The Public Blog site

Trading Drawdowns

Discussion on Trading Drawdowns

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Trading Drawdowns

The following video comes from one of our Factor Member Webinars where Peter discusses Trading Drawdowns.

  • What are drawdowns
  • How to handle drawdowns.
  • What am i doing wrong?
  • What did I miss?
  • How normal are they?

 

 

 

 

Factor Membership

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Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work.

Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

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Some Energy

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Here are just a couple of sample Energy possibilities from the past weekend member report.

 

IPE Gas Oil

The daily chart of Apr Gas Oil (diesel) completed a H&S bottom on Wednesday. Factor is long. I entered this market because its horizontal neckline and right shoulder were clearer than the necklines and right shoulders on the Brent and WTI charts.

 

 

RB Gas

I bought RB for the Factor Prop Account.

 

 

Brent Crude

Different charting techniques can provide slightly different tactical implementation. The RealRange neckline (red) was violated on Wednesday, the H/L/C chart on Thursday. Factor is flat.

 

 

 

Factor Membership

.

Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work.

Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

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Forex ideas - Factor Trading

Some Possible Forex Ideas

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Here are just a couple of sample Forex possibilities from the past weekend member report.

 

GBP/NOK

This forex cross continues to display a possible 28-month ascending triangle. I really like this pattern – but I do not like the volatility that Brexit is likely to create with any trade involving the British Pound. I am willing to go with an upside breakout of this pattern, but sized small (perhaps as small as 20,000 GPB/NOK per $200k of trading capital).

 

 

 

This cross is forming a possible rounding or complex H&S top. I am watching this cross carefully for a trading opportunity. This cross should be immune from the craziness of Brexit.

 

 

USD/JPY

I am displaying a chart of USD/JPY as a reference point for JPY because of my interest in CHF/JPY. If there is a pattern, I like less than a prolonged symmetrical triangle on a daily chart it is a prolonged symmetrical triangle on a weekly or monthly graph. Nevertheless, USD/JPY is coiling. Factor is flat – I have no trading interest in the Yen.

 

 

 

Factor Membership

.

Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work.

Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

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Soft Commodities are Shaping Up

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Many of the Soft Commodities are Shaping Up well and starting to show constructive charts.

Corn

Currently flat and working on a buy strategy.

 

 

Milling Wheat

Waiting for a breakout here.

 

 

Sugar

I will wait for a closing price completion of the inverted H&S before taking action.

 

 

Soybean Oil

Long Soybean oil.  Friday’s sharp decline places the near-term trend in Soybean Oil into some question.  Advanced stops.

 

 

 

Factor Membership

.

Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work.

Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

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Thought’s of a Full Time Trader

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From our Member Q&A archives, we believe you will find this video compilation interesting.

  • I have a full-time (non-market related) job, how do I fit trading into my schedule? 
  • What were the main challenges early in your career? 
  • Why is it difficult to make money in the markets? 
  • Why do you advise traders to avoid day trading? 

 

 

Factor Membership

.

Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work.

Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

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ABX Barrick Gold - Peter Brandt

ABX Could be Leading Gold

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ABX – Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE)

 

I have  featured ABX in recent Factor updates as a possible proxy play on Gold.   The monthly chart exhibits a 28-month falling wedge. Remember that a falling wedge is a diagonal pattern and subject to less reliability and trickier breakouts.

 

ABX Barrick Gold - Peter Brandt

 

The daily graph on ABX (Barrick Gold) displays a possible 7-week continuation H&S pattern.  Price broke out of this H&S on Friday, triggering a potential target on ABX of $18.14.

 

ABX Barrick Gold - Peter Brandt

 

 

Factor Membership

.

Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work.

Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

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Natural Gas - Factor - Peter Brandt

All Fired Up

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Natural Gas (NYMEX)

 

This will be on the 2018 Best Dressed List.  The daily continuation graph fro Natural Gas displays a possible half-mast coil with a target of 6.1xx.

 

Natural Gas - Factor - Peter Brandt

 

The Natural gas market may or may not be tradeable depending upon the nature of an upside breakout. Large spindles such as shown on the daily charts present enormous tactical trading problems.  Factor is flat.

 

 

 

 

Factor Membership

.

Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work.

Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

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Industrials Softening

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Copper

Some Industrials are acting soft here.   For Copper, a decisive decline below 264 would complete a H&S failure pattern with a target of 235. I believe that the decline on Friday was a Wyckoff Sign of Weakness day – and Friday’s high should not be penetrated.  I am willing to short Copper if the market provides a measured-risk opportunity.

 

Industrials Copper Peter Brandt Factor

 

Silver

I spoke at some length about the Silver chart during this past week’s Member Webinar.  The decline on Friday completed a H&S failure pattern with a likely objective of 1360.  Factor is short Silver.

 

Industrials Silver Peter Brandt Factor

 

 

Factor Membership

.

Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

Factor Trading - An Introduction

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Being Wrong or Getting Stopped out of a Trade is Fine

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Getting stopped out of a trade only to have it work

I receive many inquiries from Factor Members on the subject of getting stopped out of a trade only to have it turn around immediately and work. This has happened to me hundreds of times over the years. Does it bother me?

NO!

It once did – but I matured as a trader. Getting Stopped out of a trade only to have it work is the price to pay for protecting trading capital. It comes with the territory. It is the cost of being a
good risk manager. I put getting stopped into the following perspective:

• The overwhelming proportion of my net profits as a career trader have come from trades that never experienced a hard retest

• There have been hundreds of great trades in the past and there will be hundreds of great trades in the future (if I am around long enough to experience them)

I have the incredible benefit of data from thousands of actual trades. Using active and aggressive trade management guidelines does cost me some good trades. Based on my data, allowing trades more wiggle room would increase my trading profits by about 20% per year. Yet, I have hard data proving that active and aggressive trade management doubles my Profit Factor and Gain-to-Pain Ratio. I believe this trade-off between net profitability and asset volatility is completely worthwhile.

What about being wrong publicly?

In the world of the blogosphere there are distracters and there are people who really want to learn. I am so appreciative of all my readers who want to learn about the markets and trading. I so often see the earnest readers of my blog come to my defense in reply string when a distracter wanders in. I appreciate that. But, remember, everyone has an opinion and that is what makes the market what it is. People have the right to think I am clueless. That is ok, as long as they are polite in the reply string.

 

 

 

Factor Membership

.

Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

Factor Trading - An Introduction

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World Stock Markets Are Turning Over

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DAX

The German DAX has completed a H&S top with a down slanted neckline on the weekly chart. H&S tops with down slanted necklines are generally more reliable and powerful than H&S tops with an up slanted neckline.

 

World Stock Markets are turning over - Peter Brandt - Factor

Nifty/INDA

The Nifty 50 has broken its dominant trendline. INDA has completed 15-month H&S top. Factor is short INDA.

 

 

SGX China A50

The dominant chart construction is a possible 15-week rectangle on the daily SGX China A50 chart. I am willing to take a shot at the short side if this pattern is completed.

 

World-Stock-Markets-are-turning-over-china-peter-brandt-factor

 

Taiwan Index

The weekly chart is a textbook example of a complex H&S top pattern. Factor is flat – I count this as a missed trade.

 

 

Factor Membership

.

Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

Factor Trading - An Introduction

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