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Factor Update, January 18, 2019

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Twitter – SPX

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Factor Update, May 13, 2018

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Factor Update, May 6, 2018

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Factor Update, April 29, 2018

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Factor Update – May 15, 2016

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Factor Update – April 3rd

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Factor Report – March 13th

 

Market Review

Factor Moves are currently ongoing in:
  • Gold
  • Japanese Yen
  • USD/NOK
  • Copper
  • AUD/NZD
A Factor Move was terminated in AUD/NZD. A Factor Move is developing in USD/SEK and New Zealand Dollars. This issue of the Factor also comments on the Soybean complex, Euro, Heating Oil, Canadian Dollars and global stock markets.

Factor Moves in Progress

 

Copper (daily chart)

After falling from a high of 465 in Feb 2011, it appears that Copper bottomed at 193.55 on Jan 18. The advance on Mar 1 confirmed a H&S bottom. I have upped the initial price target to 231.90. An eventual test of the Oct 2015 high at 244 is likely. Factor is long one layer. 1     Read More

Factor Report – March 13th

 

Market Review

Factor Moves are currently ongoing in:
  • Gold
  • Japanese Yen
  • USD/NOK
  • Copper
  • AUD/NZD
A Factor Move was terminated in AUD/NZD. A Factor Move is developing in USD/SEK and New Zealand Dollars. This issue of the Factor also comments on the Soybean complex, Euro, Heating Oil, Canadian Dollars and global stock markets.

Factor Moves in Progress

 

Copper (daily chart)

After falling from a high of 465 in Feb 2011, it appears that Copper bottomed at 193.55 on Jan 18. The advance on Mar 1 confirmed a H&S bottom. I have upped the initial price target to 231.90. An eventual test of the Oct 2015 high at 244 is likely. Factor is long one layer. 1     Read More

Is the present decline in the S&Ps a déjà vu of 2011?

 

Examining the chart structures of 2011/2012 with the present period

Classical charting principles at the core represent analog analyses -- that certain price patterns tend to repeat over time with slightly different variations.

An interesting analog situation has developed in the S&Ps. Some technical analysts have declared that the current market construction is analogous to 2011/2012 and will be similarly resolved by a continuation of the dominant bull trend. I completely disagree. Let’s examine the construction components of each period. The top chart is the S&Ps during the 2011/2112 period. The bottom chart is the current market.
  • Both periods had a textbook H&S top and, coincidentally, each top was completed in the month of August -- both marked as Stage 1
  • Both periods quickly met the target of their respective H&S top patterns only to develop a period of extreme volatility -- both marked as Stage 2
  • Both periods then rallied sharply back into the price zone of the initial H&S top pattern only to develop an other range of volatility -- both marked as Stage 3
2.23_ES_2011.2012 2.23_ES_2015.2016 Read More