Tag Archive for: crypto

FREE: CHARTWIZARDS REPORT #64 (SAMPLE)

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Greetings, fellow Chart Wizards, future pros, wanna-be’s, and the chart curious,

I’m thankful to call Peter Brandt my friend, but seeing as he’s one of the greatest market tacticians of all time, I’m still humbled and honored when he gives me a compliment like this one:

Markets are changing fast, and I wanted to share some FREE alpha with Peter’s readers and Factor members:

What You’ll Find in My Reports

My reports aim to distill the most important market-moving news and highlight both new and existing trade setups in a simple, quick, and easy-to-digest format. Most importantly, everything is framed through the lens of risk management, with a focus on practical, tactical trading.

In short, this is my monthly trading journal. It’s never financial advice (I’m wrong a lot). Do your own research (DYOR) before investing capital.

Enjoy this FREE SAMPLE of Chart WizardsNFT Report #64.

Note: some full pages and select charts have been removed due to their proprietary nature.

 

ChartWizardsNFT Report #64 – May 5, 2025

What I’m Watching:

Here is a compelling conversation from Dr. Eric Schmidt, former Google CEO, on the intersection of artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and national security.

According to Schmidt AI is “underhyped“. He says it is no longer just advancing computer science and automation, but also reshaping fields like biophysics and materials science. This remark jumped out at me: “The computers are now doing self-improvement… They don’t have to listen to us anymore.”

🔹 Geopolitics, Interest Rates & AI Money 🔹

As markets digest the first U.S. GDP contraction since 2022, a shifting global order is becoming undeniable. A joint U.S.-Ukraine minerals fund, record-breaking container cancellations from China, and rising tariff-driven inflation suggest structural decoupling is no longer just a tail risk – it’s base case.

Fed Chair Powell acknowledged stagflationary pressures and trimmed balance sheet runoff, while Bitcoin dominance and gold prices surged as investors brace for a liquidity pivot.

Meanwhile, OpenAI secured $40B, led by SoftBank, with Trump administration support—marking the largest private tech raise in history. What happens next depends on the Fed, tariffs, and investor resilience.

FactSet: In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 10.0% above estimates, which is above the 5-year average of 8.8% and above the 10-year average of 6.9%.

Torsten Slok at Apollo poured cold water on hopes of getting trade deals done in a timely manner.

🔹 FX 🔹

The U.S. dollar’s global share of global FX reserves has dropped from 72% in 2000 to 58% today. The USD is still dominant, contributing to about 50% of global transactions; however, investors are diversifying away from USD exposure amid rising tariffs and political volatility. In contrast, EURUSD broke out of its multi-month base as Eurozone GDP surprised to the upside while U.S. growth turned negative. The dollar’s relative strength narrative is cracking under the weight of structural trade shifts, fiscal imbalances, and softer Fed guidance. Expect continued capital flows into alternatives as BRICS currencies and gold gain reserve share.

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see original eur/usd trade post here

🔹 Crypto Update🔹

Bitcoin Now Positive YTD, Reclaims Key Level as Institutional Demand Surges
Bitcoin jumped to $94.7k following optimism around tariff de-escalation between the U.S. and China, reclaiming the Short-Term Holder (STH) Average Cost Basis of $92.9k – a critical on-chain pivot historically separating bearish corrections from bullish recoveries.

Institutions Choose Bitcoin Over Ethereum
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a record $1.54B in net inflows on April 22, dwarfing Ethereum ETF flows, which remain below 1% of spot volume. This reflects a widening institutional preference for BTC, reinforced by macro uncertainty and clear digital gold narratives. For Bitcoin, reclaiming and holding the STH-Cost Basis is pivotal. If this level holds, it could mark the transition to a sustained bullish regime. If not, recent gains risk being another dead cat bounce in a still-fragile macro backdrop.

  • $IBIT is a good proxy for charting BTC too (I remain long).

full report below

-JK

SAMPLE_May 5 2025 CWNFT 64_JK

ChartWizards Report #64 was released earlier this week for subscribers. If you’re interested in receiving at least one report straight to your inbox for less than $20/month, sign up here: https://www.peterlbrandt.com/chart-wizards/  

Real Vision Crypto Gathering March 2021 SESSION 3 – IT STARTS WITH CHARTS Laura Shin, Willy Woo, and Peter Brandt

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Cointelegraph June 27, 2019

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Picking Tops and Bottoms

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ETH/USD

I want to use Ethereum to make a couple of points. If I were to add up the composite results of every trade I have made over the years that were not confirmed by a simple moving average, the figure would be negative – a big negative. By contrast, most of my large gains over the years have come from trades supported by a simple MA.

The entire advance in $ETH from early Nov 2017 through the Jan 2018 high was supported by a simple MA. Similarly, the entire decline from the late Jan 2018 high to the present has been supported by a simple MA (additionally, classical charting principles have flashed no fewer than four sell signals beginning on Feb 1).

I have no desire as a trader to pick tops and bottoms. I am very comfortable making my living between the 30-yard lines – and almost all trades between the 30-yard lines are confirmed by a simple MA. As such, the idea of considering a long position in ETH at present levels is completely foreign to me.

 

 

Factor Membership

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Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

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View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

Factor Trading - An Introduction

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These fish are for trading, not eating (the parable of Bitcoin)

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There once was a fisherman from a small Mediterranean coastal village in Malta.

He sailed out one day and had great luck, catching 300 pounds of bass and rock cod.

That evening he sold the fish to a fish broker in exchange for hard currency.

The next morning the broker, in turn, sold the fish to a wholesaler, in exchange for future credit.

The wholesaler, in turn, sold the fish to several merchants in exchange for building products.

One of the merchants sold some of the fish to a farmer in exchange for grain.

The next day, the farmer, who bought more fish than his family could eat, sold several of the fish to a neighbor in exchange for labor.

The neighbor ate the fish, and got sick.

The neighbor went back to the farmer and said, “I recant my promise for labor, the fish were not healthy for eating.”

The farmer went back to the merchant and said, “I want my grain back, the fish was spoiled.”

The merchant went back to the wholesaler and said, “Please return my building products, the fish were not suited for consumption.”

The wholesaler went back to the broker and said, “I am cancelling your credit, the fish were not eatable.”

The broker went back to the fisherman and said, “I want my hard currency back, the fish you sold me made people sick when they ate it.”

The fisherman just shrugged his shoulders and replied ….”No, you cannot have your money back. Who ever said they were ‘eating’ fish. They were just ‘trading’ fish.”

Moral of the story: There are grand claims being made about the extraordinary future for Bitcoin and other cryptos. Just consider some of the claims of the cryptomaniacs: Cryptos are going to take over the world; the future of global finance/commerce belongs to Bitcoin and (name your favorite 8hitcoin); cryptos will bring governments to their knees; Bitcoin will become more valuable than all the Gold that has ever been mined; and, cryptos will replace all fiat currencies. To some degree these claims may become true. But for now Bitcoin has gained almost no traction as a functional medium. In fact, Bitcoin (and the other cryptos) have almost entirely been a vehicle for price speculation. As such, at least at this time in history Bitcoin and its distant cousins are very little different than a pile of dead fish.

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The Factor Service welcomes Cryptomaniacs

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