Entries by Peter Brandt

Something To Watch – Crude Oil — Developing Trade

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Crude Oil -- Developing Trade

The weekly continuation graph (Crude Oil) continues to form a possible 14-month inverted H&S bottom pattern and is flagged as a Developing Trade possibility.  Notice that the right shoulder has taken the form of a possible symmetrical triangle on both the continuation and Dec contract charts. A close by the Dec contract above 49.00 would represent a buy signal, although diagonal patterns (symmetrical triangles included) lack reliability. Factor is flat.

 

A bearish technical case for Gold

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Remember three things as you read this:

  • An opinion is not a position and a position is not necessary an opinion
  • I deal in possibilities, not probabilities and certainly not certainties
  • A chart pattern does not become a pattern until it is completed -- and even then it may fail

Summary

A bearish chart case can be made for Gold based on five factors.

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Trading Psychology – The Human Side of Trading

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Overcoming self and mastering Trading Psychology is an individual struggle – this is why consistent long-term traders have developed a tremendous and unbiased awareness of self. When I came into the trading business in the mid-1970s there was a saying around the Chicago Board of Trade that went something like this … “If you want to know yourself – all your insecurities, character faults, issues of pride, areas of greed or selfishness, unresolved traits, etc. – just become a trader. How true! Self-awareness and managing the Human Side of Trading is a hallmark of every great trader I have known over the years.

Factor Member Monthly Webinar – Sep 22nd

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Recorded live September 22, 2016

Discussion Points

  • Edge - The nature of a trading scheme that provides it with the ability to carve out beta against its appropriate benchmark universe
    • Classical chart patterns - in and of themselves - provide no meaningful trading edge - in fact, no trade identification mechanism provides a meaningful edge
    • Win rate - in and of itself - provides no meaningful trading edge
  • Factor’s Edge - Factor’s edge is attributable to four primary things
  1. An emotional separation from the need to be right
  2. Aggressive risk and trade management protocols resulting in many non-injurious losses - protecting trading capital in the SINGLE DOMINATE PRIORITY
  3. Identifying and committing to very selective highly asymmetrical reward-to-risk trades
  4. Allowing the odds to provide a few trades that work immediately and provide profits of 350 to 450 plus basis points each
  • Soybean Oil - Walking through the trade

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Sample Member Q&A’s

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Here at Factor, we receive so many great questions covering Risk Management, Trade Management, Classical Charting Principles, The process of Trading, and the Human Aspect of Market Speculation. As followers of our public blog, we wanted to share just a handful of these Q&A’s with you.

Significant Factor Alert – Sep 20th

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This has been a remarkable week in the markets I have been following and featuring in Factor Updates and Alerts. I have established four different positions this week -- and it is only Tuesday -- so I figure an Alert is appropriate.
Cotton -- the rally today completed the inverted 6-week H&S pattern that has served as the retest of the underlying 2-year double bottom. I initially had a stop order in place, changed it to an alert early today, then bit the bullet and bought the market almost an hour after my alert flashed. I believe the market is now poised to trend to the initial target of 78.48 with the low 90s a possibility.

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Is it a massive Natural Gas Head & Shoulders bottom?

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Is it a massive Natural Gas Head & Shoulders bottom?

I last covered the Natural Gas market within the public blog back on June 20th, with the post "Natural Gas Rising".  Natural Gas posted a 21-year price low in Mar 2016 and the bottom took the form of a 7-month Natural Gas Head & Shoulders bottom on the daily and weekly charts. The target of this H&S at 2.934 was quickly met on Jun 29. The Factor participated in this H&S pattern in its proprietary account and discussed the pattern within the Factor member Updates (See here for details on the Factor Service).

 

Natural Gas Head & Shoulders - Monthly chart - Factor Trading

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Natural Gas — A massive H&S bottom?

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Natural Gas posted a 21-year price low in Mar 2016, as shown below on the quarterly graph.

1The bottom took the form of a 7-month H&S bottom on the daily and weekly charts. The target of this H&S at 2.934 was quickly met on Jun 29. The Factor participated in this H&S pattern in its proprietary account and discussed the pattern in the Factor Update.

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