Entries by Peter Brandt

Brexit Exit Polling by Hedge Funds

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The British government allows large hedge funds to conduct their own exit polling. They are not allowed to release their findings until 22:00 British Summer Time (BST) — there is no prohibition against their trading based on their own Brexit exit polling.

Properly sampled Brexit exit polling in UK voting is extremely accurate (usually within a +/- 1% error). Hedge funds will have a good indication on the Brexit vote by midday BST and will almost certainly have solid data by 18:00 BST. There is an embargo on publishing results until 22:00 BST. Thus, hedge funds will have a lead of many hours over the average market speculator.

Understanding global macro economics in 75 minutes

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Do yourself a huge favor and watch the following three presentations on global macro economics.

The first two are by my friend Raoul Pal, co-founder of RealVisionTV. It is my honor to be associated with RealVisionTV.

The second is by Ray Dalio, CEO and founder of Bridgewater Associates.

First, link to Raoul’s intro into his view of global macro. This video is 2:35 long. CLICK VIDEO

 

https://www.youtube.com/embed/he3SYgTQh2o

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Natural Gas Rising

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The dominant chart construction in Natural Gas is the completed 7- month H&S bottom on the daily graph (Oct contract). Note the appearance of a possible 6-day flag on the Oct chart.

Treasury Bonds (T-Bonds) are Constructive

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The dominant chart construction in Treasury Bonds (T-Bonds) is the 10-month symmetrical triangle completed on the weekly continuation graph in late Jan. The Sep T-Bonds futures contract has decisively completed a 4-month inverted H&S pattern on the daily graph. The advance this past week also completed the 4-month congestion zone on the daily continuation graph (not shown). Factor (see premium service here) is long the Sep contract. Stops have been advanced to just below Wednesday’s low.