Tag Archive for: ZS_F

Grain markets may be on verge of final blow-off top

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How I determine risk, leverage and sizing in a trade.

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Soybean Meal — One of this year’s most bullish charts

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DJIA travels 3,141 points in one week

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Soybeans — Get ready for a price explosion!

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Charts I am watching the week of July 25, 2011

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Charts I am looking at for the week of July 18, 2011

Due to a death in the family, this may be my only post of the week.

Following are the charts that have my interest coming into a new week.

$AUDCAD — This forex pair completed a rounding top last week. I am short, but not as short as I would like to be. I will have orders in place to extend my leverage if the market can retest the top.

Silver: $SI_F, $SLV — The rally late last week completed a possible symmetrical triangle bottom. The bulls appear to be back in control in Silver. I do not have a position in Silver futures, but am long $SLV with a stop below last Wednesday’s low. 

Was my forecast for $20 Silver wrong? Right now that is the way it seems. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. I have some very bad news for all the Silver bulls who are such fond fans of my blog — I was NOT short last week. Sad, but true! I will let you know when I go short. By the way, I always trade with a stop and seldom risk more than 100 basis points per trading event (one percent of capital).  

There is another intrepretation of the Silver chart that is not as immediately bullish. I have a great dislike for chart patterns with diagonal boundaries. The symmetrical triangle is my worst enemy. I much prefer a horizontal chart boundary. Silver has not yet completed a bottom if we use horizontal boundaries to define the trading range over the past 10-weeks, as seen below.

Gold: $GC_F, $GLD — The Gold market completed a text-book continuation symmetrical triangle this past week. I am long Gold futures and Gold ETFs. Gold, unlike Silver, may one day be monetized.

Cotton: $CT_F — I feel like an idiot. I shorted Cotton really well based on the H&S top. I felt like a genius when I covered on Friday, only to have the market go limit down. I really thought the market would cover the opening gap. I got cute — and I doubt the market will let me back in. Big profits are important. I let one get away in Cotton. I should have been adding, not covering.

$EURUSD, $G6E_F, $UUP, $FXE — The decline on Wednesday completed a classic 6-point symmetrical triangle top. This completed triangle has been violated intraday, but not on a closing basis. I am short, using Thurday’s high as protection. I really thought I tagged a good one on Wednesday. The forex markets are vicious.

$USDJPY, $G6J_F, $FXY — The decline last week completed a triangle, but that is not the real story. Friday’s close is the lowest week-ending close in history, breaching the 1995 low (not shown). We may see Bank of Japan intervene next week, or it may be that the BofJ is capitulating until a lower price level is reached (such as 75.00). I am short $USDJPY and fully expect to have the BofJ run me out of the trade.

S&P 500: $SP_F, $ES_F, $SPY — This is my “pie-in-the-sky” chart. The daily graph displays a possible H&S top. If this analysis is correct (big IF), the right shoulder high is in place. This chart needs to be on everyone’s watch list. I am flat, tempted to go short under last week’s low. The CFTC Committment of Traders data released late last week was bearish.

Soybeans: $ZS_F — This is an extremely intriguing chart. I fully expect that this chart pattern will be completed by an upside breakout — whether the breakout has follow through is a different story. I am lightly long Soybean futures with a stop below the July 12 low. I will add if the market breaks out intraday. I will add more if the market breaks out on a closing basis.

All the above charts are fairly long-term in duration. As a token to you shorter-term chartists, I leave you with Crude Oil. I am not in this market and probably will not become involved due to travel, but an interesting story can be told for getting long.

Crude Oil: $CL_F, $USO — If Crude Oil was in a “for-real” bear trend, then the May low should have turned back any and all rallies. Yet, the market has now climbed back above the May low. This is a sign that the May to June decline was a correction, not the start of a new bear trend.

On a shorter-term basis, the market is forming a 7+ day symmetrical triangle. A completion of this small pattern would probably lead to a test of the June 1 high at 104+. See the hourly chart below.

Let me throw in a couple of final charts. For the first time in a very long time I have some encouraging words for the millions of you who think Natural Gas prices are too cheap.

Natural Gas: $NG_F, $UNG, $UNL, $GAZ — Being long Nat. Gas ETFs has been a losing game due to the huge carrying charges that disappear each month. The weekly chart of UNG shows the result of this time decay.

This time decay may continue to take place, but I can say with as much certainty as possible that the physical market has bottomed.  The chart of Natural Gas futures shows that the market has lifted well off the 2010 low and is forming high lows and higher highs.

There is also some signs that UNG has bottomed — the March low may hold, despite the massive supply on hand and the negative publicity on fracking.

While there may come a time to be long the ETFs for the physical commodity, I would prefer to own the ETF for the producers and other companies deriving income from the production and processing of the product. A chart of FCG ends this post.

 

Markets: $AUDCAD, $SI_F, $SLV, $GC_F, $GLD, $IAU, $CT_F, $EURUSD, $FXE, $UUP, $ZS_F, $SP_F, $SPY, $CL_F, $USO, $USDJPY, $G6J_F, $UNG, $UNL, $GAZ, $FCG

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Three chart patterns to watch this week — Gold, Soybeans and EURUSD

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Soybeans — Ready for second stage launch?

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July Soybeans — A Chart Lesson

The chart of July Soybeans is very instructive for traders using classical charting principles (Edwards and Magee or Schbacker).

As a starting point, no two classical chartists may label a chart in the same way. And even if some classical chartists agree as to pattern identification, it does not mean that:

  1. The pattern will be valid and not morph into something different, or,
  2. The traders will trade the pattern using the same entry and exit strategy, sizing and leverage, etc.

I had labeled the July Soybean chart as a 16-week symmetrical triangle. By the way, the morph rate on symmetrical triangles is quite high. Nevertheless, the pattern was mature enough that I bought the breakout on June 2 at 1402. My initial stop was based on my Last Day Rule principle (see Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader book for an explanation of this rule). The LDR price of 1383.6 was violated on June 7, stopping me out. I lost about 50 basis points on the trade.

I still have the chart labeled as the same symmetrical triangle, and view June 2nd and 3rd  as a premature breakout — although the breakout could prove to be a bull trap of significant magnitude. I will receive a secondary completion signal if the market can clear the June 3 high at 1419.4 or close above the upper boundary line of the triangle (about 1404). As of this writing, July Soybeans are trading at 1402, not high enough to trigger an entry signal. If an entry signal is generated at the close, the new Last Day Rule will be the low of today at 1385.

I will go long on a secondary completion of the pattern with a risk of 50 basis points (1/2 of 1% of capital). If I go long again and get stopped out, I will no longer follow this market. I give a pattern two chances for a clean breakout.

There is another lesson in this market. I have recently written about my dismay with high/low bar charts because of the noise factor. I have a strong bias in favor of closing price charts. On a closing price chart, August Soybeans completed the symmetrical triangle on June 2, but has not violated the pattern. A close below the May 31 close at 1372 would be required to violate the pattern.

Using closing price charts raises the subject of not using intraday stops, but rather using “stop-close-only” orders (real or mental). I discussed this idea in my blog posts titled “Lessons from a difficult year of trading” on May 24 and “Stops or no stops – a response to StockSage1” on May 25.

From a tactical point of view, using close-only stops (or much wider intraday stops) means that a trader must downsize his or her leverage or sizing in order to limit the risk of a trade to a certain basis point loss. Ideally, while the profit potential per winning trade would decrease with smaller sizing, the win/loss ratio would improve over an extended period of time in a manner to hopefully offset the lower leverage per trade.

Well, that’s my brain drain on this subject for now.

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