2023 Review and Best Dressed List

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January 2024: Each year at about this time, I publish the “Factor Best Dressed List,” showcasing outstanding examples of classical chartingprinciples from the just-completed year. The Best Dressed List (BDL) illustrates the types of swing trading situations Factor LLC ideally seeks in its proprietary account. These types of trading situations are a primary focus of Factor LLC’s trading.
NEW2023 Factor Prop Account Performance Summary-2
 2023 BDL
pdf icon 2023-BDL.pdf

WEBINAR: January 3rd at 10a Mountain – 2023 Markets and Best Dressed List Review

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Greetings Factor Members,

We hope you can join us for a webinar on Wednesday where Peter will review 2023 Markets and go over his Best Dressed List for this last year.

  • January 3, 2024, at 10 am, mountain
  • The webinar will be recorded and posted on the member site next week
  • CLICK HERE to register

Thank you!

Factor Update, December 31, 2023

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A comment on New Year’s Resolutions

pdf icon FactorUpdate-December-31-2023.pdf

January Eurocurrency Effect 2024

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Preface: For many years, Factor LLC has issued an annual update of “The January EUR/USD Effect” (previously titled The January FX Effect). There has been an extraordinarily strong historical tendency for the Eurocurrency to establish its annual high or low in the month of January/early February.

pdf icon January-Effect_Dec-2023_for-2024.pdf

Factor Update, December 22, 2023

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My trading activity next week will be for liquidation only. I am taking a week off from establishing new positions as I finish my review of 2023. I exited trades this past week in ETH (short), URA, NASDAQ (long tranche) and Canadian Dollars (long).

pdf icon FactorUpdate-December-23-2023.pdf

Obstacles facing Ethereum ETH

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While Ethereum has shown significant growth and potential, there are several factors that could potentially hinder its price appreciation in the future. It’s important to understand that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and influenced by a wide range of factors, both internal and external to the Ethereum network. Here are some reasons that might work against Ethereum’s price growth:

  1. Technical Challenges: Ethereum faces ongoing technical challenges, including scalability issues. While Ethereum 2.0 aims to address these through sharding and a transition to proof of stake, any delays or problems in this upgrade could negatively impact investor confidence and the price.
  2. Regulatory Risks: Cryptocurrencies are subject to a rapidly evolving regulatory landscape. Increased regulatory scrutiny or unfavorable policies could impact the adoption and price of Ethereum, as governments might impose restrictions on its use or trading.
  3. Competition: The rise of other blockchain platforms that offer similar or improved functionalities, such as Litecoin, Cardano, Solana, and others, could divert developer and user attention away from Ethereum, impacting its market position and price.
  4. Market Sentiment and Speculation: The cryptocurrency market is highly influenced by investor sentiment, which can be fickle. Negative news, market trends, or loss of investor interest could lead to a decrease in Ethereum’s price.
  5. Security Concerns: While Ethereum has a strong security record, the blockchain and its smart contracts are not immune to vulnerabilities. Any significant security breach or successful attack could lead to a loss of trust and a decline in price.
  6. Network Congestion and High Fees: Ethereum has struggled with high transaction fees and network congestion during periods of heavy use. This could push users and developers towards more efficient platforms, affecting Ethereum’s price negatively.
  7. Scaling Solutions and Layer 2 Adoption: The adoption and success of Layer 2 scaling solutions are crucial for Ethereum. If these solutions fail to deliver as expected, or if there’s slow adoption, it could negatively impact Ethereum’s usability and value.
  8. Environmental Concerns: The environmental impact of blockchain technology and crypto mining has become a significant concern. Ethereum’s shift to proof of stake aims to address this, but any perception that it’s falling short in environmental responsibility could hurt its price.
  9. Dependence on Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and NFT Markets: A substantial portion of Ethereum’s value is tied to its use in DeFi and NFTs. A downturn in these markets could lead to a decrease in Ethereum’s price.

It’s essential for investors to conduct thorough research and consider the dynamic nature of the cryptocurrency market when evaluating potential risks and rewards.

Factor Update, December 16, 2023

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Ether futures: I entered a crazy trade today – and this experiment could get complicated.

pdf icon FactorUpdate-December-16-2023.pdf

Bridgewater paper on AI Dec 2023

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This is an interesting paper on artificial intelligence
pdf icon Bridgewater-Dec-14-2023.pdf

Factor Interim Update December 8 2023

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Factor Members:

I will be traveling starting Friday through the middle of next week. There will not be a Factor Update over the weekend.
Positions as of this issuance include:
Gold.
I am actually hoping that the decline in Gold will continue and that a more proper right shoulder to a massive continuation inverted H&S might develop. Factor remains long a 50% position in GLD, which I expect to be stopped out.
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Dow futures.
Factor is long a 50% position.
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NASDAQ.
The advance on Friday confirmed the completion of a massive Cup and Handle on the NQ-055 chart. Factor went long 100%. Upon further review of the NQ charts I discovered that the spot index, NQ-056 chart and charts of the individual contract months have not confirmed the breakout. So, I covered half the position until a more complete confirmation occurs.
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Ether (ETH).
A possible running wedge has been completed. There is also the possibility that the current surge is just the last gasp throw-over rally for a bearish wedge. Time will tell. Factor is long a 50% position at 2157.25.
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Bitcoin.
Factor remains long a 50% position.
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IDR.
Factor is long a 50% position. I was stopped out of half my trade.
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URA.
Factor is long a 50% position.
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Charts on the radar screen for possible positions.
DBA.
A continuation H&S is forming. This pattern would also qualify as a bulllish compound fulcrum.
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Mar 2024 Corn futures.
A falling wedge is forming.
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AUD/NZD.
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Managing the Factor Position Unit

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In recent years the Factor Prop Account has settled into “tranche” trading. Trades entered into (usually on stop orders) are split into two tranches.

https:www.peterlbrandt.com:wp-content:uploads:2023:12:Managing-the-Factor-Position-Unit
pdf icon Managing-the-Factor-Position-Unit.pdf