Factor's underwater curve changed dramatically around 2014. Is this due to measuring DD using closed trade NAV, or due to aggressive risk management? 13:50
What's your most remembered drawdown period? 16:01
How much of the drawdown period is self-inflicted as in we make the period worse ourselves rather than sticking to the trading plan we all should have? 18:01
What is an "acceptable" drawdown for those who have retirement accounts and do not have the ability to do shorter-term trades, hence, needing to hold longer? Whether that be an index fund, BTC, etc. 20:18
What practical steps do you take to deal with mental torment? 25:57
My data over two years shows that if I take every trade my total performance would be 6 X greater with fewer drawdowns. Common reasons for not pulling the trigger are: Pattern extended from MA's, Support/resistance close, pattern looks loose, not text book pattern, looking for more compression before breakout. However, looking back, they have more going for it than not. Do you have any advice here? 29:07
You mentioned "be able to take many small losses", does limiting risk to 1% but not moving stops aggressively satisfy this? 31:38
The first line in your how to have success in trading is having Defineable and Comprehensive trade. Is this a written document that you continually update? If so, is it fairly detailed and includes all of your trading weapons? I would love to see an outline if this is something that exists. 34:23 (BOOK: Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke)
What was the pivot to introducing varied bet size? My struggle is when to increase bet size, and if the next is a big winner then I'm missing out. 42:08
Do you think it makes sense to start cutting trade size if you see lots of tradable patterns to limit the risk in having more signals than normal? 44:44
Experience is the best answer to many trading questions ... Knowing your "edge" & knowing how to calculate that - Before! - placing a bet ... discovering this changed my life ... Thank you, Peter, for this discussion! 48:20
You scale out of trades and less frequently add another traunch. Could you elaborate on when and how to take a second bite? 49:06
Factor Member Webinar - Market Review and Q&A with Peter Brandt - Recorded live August 29, 2022Market Review with PeterLive questions from Members
Can you talk about deciding what patterns to trade? I find myself unable to decide which patterns I should pass up and which I should trade. If I only trade "pretty" patterns, I miss the winners. But if I trade everything, my losers stack up quickly. Any advice on what to look for in this journey of discovering my sweet spot? Is trading every horizontal pattern longer than 2 weeks a fool's errand? 26:33
You have previously said you need a "measured risk" to take a trade. But won't every pattern give you a "measured risk" using LDR? 29:11
Will you add to a position if it gives you a buy signal and you can move your stop up on the existing position to allow for a larger position with no additional risk? If not, why not? 30:04
As a price action trader, do you follow any Wyckoff observations on volume when evaluating a chart pattern? 31:16
For those who have 401k's through their workplace that are equities only (ETF's, S&P 500, etc), do you have any recommendations for investing in equities...i.e. buy and hold, trend following, moving averages, etc? 32:56
https://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Member-only-QA-this-Thursday-February-9th-at-11am-Mountain.jpg523800Peter Brandthttps://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/TheFactorReport-small-logo.jpgPeter Brandt2022-09-05 13:08:562022-09-05 13:08:56Factor Member Webinar August 2022
Factor Member Webinar and Q&A with Peter Brandt - Recorded live July 8, 2022Opening discussion/presentation by PeterLive questions from Members
How likely do you think the Bitcoin bottom is in? Do you think we are missing a bottoming pattern? 2:23
Do you change your position size going into major events? How about adding to the position if the news goes in your favor? What events are most important? 7:30
Can you recommend sources of online commentaries and analysis on the fundamentals of agricultural commodities, esp. grains (supply, demand, plantings, etc.)? 10:43
Have you ever met a successful day trader in your career? By day trader, I mean someone who gets in the market at open and is flat by closing. 14:49
How will you manage EUR-USD with today's doji reversal? 16:58
Could you please discuss the seeming paradox of aggressively mitigating risk on a per position basis, while also staying steady even through drawdowns on an account value basis? 20:31
Does palladium look like it broke out today? 27:23
Can I get a quick comment on the weekly breakouts in USD/PLN and USD/ZAR? 28:43
If you have a loser much bigger than your avg loser, would you close a parallel winning position in parallel, which can compensate the loser? Even if this winning trade runs good. I think in terms of preserving NAV as key metric. 31:11
Has your portfolio backtested your approach? Thinking more in terms of correlation risk on a portfolio and position sizing optimization rather than entry/exit etc. 32:25
I find I get chopped up with stops (both entry and exit) on the back months for futures. My background is trading a CTA where we trade on close of each market and do so manually as I manage to add positive slip by doing so. But we always trade front month. Do you have any advice on how to trade the less liquid months? 39:27
Could you please walk through the diamond setup in European carbon credits? 42:48
Please address the topic of taking signals from smaller continuation patterns from within a 'strong trend' that has already lasted a good length (historically) and could be tired? 45:04
Do you see any signs of bottoming in biotech? Xbi? 48:00
Can you review your methodology of placing stops for an initial BO entry and then how to move them up on a trailing basis? 49:23
When setting an exit stop on a long position, do you subtract the same percentage of ATR from a key chart point as you do with your entry stops, or do you use a different percentage of ATR? 56:25
Latest thoughts on AUDUSD? 56:57
Can you comment on what you're looking for before entering a short on Soybeans, Soybean Meal, and Canadian Dollars? 59:12
https://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Member-only-QA-this-Thursday-February-9th-at-11am-Mountain.jpg523800Peter Brandthttps://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/TheFactorReport-small-logo.jpgPeter Brandt2022-07-17 14:22:232022-07-17 14:27:22Factor Member Webinar July 2022
https://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Screen-Shot-2022-06-20-at-9.08.05-AM.png359640Peter Brandthttps://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/TheFactorReport-small-logo.jpgPeter Brandt2022-06-20 10:14:352022-06-20 10:24:03Real Vision interview – Lessons on Risk and Crypto, Peter Brandt and Mark Ritchie II
https://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Screen-Shot-2022-05-20-at-3.59.48-PM.png359640Peter Brandthttps://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/TheFactorReport-small-logo.jpgPeter Brandt2022-05-20 17:19:552022-05-20 17:19:55Real Vision interview – Peter Brandt interviews Jurrien Timmer, Chart Your Way Through Choppy Waters
Factor Member Webinar September 2022 – Drawdowns
/by Peter BrandtThis webinar is specific to the Drawdown document issued on August 29, 2022, "The Dreaded “D” Word, August 2022"
Live questions from Members
- Factor's underwater curve changed dramatically around 2014. Is this due to measuring DD using closed trade NAV, or due to aggressive risk management? 13:50
- What's your most remembered drawdown period? 16:01
- How much of the drawdown period is self-inflicted as in we make the period worse ourselves rather than sticking to the trading plan we all should have? 18:01
- What is an "acceptable" drawdown for those who have retirement accounts and do not have the ability to do shorter-term trades, hence, needing to hold longer? Whether that be an index fund, BTC, etc. 20:18
- I started paper trading eight months ago and have had equity vol but no progression; still at around break even. Very difficult to know if this is a natural DD or just not a working system! 23:22 (A Brief Introduction to Probability Theory and the Random Distribution of Results: Understanding the Concept of Sequencing in a Trading Operation)
- What practical steps do you take to deal with mental torment? 25:57
- My data over two years shows that if I take every trade my total performance would be 6 X greater with fewer drawdowns. Common reasons for not pulling the trigger are: Pattern extended from MA's, Support/resistance close, pattern looks loose, not text book pattern, looking for more compression before breakout. However, looking back, they have more going for it than not. Do you have any advice here? 29:07
- You mentioned "be able to take many small losses", does limiting risk to 1% but not moving stops aggressively satisfy this? 31:38
- The first line in your how to have success in trading is having Defineable and Comprehensive trade. Is this a written document that you continually update? If so, is it fairly detailed and includes all of your trading weapons? I would love to see an outline if this is something that exists. 34:23 (BOOK: Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke)
- How do you decide when to move stops and to where? 38:05 (A protocol for Entering Trades Using ATR Stop Levels)
- What was the pivot to introducing varied bet size? My struggle is when to increase bet size, and if the next is a big winner then I'm missing out. 42:08
- Do you think it makes sense to start cutting trade size if you see lots of tradable patterns to limit the risk in having more signals than normal? 44:44
- Experience is the best answer to many trading questions ... Knowing your "edge" & knowing how to calculate that - Before! - placing a bet ... discovering this changed my life ... Thank you, Peter, for this discussion! 48:20
- You scale out of trades and less frequently add another traunch. Could you elaborate on when and how to take a second bite? 49:06
Read MoreFactor Member Webinar August 2022
/by Peter Brandt- Can you talk about deciding what patterns to trade? I find myself unable to decide which patterns I should pass up and which I should trade. If I only trade "pretty" patterns, I miss the winners. But if I trade everything, my losers stack up quickly. Any advice on what to look for in this journey of discovering my sweet spot? Is trading every horizontal pattern longer than 2 weeks a fool's errand? 26:33
- You have previously said you need a "measured risk" to take a trade. But won't every pattern give you a "measured risk" using LDR? 29:11
- Will you add to a position if it gives you a buy signal and you can move your stop up on the existing position to allow for a larger position with no additional risk? If not, why not? 30:04
- As a price action trader, do you follow any Wyckoff observations on volume when evaluating a chart pattern? 31:16
- For those who have 401k's through their workplace that are equities only (ETF's, S&P 500, etc), do you have any recommendations for investing in equities...i.e. buy and hold, trend following, moving averages, etc? 32:56
Read MoreFactor Member Webinar July 2022
/by Peter Brandt- How likely do you think the Bitcoin bottom is in? Do you think we are missing a bottoming pattern? 2:23
- Do you change your position size going into major events? How about adding to the position if the news goes in your favor? What events are most important? 7:30
- Can you recommend sources of online commentaries and analysis on the fundamentals of agricultural commodities, esp. grains (supply, demand, plantings, etc.)? 10:43
- Have you ever met a successful day trader in your career? By day trader, I mean someone who gets in the market at open and is flat by closing. 14:49
- How will you manage EUR-USD with today's doji reversal? 16:58
- Could you please discuss the seeming paradox of aggressively mitigating risk on a per position basis, while also staying steady even through drawdowns on an account value basis? 20:31
- Does palladium look like it broke out today? 27:23
- Can I get a quick comment on the weekly breakouts in USD/PLN and USD/ZAR? 28:43
- If you have a loser much bigger than your avg loser, would you close a parallel winning position in parallel, which can compensate the loser? Even if this winning trade runs good. I think in terms of preserving NAV as key metric. 31:11
- Has your portfolio backtested your approach? Thinking more in terms of correlation risk on a portfolio and position sizing optimization rather than entry/exit etc. 32:25
- I am wondering if there are any good books or educational materials regarding the ag markets and cyclical tendencies on which contracts to focus on? New crop vs. old crop and knowledge may keep a futures trader out of trouble. 37:09 (Book Link: A Complete Guide to the Futures Market Technical Analysis, Trading Systems, Fundamental Analysis, Options, Spreads, and Trading Principles by Jack Schwager)
- I find I get chopped up with stops (both entry and exit) on the back months for futures. My background is trading a CTA where we trade on close of each market and do so manually as I manage to add positive slip by doing so. But we always trade front month. Do you have any advice on how to trade the less liquid months? 39:27
- Could you please walk through the diamond setup in European carbon credits? 42:48
- Please address the topic of taking signals from smaller continuation patterns from within a 'strong trend' that has already lasted a good length (historically) and could be tired? 45:04
- Do you see any signs of bottoming in biotech? Xbi? 48:00
- Can you review your methodology of placing stops for an initial BO entry and then how to move them up on a trailing basis? 49:23
- What currency brokerages do you recommend? 52:48
- What is your take on having diverse trading systems as recommended by Mark Andrew Ritchie in his Trading Bible? 54:46 (Book Link: My Trading Bible by Mark Ritchie)
- When setting an exit stop on a long position, do you subtract the same percentage of ATR from a key chart point as you do with your entry stops, or do you use a different percentage of ATR? 56:25
- Latest thoughts on AUDUSD? 56:57
- Can you comment on what you're looking for before entering a short on Soybeans, Soybean Meal, and Canadian Dollars? 59:12
Read MoreReal Vision interview – Lessons on Risk and Crypto, Peter Brandt and Mark Ritchie II
/by Peter BrandtReal Vision interview – Peter Brandt interviews Jurrien Timmer, Chart Your Way Through Choppy Waters
/by Peter Brandt