Just for fun, yesterday I did a snarky post on a very short-term “pie-in-the-sky” forecast for Silver. I called for the bounce to stop between 39 and 42 (actual high was 39.47) followed by a decline to below 33, then a rally to 42. The lines on the chart below were drawn yesterday morning.
So far so good. Pure luck…if I am right it will be pure luck. A wild guess! A hail-mary pass! I admit it. Of course, I am far from right yet. Alot can happen. The Silver market (and any other market) can do anything it wants to do whenever it wants to do it and it would not surprise me. The Silver market is NOT accountable to my whims or wishes or wild guesses.
I had a number of folks challenge my forecast, wanting to know on what technical or chart basis I would come to such conclusions.
I have no idea if I will be right — like I stated above, I was taking a wild swing in the dark — but I will share with you my reasoning (right or wrong).
My price scenario was based purely and soley on what I thought the market had (has) to do to most severely punish Silver bulls, more specifically, Silver bulls that are long above 40 per oz. My secret is out! I have told it all. My market call had NO basis in technical analysis. Period! My career as a classical chartist is over. I have sinned against my craft. I created a scenario that was based on what I thought the Silver market could do to most demoralize the johnny-come-lately Silver bulls.
I could have also created a price scenario of what I think the Silver market could do to most severely punish the Silver bears. Perhaps I will share this in the days to come. Perhaps a “punish-the-bears” scenario is the real agenda of the Silver market.
The truth be told, I could care less which scenario comes to pass. I have no vested interest in Silver. I am a trader. I trade price, not market biases, not fundamental scenarios, not Fed doomsday events, not the future value of the US$. And by the way, the last time I checked the U.S. Dollar is not traded in the Silver pit. Never has been. Never will be. There is an actual contract for trading the Dollar.
That’s all for now, folks.