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Primer: Interest Rates & The Fed (+FREE .PDF)December 3, 2025 - 8:30 pm
Loss Aversion: A Mental Trap Every Trader Needs to KnowNovember 19, 2025 - 6:52 pm
Three Day Trailing Stop (Video)October 24, 2025 - 5:25 pm
One Year Later: GE, Classical Charting, and Avoiding Dead MoneyJuly 22, 2025 - 1:01 pm
Trading wisdom from 2,400 years ago
/by Peter BrandtIf you are a trader, you will relate When an archer is shooting for nothing . . . he has all his skill. If he shoots for a brass buckle . . . he is already nervous. If he shoots for a prize of gold . . . he goes blind; or sees two targets […]
The U.S. stock indexes are NOT making H&S tops!!!
/by Peter BrandtNote: The post herein was absolutely wrong on the analysis of the H&S top in stock indexes. Guess what -- traders are wrong from time to time. I make bold calls and some are right and some are wrong. At the end of the day, price is king and nothing else matters. Members of the Factor research service know that I over-rode the analysis herein on January 6, cautioning that the stock market had deep internal trouble.
Classical charting principles have rules. The Head and Shoulders is a classical chart configuration. The apparent and well-advertised H&S top in the U.S. stock indexes do not meet the rules.
Perma-bears, a H&S top is not sitting for you under the Xmas tree!
Sorry to all of you stock market doomsayers, but labeling the U.S. stock index charts as H&S tops just does not work. Volume is an important criteria upon which to judge the validity of the H&S patterns. Richard W. Schabacker (Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits), and later, John Magee and Robert Edwards (Technical Analysis of Stock Market Trends), are considered the pioneers in classical charting principles. According to the founders of classical charting, as a rule volume should be greatest in the left shoulder or head and lightest in the right shoulder in order to validate a H&S pattern. As the charts of the Dow Jones Composite, Dow Industrials and S&P 500 show below, the largest slug of volume has been in the right shoulder. This is NOT a sign of a valid H&S pattern, thus the interpretation of a H&S top in the U.S. stock index charts is not likely to be correct.The Chart of the Month — MSCI World Index building a top??
/by Peter BrandtMSCI World Index forming a massive 2-year H&S top
The MSCI Index appears to be rolling over in a right shoulder of a significant top pattern. One must be blind not to notice the similarities between this potential top and the chart top completed in 2008. Also, notice how the right shoulder held at the 6+ year trendline. The completion of the H&S top would also violate the trendline. A completion of this top could lead to a decline toward 1400.A chart analysis of the Swiss Franc
/by Peter BrandtCharts indicate that the USD/CHF could trade at 1.1200 and perhaps as high as 1.2350.
Swiss National Bank is intent upon driving the Franc lower (i.e., USD/CHF higher)
Note: This report represents the type of analysis routinely provided to members of the Factor Service. Members of the Factor Service have been advised for three weeks to be long USD/CHF. For information on the Factor Service, click "Subscription" on the upper menu bar. The membership rate for new members to the Factor Service will be increased by $100 per year beginning January 1.
When analyzing the charts of a commodity, stock or foreign exchange pair, it is always best to start with a long-term view and work towards the shorter-term. The 100-year chart of USD/CHF shows that the USD is extremely cheap in historical relationship with the CHF, as shown below. Market observers who believe the USD/CHF cross is overheated do not have a clue. The clueless bunch were screaming "overbought" on USD/JPY back in Jan 2013 when the cross was under 90 to 1, on its way to 123 to 1.Live Cattle charts confirm a major top
/by Peter BrandtA major top has been confirmed on the Live Cattle price graphs, projecting significantly lower prices.
The bearish case in Silver is back on the table
/by Peter BrandtSeven month symmetrical triangle has been confirmed
Decline on August 25 triggerd an 8-week H&S failure
In recent weeks I have presented to members of the Factor Service the possibility that why The Silver chart is a textbook example of the veracity of classical charting principles. Some of the features on the weekly graph include: