The monthly chart displays a massive inverted H&S pattern with a target of $242 on the continuation chart. Of course, timing will be of critical consideration givent the likely volatility of such a breakout.
The daily continuation chart presents a 7-month inverted continuation H&S. Price is currently poised for a breakout.
Take this trade according to your own rules. A U.S. ETF/investment partnership is $BNO.
But the alt-coin rally could be the mother of all alt-coin seasons.
I am a futures trader – have been for fifty years. I am far more at home in Soybeans and London Sugar and Crude Oil and Gold. A person trades where his/her niche has been sculpted. I have no desire to sculpt an edge is sone $8hit coin. If this offends you, then I am not sorry.
I believe in slow and steady growth of NAV with drawdowns not to exceed 5% or so, from peak to valley. You bitercoiners have the alts all to yourself.
Charts cannot predict. Charts are not dependable. Charts do not go by certainty or even probability. The best a chart can do is a possibility. I am a possibility trader — when I can closely define risk. For me, risk control is everything.
The chart of total crypto market cap minus BTC is one of the more fascinating charts I can find among all the charts I look at during a week.
This chart is bozo crazy. But, this chart only shows a POSSIBILITY. I’ve made my living for 50 years on possibilities — that is the best markets offer.
Since Nov 2021 this chart has been forming a classic Cup with Handle – looking chart structure. Keep in mind chart rookies, there are very strict criteria for a true C&H – so this is just a Cup and Handle – looking pattern. Nevertheless, I’ve seen many non-legit C&Hs perform like the real deal.
The highs of the Cup were Dec 2024 and Sep 2025. This chart has major resistance at 1.17 Trillion of cap. The chart closed on Friday at 1.12 T. It is possible to establish a POSSIBLE target on the Total Cap minus BTC of 6.75 Trillion — that is a multiple of 6X from current levels.
Of course if this chart comes true there will be many alt adding 10X, even 20X or more from their current prices. I am not into alts, so that field is yours to play with.
The daily chart of Total Cap minus BTC is also very interesting. The advance on Friday completed a classic pennant that will likely serve at least as a half mast pattern for the underling H&S bottom. That would place the next short-term target at 1.36 T. As always, the risk manager in the conference meeting in my head has the loudest voice. A decline back below the Aug low would take me back to the drawing board.
End.
https://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/The20Factor20Report-2-scaled.png00Peter Brandthttps://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/The20Factor20Report-2-scaled.pngPeter Brandt2026-09-19 17:44:272026-09-19 17:49:46My focus is Bitcoin
Grain markets could be poised for a 1970s-type explosion
Let’s review the evidence – then you be the judge.
Corn
Corn prices have remained in a broad trading range since 2008. This range on the quarterly chart has taken the form of a rectangle. My eventual target is 13.20, but is the market ready for that move yet? One argument that can be made against an advance in Corn at the present time is the extensive short position of Commercials. Often tops in grain markets occur when Large Specs become big long holders and Commercials become the big short in the markets. Yet, note the vertical blue lines in 2010 and 2020 when massive rallies began with historically large net short positions on Corn by Commercials.
The weekly chart exhibits a rare compound fulcrum pattern. An advance above 4.76 would complete this pattern and establish an inital target of 6.23.
Soybeans
The quarterly chart of Beans has been forming a massive rectangle, similar to the rectangle that launched an $8 per bushel rally in 2007.
The daily chart of the Jul contract of Beans displays a possible “sling-shot” inverted H&S pattern. This is the type of pattern that can launch a breakout of larger scale patterns. Traders could use a breakout of this daily chart pattern to play the possibility of an advance on the longer-term time frame charts.
Rapeseed (Canola)
The monthly chart of Rapeseed displays a possible multi year inverted H&S pattern. This pattern, if completed, would produce a target of 9.56 or so.
The daily chart of the November contract is forming a possible continuation symmetrical triangle. Forming after a sustained rally from Jan – early Mar, this triangle could be of the “half-mast” variety would suggest an advance to 840.
As always, trade within the size of your account and always use protective stops.
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Statistics on the profitability of retail traders in stocks, commodity futures, and forex markets are both revealing and cautionary. They generally show that the majority of retail traders do not achieve consistent profitability, and only a small percentage become profitable enough to sustain themselves, let alone make a career out of it. Here are some key statistics from various studies and reports:
1. Stock Trading
Profitability: A study by the University of California, Davis, found that around 80% of day traders lose money over the course of a year, and only 1% are consistently profitable over time.
Career Viability: For those aiming to make a career out of it, the odds are even steeper. A smaller percentage, possibly less than 1%, are profitable enough to support themselves solely through trading.
2. Forex Trading
Profitability: Various broker studies, such as those by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), indicate that 70-80% of retail forex traders lose money. Some estimates suggest that only about 10-15% are able to break even or be slightly profitable.
Career Viability: The percentage of traders who are profitable enough to sustain themselves is estimated to be well below 1%. Many profitable forex traders supplement their income with other activities.
3. Commodity Futures Trading
Profitability: Commodity futures trading is similarly challenging. Studies and reports have shown that about 90% of futures traders lose money. A small group, typically less than 10%, may become profitable over time.
Career Viability: Similar to other markets, the percentage of futures traders who can consistently support themselves and make a career out of trading is likely under 1%.
4. General Retail Trading (All Markets)
Profitability: According to a report by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), about 70-80% of retail traders lose money overall.
Career Viability: The number of retail traders who achieve sufficient profitability to make a living is estimated to be less than 1%.
Summary
Most traders (70-90%) lose money.
A small percentage (10-30%) might break even or make modest profits.
Only about 1% or less of traders are profitable enough to sustain themselves through trading alone.
The U.K requires retail foreign exchange brokers to report on the success rate of their clients. Please provide the most recent findings from these reports, perhaps broken down by the individual brokers.
In the UK, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) mandates that retail forex brokers disclose the percentage of their clients who are profitable versus those who lose money. The most recent data from 2024 indicates that a significant majority of retail forex traders do not achieve profitability.
Here’s a breakdown of some of the key figures reported by major FCA-regulated brokers:
IG Group: About 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs (Contracts for Difference) with this provider.
City Index: Approximately 69% of retail clients lose money trading CFDs with this broker.
eToro: Around 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs on the platform.
Plus500: A high percentage, 79.90% of retail investors lose money when trading CFDs with Plus500.
FXTM: The data shows that between 74-89% of retail clients lose money trading with this broker.
These numbers demonstrate that while a small percentage of traders may be profitable, the vast majority incur losses. This trend is consistent across different brokers, highlighting the inherent risks in retail forex trading
These statistics highlight the significant challenges of trading, especially for those who wish to make it a full-time career. Successful trading requires not only a solid strategy and discipline but also a deep understanding of the markets and the ability to manage risk effectively.
The data herein completely reflect my observations over the past 50 years as a career futures market speculator. I do not attribute my success as a futures market speculator to such things as:
Natural abilities
Knowledge
Intelligence
Knowing the right people
Rather, I attribute the longevity of my career to the following things:
I entered futures trading at the right time — at the very start of the commodity market price booms.
As a trader, I was willing to learn from my mistakes and put my ego aside
Several CBOT members took a liking in me and provided me with wisdom I might not ever have attained
I am SUPER risk adverse. There are old traders and there are bold traders — I do not know any OLD BOLD traders
My goal from the onset was to earn a living by trading — not to become super wealthy. So, I evolved in a manner that avoided the type of BIG bet that often ends trading careers
Throughout life I have been a problem solver
So, this post is the narrative of how so many aspiring traders fail. But, what are the features of those who succeed? While there is no guarantee of success, the following traits/characteristics are just some of the essentials:
Understanding it takes four or so years just to get the scent of how to properly trade
Learning to be a good loser before becoming a moderate successful trader
Discovering (usually after many mistakes and false starts) an approach or method that cuts losses quickly and allows small winners to become large winners
Patience and discipline
Ability to overcome emotional self-sabotage
Realistic assumptions about what success is in trading (and it is not generating 10X every year)
Ability for self-forgiveness
Finding the fine edge between boldness and risk aversion
Active market speculation is NOT for the vast overwhelming proportion of people. My advice to most people is to place their assets into a combination of real estate with cash flow, SPY-etf and QQQ-etf. Depending upon one’s age and risk tolerance, an allocation to Bitcoin is also advised.
One final comment: I am a believer in Inverted Thinking. Elon Musk is a huge inverted thinker. What does this mean? For me it means to focus more on avoiding the worst things that could happen than on the best things that could happen — to first address those behaviors and actions that get me into trouble.
It is not my intent for this post to discourage you from trading. Rather, I believe that understanding the realities of market speculation is a prerequisite for eventual success.
To know more about me as a futures market speculator, watch this You Tube video of the interview between Raoul Pal, founder of Real Vision, and myself.
By the way, here is how Grok replied to the same question:
Profitable Traders: A small percentage of traders, possibly around 20% or less based on one platform’s data, are profitable. However, this doesn’t specify if this profit is enough to live off.
Unprofitable Traders: The majority, likely significantly more than 50%, either break even or lose money over time.
Career Traders: The percentage of traders who can make trading their career by being consistently profitable enough to support themselves is likely very small, possibly less than 5%, considering the skills, discipline, and psychological fortitude required.
Remember, these figures are inferred from general trading statistics and sentiments shared on platforms like X, not from direct, comprehensive studies on all forms of trading. The actual numbers might vary based on different methodologies, platforms, and definitions of “profitable.”
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https://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Chat-GPT-on-success-of-traders.jpg756738Peter Brandthttps://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/The20Factor20Report-2-scaled.pngPeter Brandt2024-08-17 06:47:132024-08-19 15:44:49So you want to be a full time trader? Good luck with that one!
The industry has a legitimate role to play — it is just not playing this role with integrity
I have very directly confronted the “we-fund-you” prop trading industry. For more background, see this blog post. https://www.peterlbrandt.com/the-we-fund-you-prop-trading-industry-should-be-immediately-shut-down/
The problem is not the concept of customers paying a small monthly fee to paper trade with the hope of being in a super minority qualifying for a big payout by beating the game according to the of trading the price change of futures contracts as set by the prop firms.
For many under-capitalized wannabe traders this should be an alternative.
Rather, my problem is the slime attached to the industry, such as:
Trading rules optimized for clients to lose money
Constantly changing rules for payouts
Lack of registration — IMO these are gaming companies and need to register with state gaming commissions in addition to registration with the CFTC. Why the CFTC? Because customers lose or make money by placing bets on the price changes of regulated futures contracts.
Lack of transparency
Lack of honesty in advertising and promotional messages. For example, most of the U.S. based firms hype the possibility of successful paper trading clients becoming eligible to trade real money in real markets. But this is basically a fraudulent idea (with perhaps one exception).
The Prop firm affiliate programs and accompanied You Tube hype of social influencers/clients claiming huge trading profits when in fact, there is no actual trading taking place
Let the industry clean up its act and be subject to registration and regulation.
End
https://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/The20Factor20Report-2-scaled.png00Peter Brandthttps://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/The20Factor20Report-2-scaled.pngPeter Brandt2024-08-13 21:02:452024-08-13 21:02:45A follow-up regarding my attack on the “we-fund-you” prop industry
Sorry novice traders, but there is no magic sauce or quick fix on the way to a career as a full-time trader
Novice and wannabe traders believe that successful market speculation is all about knowing where markets are headed or about having a secret formula or about skill or about finding that one “killer” trade or about finding a guru to follow.
After 50 years as a career trader I refute these ideas.
Successful market speculation is about surviving challenging periods with trading capital still intact until a trader stumbles into luck with a few trades. This can take years.
This, then, is the starting point of a career.
Then success is maintained and advanced by figuring out and exploiting small advantages that compound over time.
So, this is the formula that produces most of the career traders I know:
Learning to lose on trades while still preserving capital…
Plus…
Getting lucky with a few trades almost by accident…
Then…
Figuring out a small edge that can be compounded over time.
There is no quick fix. No instant success. No 10X after 10X years. The tombstones in the “failed traders” graveyard are filled with those thought they could outsmart the markets. This is not to say there are not a selected few (perhaps 1%) who make it this way — but this too is the result of luck.
Over the years on social media I have been exposed to hundreds of “one-year wonders” who claim to have all the answers. One-by-one they disappear. Gone to never again been heard from. Although some return again and again with a new gimmick for those suckers also looking for easy answers.
Believe me or not at your own risk.
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https://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Trading-as-an-endeavor-of-survival.jpg7431303Peter Brandthttps://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/The20Factor20Report-2-scaled.pngPeter Brandt2024-08-06 11:29:522024-08-06 11:37:32Looking for success in all the wrong places. This is the description of 95% of those wanting to be full-time traders.
Factor-Special-Report-Grains-August-15-2026.pdf
