The possibility of a massive inverted H&S pattern on the monthly graph is noted once again. The daily chart displays a small H&S top pattern. A completion of this H&S top would do some damage to the near-term bullish case.
https://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/precious-metals.jpg8221233Peter Brandthttps://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Factor-Research-Trading-Services-300x79-300x79.pngPeter Brandt2019-04-10 09:33:472019-04-10 09:33:47Who is More Precious
Reviewing trades offers the opportunity to unpack the impact of random probability upon a sequence of trading events. An extremely simplified view of probability theory
relative to trading goes something like this:
A prolonged sequence of futures (or FX, equities, cryptos – pick your poison) trades with a fixed $1000 profit target and a fixed risk of $1000 (normalized for underlying trends) should produce profits in 50% of the trades. A net loss would occur over time due to trading fees.
A prolonged sequence of futures trades with a fixed $2000 profit
The daily chart of Apr Gas Oil (diesel) completed a H&S bottom on Wednesday. Factor is long. I entered this market because its horizontal neckline and right shoulder were clearer than the necklines and right shoulders on the Brent and WTI charts.
https://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Soft-Commodities-wheat-factor-trading-Peter-Brandt.jpg8881333Peter Brandthttps://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Factor-Research-Trading-Services-300x79-300x79.pngPeter Brandt2019-02-04 09:07:222019-02-04 09:07:22Soft Commodities are Shaping Up