Entries by Peter Brandt

Factor Alert, November 16, 2016 — Cotton

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Cotton is a member of the notorious New York "C" gang of thieves -- Cotton, Copper, Cocoa and Coffee. The NY Cs are very difficult markets to trade using classical charting principles. These markets periodically offer excellent chart signals (such as just occurred in Copper) -- but as a rule most classical patterns in the C-markets provide frustration.

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EUR/USD, seasonality and the ADX indicator

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There are several technical features of EUR/USD that traders should be aware of at this point in time.

Seasonality
 
There is an extremely strong tendency for EUR/USD to experience its annual high or low in the month of January. In fact, in 35 of the past 46 years the annual high or low occurred in Jan -- with the high or low occurring in Feb or early Mar in another four years. I believe the high or low in EUR/USD will occur in early Jan in 2017 -- and, of course, my present bias is for a high to occur.
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Freeport McMoran (FCX) (Trade Idea)

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The dominant chart construction in this stock is the 16-month H&S bottom on the weekly chart. A decisive move and close above 14.70 will be my signal to buy. Factor is flat.

Factor Alert — Eurocurrency and USDX

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EUR/USD

The decline on Friday (with the follow-through today) has completed a 9-month H&S top pattern, setting up a test of the lower boundary of a 20-month consolidation. As mentioned by the November 13, 2016 Factor Update, I view this H&S as the possible launching pad for the completion of the larger congestion area.

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Crude Oil – Possibilities

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Crude Oil - Possibilities

The possibility of a 15- month H&S bottom on the weekly chart has given way to two very different Crude Oil Possibilities:

(1.) An “end-around” the 12-week symmetrical triangle, or

(2.) Substantially greater morphing of the chart. I favor the “morphing” option.

Under this option, prices could trade back into the mid-$30s.  The weekly continuation chart shown is based on a roll-at-first notice date.

 

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