SSR Move Underway

BITCOIN

The advance on Jul 27 completed a 31-week inverted H&S pattern with a target of 16098. The point of negation remains the Jul 27 low, although a close below the Aug 2 low would raise questions as to the integrity of the current uptrend. It is important to note that the violation of the upper boundary of a symmetrical triangle, such as BTC has done on the weekly graph, is not a major buy signal. The Jun 2019 high must be exceeded before a major bull trend can be declared.

The 10,500-level served as resistance from Sep 2019 through the end of Jul 2020. That level should now serve as support. Support could also come from the upper boundary of the massive symmetrical triangle.

Raw materials

The SSR issued on Jul 21 featured three symbols – SLV, PPLT and GSG. SLV and PPLT have performed splendidly, but GSG was selected as the proxy of this SSR. GSG has completed an inverted H&S – but to date little upside momentum has developed. This SSR is ongoing.

SLV appears to have completed a half-mast flag of sorts, although this short-term analysis will be negated if immediate upside momentum does not occur.

AUD/JPY

The advance in this FX pair on August 27 and 28 completed a 16-month inverted H&S bottom, with the right shoulder exhibiting an ascending triangle. The target of the H&S pattern is 91.26; the ascending triangle has a target of 81.05.

Markets on the radar screen as previously issued or pending Special Situation Reports (SSRs)

U.S. Treasuries

The Factor Report SSR dated Apr 7 laid out a case for ZIRP and even NIRP by the Fed. The initial breakout by 10-Yr Notes on Jul 30 failed. I have considered this theme to be a dead idea, but a look at the weekly chart of TLT re-ignite my interest. This ETF appears to be forming a large ascending triangle. A decisive close above 172.25 would be very constructive.

Other Charts of Interest (as of this date) that might offer swing trading opportunities

China A50 and related Chinese ETFs

The China A50 has completed a multi-year ascending triangle. The consolidation at and above the upper boundary has been challenging from a tactical trading perspective. The consolidation since the early Jul breakout has taken the form of an awkward rounding pattern. Rounding patterns are notoriously difficult for breakout traders. Nevertheless, I am long the A50 (again). Some of the Chinese ETFs have provided a bit more chart clarity, as shown by the charts of CQQQ and CNYA. You will note that these two ETFs also lack the immediate follow-through that I want to see in the China A50.

Silver

Silver has completed a massive multi-year base. Ideally, I would love to see the market have a hard retest of 21 to 22, followed by some intermediate base building. Such a decline would set up the possibility of a larger continuation symmetrical triangle. I doubt that will happen, but I have traded long enough to know that anything and everything are possible. The daily chart is forming a possible flag.

2020 Special Situation Report Log

You will note that some modifications have been added to the SSR Log. One column reports a hypothetical outcome of the SSRs. This is derived by calculating a 50 BP trade using the Price Triggered and the initial Chart Negation Price (or target if it is reached).