Special Situation in Soybean Oil, August 17, 2021

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Some similarities are developing between Soybean Oil in 2021 and Bean Oil in 2008.
  • Both bull markets took Bean Oil prices into the 70s (cents per pound) — the only occasions in history this price level was reached
  • Blow-off tops occurred in both years
  • Prices dropped substantially immediately following each blow-off top (-33% in 2008, -25% in 2021)
  • In 2008, a sluggish 3-month stair-step rally into a secondary top then occurred
  • An 8-week sluggish stair-step rally is now taking place
I am very aware that 2008 could prove as the analog year for the current market. In 2008, prices declined 59% from the bull market top, finally bottoming five months after the secondary top.
The current daily chart displays a possible H&S top pattern. I am committed to taking meaningful chart sell signals. The 14-day ADX reading is presently sub-11. Substantial trends often are launched when daily ADX readings drop toward and below 10.
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