Update in Review
Update in Review
Update in Review
Apple Computer released news of the first quarterly sales drop since 2003 moments ago. I will suggest a “possibility.” Remember, markets are nothing but possibilities. The world of maybes is the world traders must all call home.
Is it possible for the Apple to fall from the tree?
Analyses of these charts — and many others — are routinely provided to members of the Factor Email Service (see upper menu bar)
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The H&S pattern — when properly identified — is the most reliable of all classical chart patterns. Unfortunately novice market analysts are way to quick to mislabel market action as a H&S configuration.
The H&S pattern has served as the key turning point in $AAPL since the March 2009 low. The first chart below shows the classic H&S bottom completed in March 2009. This pattern launched a $600 rally.
The late 2012 top took the form of a small H&S top. It is not unusual for H&S tops to be brief, whereas H&S bottom patterns tend to be much longer in duration.
The rally in AAPL today confirmed a 6-month H&S bottom. It appears as though the long-term bull trend in AAPL has re-emerged. The intial target of this pattern is $545. A close below $425 would negate this interpretation.
$AAPL
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The weekly Gold chart is well on its way to the target of 1266 establsihed by the April completion of a 19-month rectangle. The daily chart has now completed a continuation 9-week triangle. This triangle has a further target of 1221.
The weekly Silver chart has a target of 1615 established by the April completion of an 18-month rectangle. The daily chart is forming a possible wedge pattern. My guess is that this wedge pattern will serve as a launch to the final low in this bear market.
The montly Platinum chart displays an 18-month rectangle. Should this rectangle be decisively resolved by a downside breakout the target would become 1024.
The dominant pattern in Copper is the completion on the weekly chart of an 18-month symmetrical triangle in March. This pattern has a target of 273. My guess (or perhaps my hope) is that the daily chart will hold at the April low and a rally back toward 320 to 325 will occur. This would set up the possibility of a continuation H&S pattern. However, we would need a right shoulder rally for this to occur.
The target of the weekly and daily H&S top in the Dec. 2017 Eurodollars has been met. Meeting a downside target is not a reason to become a bull. A major trend change has taken place in the interest rate markets. Further downside targets exist at 96.51 and 94.40. The 94.40 target (representing an interest rate of 5.6%) is probably a year or so away.
The bearish implications of the completion of the 2-year symmetrical triangle on the weekly Australian Dollar chart cominue to play out. The target in this market is .8342. Do not rule out a period of congestion and short-covering strength along the way.
I am quite certain that the brief completion in recent days of the 10-month “triangle within the triangle” on the weekly Crude Oil chart will prove to be a giant bull trap (yes, for the record, I got nipped for 65 points). Yet, the bear trap is not yet official. A full bar close below the upper boundary of the triangle is required to spring the trap.
Allow me to whet your appitite with a weekly chart of the Canadian Dollar futures. The market is forming a massive 3-year H&S top pattern. The key price is 9568. A decisive close below this level would complete the pattern and establish a target of .8470.
One final chart – $AAPL. A decisive close below 415 or so would complete a 4-month H&S failure pattern with a target of 358.
Markets: $GC_F, $SI_F, $GLD, $SLV, $PL_F, $GE_F, $CL_F, $USDCAD, $AUDUSD, $HG_F
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Factor-Update-February-16-2019.pdf
