The Public Blog site

2018 Gold Outlook

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2018 Gold Outlook

I believe there is a good chance that the precious metals will be an outstanding asset class in 2018 – Gold could outperform Bitcoin in the year ahead. The monthly Gold chart is shown to provide some historic perspective. Notice that the market is still finding its footing after the 2012 violation of its parabolic advance.

 

2018 Gold Outlook - Factor Trading - Peter Brandt

The weekly chart (RealRange) displays a possible massive inverted H&S pattern.  I am keenly interested in the long side of 2018 Gold futures. Factor is presently flat.
2018 Gold Outlook - Factor Trading - Peter Brandt

A chart courtesy of McClellan Financial indicates that Gold is advancing from 8-year cycle lows.

 

2018 Gold Cycles

Source: http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/golds_8-year_cycle/

 

Also shown are a number of graphs for Gold-related ETFs and gold mining companies.

 

 

Factor Membership

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Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

Factor Trading - An Introduction

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These fish are for trading, not eating (the parable of Bitcoin)

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There once was a fisherman from a small Mediterranean coastal village in Malta.

He sailed out one day and had great luck, catching 300 pounds of bass and rock cod.

That evening he sold the fish to a fish broker in exchange for hard currency.

The next morning the broker, in turn, sold the fish to a wholesaler, in exchange for future credit.

The wholesaler, in turn, sold the fish to several merchants in exchange for building products.

One of the merchants sold some of the fish to a farmer in exchange for grain.

The next day, the farmer, who bought more fish than his family could eat, sold several of the fish to a neighbor in exchange for labor.

The neighbor ate the fish, and got sick.

The neighbor went back to the farmer and said, “I recant my promise for labor, the fish were not healthy for eating.”

The farmer went back to the merchant and said, “I want my grain back, the fish was spoiled.”

The merchant went back to the wholesaler and said, “Please return my building products, the fish were not suited for consumption.”

The wholesaler went back to the broker and said, “I am cancelling your credit, the fish were not eatable.”

The broker went back to the fisherman and said, “I want my hard currency back, the fish you sold me made people sick when they ate it.”

The fisherman just shrugged his shoulders and replied ….”No, you cannot have your money back. Who ever said they were ‘eating’ fish. They were just ‘trading’ fish.”

Moral of the story: There are grand claims being made about the extraordinary future for Bitcoin and other cryptos. Just consider some of the claims of the cryptomaniacs: Cryptos are going to take over the world; the future of global finance/commerce belongs to Bitcoin and (name your favorite 8hitcoin); cryptos will bring governments to their knees; Bitcoin will become more valuable than all the Gold that has ever been mined; and, cryptos will replace all fiat currencies. To some degree these claims may become true. But for now Bitcoin has gained almost no traction as a functional medium. In fact, Bitcoin (and the other cryptos) have almost entirely been a vehicle for price speculation. As such, at least at this time in history Bitcoin and its distant cousins are very little different than a pile of dead fish.

$$

Structural and functional problems with the Cryptocurrency markets

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The cryptocurrency markets are in their infancy – and accordingly suffer many problems that time and technology will resolve. Some of the problems include:

  • Despite the claims of blockchain’s revolutionary technology, it takes far too long for transactions/trades to clear the chain.
  • Opening an account with many crypto exchanges can be a time consuming and frustrating experience.
  • It takes an excessive period of time for deposits to be posted to an account.
  • While coins can be safely held in hard wallets, hard wallets can become lost, stolen or damaged.
  • While coins can be sorted securely on hard wallets, what protects the flat balances at the various exchange from hackers or exchange bankruptcies?
  • Hard wallet depositories are akin to burying Gold in the backyard. It is an irony that cryptos represent the most advanced internet/financial/commercial technology, yet crypto traders are storing millions of dollars on a USB device. REALLY?
  • The bid/offer spreads at many exchanges are far too wide. It is often difficult and time consuming to “cross the spread” (buy at the offer or sell at the bid).
  • The price of the same coin varies considerably from exchange to exchange. This makes charting extremely difficult.
  • Good luck receiving guidance from an exchange’s help desk. In fact, has anyone even spoken by phone to a support person at any exchange?
  • The transaction fees at some exchanges would add time to Bernie Madoff’s sentence.
  • It can take forever to withdraw funds from an exchange – many exchanges limit the amount of each withdrawal and intentionally hold customers funds as long as possible.
  • Moving coins from one exchange to another (either directly or with a hard wallet as the pivot) can be a time consuming activity, preventing aggressive arbitrage operations.
  • The web site/trading platform of some exchanges crash when a trader most needs to place an order.
  • The cryptos are far too volatile. The volatility will prevent wide commercial/institutional acceptance over the long haul.
  • The lack of unified price settlements will also prevent commercial/institutional acceptance.

Feel free to add to this list via Twitter

Tweet Storm

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While on Twitter last night, I engaged followers in an unscripted Q&A session.  The exercise was quite enjoyable in fact and we thought we would share the experience on the website today.    Here is a transcript of that Tweet Storm for you.

 

 

Factor Membership

.
Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

Factor Trading - An Introduction

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A Final Move

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The dominant chart construction in Gold continues to be the possibility of an inverted H&S bottom pattern on the weekly and monthly graphs.  Note: Some of you might have read that Ray Dalio (Bridgewater) is accumulating a sizable position in GLD. I believe Dalio will be right, but that he is early. See http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-13/ray-dalio-goes-gold-buying-spree-adds-575-gld-holdings-becomes-8th-largest-holder

 

 

 

I have written extensively about the possibility of a Q1 low at or just above 1200. The daily chart displays a possible continuation descending triangle. Depending upon how/time of day this pattern is completed I may be willing to take a shot at the short side.

 

 

SILJ – Jr.  Silver MinerETF chart hasbroken down

 

The weekly chart of PureFunds ISE Junior Miners (SILJ) displays a completed 14-month descending triangle. Factor is short with a target at 6.41

 

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Factor Membership

.
Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading.  Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work.   Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about.  For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

Factor Trading - An Introduction

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A Collection of Member Q&A’s

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Member Q&A's with 40+ years of insight

 
The below are just a few (of hundreds) Q&A's we receive at the Factor Service.  We thought you might find some of these helpful.
Question:Peter, could you condense as briefly as possible the approach you take to trading? Read More

Ascending Triangle – Guest Post

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Factor Trading is honored to be partnered with my friend Aksel Kibar and his firm TechCharts to provide comprehensive coverage of global forex, futures and equity markets from the perspective of classical charting principles.   Below is a guest post I thought provided members of Factor and the wider community with great value. Regards, Peter Brandt  

Ascending Triangle  - Video Tutorial

by Aksel Kibar   Right angle triangles, with the hypotenuse slanting upwards from the origin of the pattern, are Ascending Triangle chart patterns and they are bullish.

The below educational video describes how to identify a bullish ascending triangle, along with some of the characteristics of this pattern that could help you identify and take advantage of such patterns within your own personal trading.

Read More
US Dollar Index - Peter Brandt

A Possible Turn in Direction

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$US Dollar Index

The US Dollar market continues to form a 3-month inverted H&S bottom on the daily graph.  I have been anticipating a right shoulder low for late October, so have I was hoping for a bigger dip into the right shoulder low.
I am earnestly seeking a buying opportunity in this market and will go long on an upside completion of the H&S bottom.
 
Crude Oil - Factor Trading - Peter Brandt

The Next Big Crude Oil Move

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 The Next Big Crude Oil Move
 The weekly continuation chart of WTI Crude Oil displays an 18-month H&S top pattern. This is a chance that the Sep 28 high will represent the high of the right shoulder.
 
Crude Oil - Factor Trading - Peter Brandt
Read More
Trading Performance - Factor Trading - Peter Brandt

The 3 Most Important Ways to Track Trading Performance

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Trading Performance

Human beings exist day-to-day in a world preoccupied by statistical measures, ranging from numerous personal health metrics (blood pressure, PSA counts, temperature, oxygen levels, heart rate, etc.) to standard weights & measures (gallons, pounds, meters, temperature, etc.) to determinants of economic well-being (GDP, unemployment rates, inflation rates, interest rates, balance-of-payments, etc.) to statistical definitions of every area of our lives. Modern society could not exist without measuring nearly every conceivable thing. Yet, many traders make no attempt to convert their Trading Performance into meaningful metrics. This is unfortunate because meaningful metrics are not simply interesting statistics – rather they can serve important functions:
  • Dictate and guide the development of trading strategy
  • Monitor trading outcomes against intended benchmarks
  • Diagnose potential problems
Read More