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interest rate generational low peter brandt factor trading

An Interest Rate Generational Low

Interest Rates

Being a trader for as long as I have been provides me with a sense of historical significance not possible for newcomers to market speculation. I distinctly remember the high interest rate periods of the 1970s and early 1980s. In fact, I remember the day the top of yields (and bottom of futures) was confirmed by the completion of a large symmetrical triangle (see chart). I remember the day this triangle was completed because I bought the upside breakout in futures. The completion of the H&S bottom on the weekly yield chart now completes the cycle that began in Aug 1982.

 

 

Fast forward to today, the decline below 141^27 on the daily continuation graph completed a H&S bottom failure pattern with a target of 135^11.  The daily chart of the Dec 2018 contract is also shown (with resistance at 139^24 and a target at 135^20.
The decline below 141^27 on the daily continuation graph completed a H&S bottom failure pattern with a target of 135^11. The daily chart of the Dec 2018 contract is also shown (with resistance at 139^24 and a target at 135^20

 

Our friends at Nautilus Capital produced an interesting graph this past week showing that the yield curve of U.S. treasuries is turning up from a cyclic low. This implies that yields at the long end of the curve will advance faster than yields at the short end of the yield curve.

 

 

A Generational Low?

Two chart observations are worthy of note.  First, the advance this past week in yields completed a 4+ year H&S bottom on the weekly chart with targets of 4.37% and 5.03%.  Second, the advance this past week also penetrated the upper boundary of a multi-decade channel.  It is my belief that an Interest Rate Generational Low has been confirmed in yields.

 

Weekly

generational bottom interest rates peter brandt

 

Monthly

 

 

Factor Membership

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Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
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checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
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View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

Factor Trading - An Introduction

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Crude Oil on the Rise

WTI

Crude Oil is on the Rise.  The advance on Monday confirmed the symmetrical triangle on the daily chart. The target is 78.40. The Factor Tracking Account is long the Nov mini WTI contract.
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Crude Oil

Crude Oil – Possibilities

Crude Oil - Possibilities

The possibility of a 15- month H&S bottom on the weekly chart has given way to two very different Crude Oil Possibilities: (1.) An “end-around” the 12-week symmetrical triangle, or (2.) Substantially greater morphing of the chart. I favor the “morphing” option. Under this option, prices could trade back into the mid-$30s.  The weekly continuation chart shown is based on a roll-at-first notice date.   Read More
Something To Watch - Crude Oil -- developing trade

Something To Watch – Crude Oil — Developing Trade

Crude Oil -- Developing Trade

The weekly continuation graph (Crude Oil) continues to form a possible 14-month inverted H&S bottom pattern and is flagged as a Developing Trade possibility.  Notice that the right shoulder has taken the form of a possible symmetrical triangle on both the continuation and Dec contract charts. A close by the Dec contract above 49.00 would represent a buy signal, although diagonal patterns (symmetrical triangles included) lack reliability. Factor is flat.
 
Crude Oil

Crude Oil Descending

Crude Oil Descending

Crude Oil is descending out of a triangle pattern.  The daily graphs show clear signs of topping in the energy markets. The daily graph of Sep RB Gas has completed an 11-week H&S top pattern with a target of 1.3237.

 

Crude Oil - Peter brandt - Factor

 

A couple of observations on daily continuation graph (true range) of Crude Oil are worthy of note. First, the 5-month up channel from the late Jan lows has been clearly violated. The breaking of an advancing trendline (lower boundary of a channel) is never a bearish signal in and of itself. Trendline breaks are simply an indication that the behavior of a market is changing. Second, the Crude Oil decline on Jul 7 completed a small descending triangle top with a target of 43.65, then 41.09. Factor is short Crude Oil.

 

Crude Oil - Peter Brandt - Factor

tweets - Crude oil - Peter brandt

 

Factor Membership is now available where trade setups such as Crude Oil are just one of numerous themes in focus each week.  You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work.   Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about.  For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

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Factor Update – April 9th

 

Factor Update - April 9th

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Factor Update, March 20, 2016

 

 General Market Commentary

Not all market environments are equal. Similarly, the same market environment can treat different trading styles in very different ways – some favorably, others miserably. The current markets, in my opinion, are neutral/hostile to classical charting principles. Current markets are volatile; false and premature breakouts have increased in 2016 to date; and, there is a lack of substantial patterns under construction. I have experienced this type of trading environment before – many times. There are profits to be had in some markets, but there are also an oversupply of land mines. For me, this type of trading environment has not correlated well with a robust three-month forward ROR. Of course I will continue to take signals that are promising knowing that sooner or later markets favorable to classical charting will return. Warning: I generally ignore one-day price action, preferring area patterns. Yet, nearly every market discussed in this Update experienced a narrow real-range bar on Friday that occurred at or just below the close of Thursday’s wide range day. This development suggests the possibility of a shake out next week. According, I enter next week in a very defensive frame of mind.

Market Review

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Factor Update, March 20, 2016

 

General Market Commentary

  Not all market environments are equal. Similarly, the same market environment can treat different trading styles in very different ways – some favorably, others miserably. The current markets, in my opinion, are neutral/hostile to classical charting principles. Current markets are volatile; false and premature breakouts have increased in 2016 to date; and, there is a lack of substantial patterns under construction. I have experienced this type of trading environment before – many times. There are profits to be had in some markets, but there are also an oversupply of land mines. For me, this type of trading environment has not correlated well with a robust three-month forward ROR. Of course I will continue to take signals that are promising knowing that sooner or later markets favorable to classical charting will return. Warning: I generally ignore one-day price action, preferring area patterns. Yet, nearly every market discussed in this Update experienced a narrow real-range bar on Friday that occurred at or just below the close of Thursday’s wide range day. This development suggests the possibility of a shake out next week. According, I enter next week in a very defensive frame of mind.

Market Review

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Have Gold and Crude Oil bottomed — What do the long-term charts have to say?

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