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Factor Report – March 27th
/by Peter BrandtGeneral trading commentary
Novice traders often begin their speculative endeavors with many false assumptions. Of course, the marketplace charges a heavy tuition fee (in the way of trading losses) to correct false assumptions. Once such false assumption is that profits can be made in any and all market environments – a trader just needs to constantly adapt to changing trading environments to figure out how to cash in on the price moves. As an example, a novice day trader or scalp trader may believe that each new day in the S&Ps is a blank slate – he or she just needs to find the formula that will work for that day. Such thinking is faulty and will result in long-term trading frustrations and capital losses.
A trader cannot be successful over an extended period of time without having an organized and systematic process of trade identification, overall risk management, trade sizing, trade management and emotional/psychological stability. The reality is that any given approach to trading will have good times and bad times, good weeks and
Is it possible to copy another trader’s exact style?
/by Peter BrandtIn more than 40 years of trading, I have never met consistently profitable traders who did not have a style unique to themselves
Over the years I have constantly harped that to be successful a trader must develop his or her own unique approach to trading. The Factor is not a trading or signaling service because I do not believe in signaling services. I am privileged to have belonged for years to a private online forum that includes some of the best traders in the world – a number of whom have been featured in the Market Wizards series. Recently the subject of mirroring another trader’s style was a topic of lively discussion within the group. There were some remarkably insightful comments made that I want to share with you. These comments were made by traders whose names you would recognize. Read MoreMy Trading Day
/by Peter BrandtFactor Update, March 20, 2016
/by Peter BrandtGeneral Market Commentary
Not all market environments are equal. Similarly, the same market environment can treat different trading styles in very different ways – some favorably, others miserably. The current markets, in my opinion, are neutral/hostile to classical charting principles. Current markets are volatile; false and premature breakouts have increased in 2016 to date; and, there is a lack of substantial patterns under construction. I have experienced this type of trading environment before – many times. There are profits to be had in some markets, but there are also an oversupply of land mines. For me, this type of trading environment has not correlated well with a robust three-month forward ROR. Of course I will continue to take signals that are promising knowing that sooner or later markets favorable to classical charting will return. Warning: I generally ignore one-day price action, preferring area patterns. Yet, nearly every market discussed in this Update experienced a narrow real-range bar on Friday that occurred at or just below the close of Thursday’s wide range day. This development suggests the possibility of a shake out next week. According, I enter next week in a very defensive frame of mind.Market Review
Hodge-Podge
/by Peter BrandtIs the tarnish on Silver about to be removed?
/by Peter BrandtFive-year bear trend in Silver may be coming to an end For the past five years Factor has remained negative on the Silver charts, calling for the bottom in Dec 2014. The weekly graph has now formed a 16-month falling wedge. This pattern can serve as a primary bottom based on classical charting principles. […]