The Public Blog site

U.S. stock market — caught between a rock and a hard place

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Don’t expect a follow through trend anytime soon in U.S. stocks. This market is about to get volatile in a relatively tight range. At least, that is what the chart is telling me.

The chart of the nearby S&P futures contract shows that the market is between a rock and a hard place. Above the market exists a completed H&S top. This is a powerful reversal pattern (one that I believe will ultimately prevail).

Below the market is arguably a double bottom. The other indexes do not show a similar pattern, but the nearby S&P futures chart fulfills (barely) the general Edwards and Magee criteria for the pattern. The lows are more than a month apart, but the height is only 13% of the value (the criteria is 20%). Also, the rally from the Oct. 4 low should have experienced some pick up in volume, but not as much as was characterized by the first low.

In any case, I think this market will spend some time int he 1200 to 1260 range (+/- 15 to 20 points). The pattern above should keep the market from rallying too much. The pattern below will provide support.

We will see how this market situation becomes resolved. Stay tuned, sports fans.

$SPY, $ES_F

What is the %win vs. %loss ratio of your present trading scheme?

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I am gathering data sets for posts I will eventually write on risk management based on probability theory. You will all be shocked with the results of the modeling. I will post the results of the modeling, but not the construct of the model.
I need your cooperation. There will be one more poll after this one. Please forward the link to anyone you think can contribute to the polling results.

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The difference between a market opinion and trading

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New poll: As a percent of trading capital, what is your average risk per trading event?

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Please answer this poll. Be honest — I have no way of knowing who participated or who answered what.

I plan to convert the results into a data set, that when combined with the data from a couple of future polls, will allow me to do some posts on risk management and probability theory.

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The merry march of the miserable metals

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Owning UNG is a losers game

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Silver ($SLV) – it doesn’t get any uglier than this!

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My Thoroughly Enjoyable Interview with Charles Kirk

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Peter Brandt

The following is an interview I recently conducted with Charles Kirk of the Kirk Report. I highly recommend his research service. PLB   To conclude my summer interview series, I cannot think of a more interesting, knowledgeable and experienced trader to interview than Peter Brandt! When I asked members in the mid-year membership survey for recommendations on who to interview next, Peter's name was near the top of that list. It is obvious to see why - his website has become a trusted resource among many and, like many of you, I have also found Peter's analysis consistently interesting and insightful. Peter has shared quite a few gems with us in the following interview and offers keen insight for both new and experienced traders alike. We hope you find this interview helpful to explore some ideas and methods in the development of your own strategy. Q&A with Peter Brandt Read More

Humble pie tastes alot like shoe leather

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Strong opinions, meekly held

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