The daily chart displays a small H&S top pattern. A completion of this H&S top would do some damage to the near-term bullish case.

Understanding Trading Outcomes

March 18, 2019/by Peter Brandt

Reviewing trades offers the opportunity to unpack the impact of random probability upon a sequence of trading events. An extremely simplified view of probability theory
relative to trading goes something like this:

A prolonged sequence of futures (or FX, equities, cryptos – pick your poison) trades with a fixed $1000 profit target and a fixed risk of $1000 (normalized for underlying trends) should produce profits in 50% of the trades. A net loss would occur over time due to trading fees.
A prolonged sequence of futures trades with a fixed $2000 profit