Yesterday morning I posted “Lessons from a difficult year of trading.” The post detailed three major factors contributing to my current 13 percent drawdown and nine modifications I am making to my trading plan in response to the situation. All successful traders – discretionary and systematic – are constantly on the alert for ways to […]
This correspondence details lessons I have learned about myself, my trading and the markets as a result of a difficult year of trading. Perhaps these lessons can benefit you, especially if you are a discretionary trader who uses chart patterns for trading. I am not shy about hyping my good trades. I am also not […]
Often a pattern failure tells a better story than does a pattern completion. This is just what we have in the case of new crop December Corn. As of last week it appeared that Dec. Corn was forming a H&S top pattern. On Wednesday, May 11, the market completed the top pattern (the “A” in […]
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Risk On – Numerous charts show signs of a pending decline In the markets, as in real life, flags flying at half mast symbolize death. A number of half-mast flags and pennants in the raw material markets indicate that the steep decline in early May was just Act 1 in a two-act play. The flags […]
The S&Ps have a possible top When it comes to classical charting, it is always best when a multiplicity of developments occur. Such is the case in the S&P right now. There are three (if not four) chart developments that could support an important change in trend. FIrst, the late April breakout from the 9-week […]
Just for fun, yesterday I did a snarky post on a very short-term “pie-in-the-sky” forecast for Silver. I called for the bounce to stop between 39 and 42 (actual high was 39.47) followed by a decline to below 33, then a rally to 42. The lines on the chart below were drawn yesterday morning. So […]
Most chart patterns fail and then morph into larger patterns in a process I call “redefinition.” This is especially true of intraday charts. They are extremely unreliable. With this in mind, here is my best guess on the short-term chart structure of Silver. On the daily chart, a major top is in place. I keep hearing […]
Three reasons why Silver might be close to a temporary bottom (within a larger bear market). There will be support at the trendline from August and January lows. Today could end up as a reversal day. Small investor may be washed out — this is needed for a rally to occur. SLV had record volume […]
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