The dream of novice market speculators is that they will continually bask in the warmth of profitable times. This myth is falsely promised by the promoters of trading systems and trading training programs. In fact, just the opposite is true. Most long-term profitable traders spend the vast majority of their trading careers either in a trading drawdown or recovering from a drawdown. Any slick promoter who tells you different is not dealing from a full deck.
There is a statistical concept known as the “underwater curve.” The underwater curve plots the time periods when new all-time high NAV levels are being registered (represented by “0” on an underwater curve) and the time periods in which drawdowns are either underway or in recovery back toward new all-time NAV levels.
U.S. stocks remain in strong underlying bull trends. The dominant pattern in the NASDAQ is a completed 18-month H&S failure pattern with a target of 5413.
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The advance in Silver is consolidating in the form of a rectangle. This consolidation could propel the market to its next Silver Target at 22.47, or lead to a retest of support at 18.00.
The dominant chart construction in EM futures (Emerging Markets) remains the completed 10- month H&S bottom pattern on the weekly chart wherein the final stage of the right shoulder was an independent 5-week H&S on the daily graph (red box). The initial profit target is 951 with a further potential of 1100 (Sep 2014 high). I continue to note the substantial overhead resistance on the weekly graph above 850.
I hate to be the bearer of bad news to some of you, but taking losses is the primary job description of a market speculator. If Losing Trades offend you or upset your emotional chemistry, if you consider “being wrong” to be a character fault or a “problem” with your trading approach, if you even think that the marketplace cares what you think or what you do, then market speculation is probably not for you. Trading is mostly an exercise of throwing mud against the wall to see what sticks – and most lumps of mud fall quickly to the floor. I have known many extremely profitable career traders over the years and very few of them have a win rate in excess of 50%. Almost to a person, these traders view taking losses (many losses) as the process of finding winners.
The dominant construction on the Cotton Chart continues to be the completed 24-month double bottom on the weekly Cotton Chart. The targets of this bottom are 79.10 (the measured move) and 95.10 (May 2014 high). The Dec contract was launched by a 5- week pennant. Factor is long, having taken partial profits.
Trading Drawdowns
/by Peter BrandtThe dream of novice market speculators is that they will continually bask in the warmth of profitable times. This myth is falsely promised by the promoters of trading systems and trading training programs. In fact, just the opposite is true. Most long-term profitable traders spend the vast majority of their trading careers either in a trading drawdown or recovering from a drawdown. Any slick promoter who tells you different is not dealing from a full deck.
There is a statistical concept known as the “underwater curve.” The underwater curve plots the time periods when new all-time high NAV levels are being registered (represented by “0” on an underwater curve) and the time periods in which drawdowns are either underway or in recovery back toward new all-time NAV levels.
U.S. Stocks Ignoring Logic
/by Peter BrandtU.S. Stocks Ignoring Logic
U.S. stocks remain in strong underlying bull trends. The dominant pattern in the NASDAQ is a completed 18-month H&S failure pattern with a target of 5413.Next Possible Silver Targets
/by Peter BrandtThe advance in Silver is consolidating in the form of a rectangle. This consolidation could propel the market to its next Silver Target at 22.47, or lead to a retest of support at 18.00.
Emerging Markets Index
/by Peter BrandtThe dominant chart construction in EM futures (Emerging Markets) remains the completed 10- month H&S bottom pattern on the weekly chart wherein the final stage of the right shoulder was an independent 5-week H&S on the daily graph (red box). The initial profit target is 951 with a further potential of 1100 (Sep 2014 high). I continue to note the substantial overhead resistance on the weekly graph above 850.
Winning Trades and Losing Trades
/by Peter BrandtI hate to be the bearer of bad news to some of you, but taking losses is the primary job description of a market speculator. If Losing Trades offend you or upset your emotional chemistry, if you consider “being wrong” to be a character fault or a “problem” with your trading approach, if you even think that the marketplace cares what you think or what you do, then market speculation is probably not for you. Trading is mostly an exercise of throwing mud against the wall to see what sticks – and most lumps of mud fall quickly to the floor. I have known many extremely profitable career traders over the years and very few of them have a win rate in excess of 50%. Almost to a person, these traders view taking losses (many losses) as the process of finding winners.
Cotton Chart
/by Peter BrandtThe dominant construction on the Cotton Chart continues to be the completed 24-month double bottom on the weekly Cotton Chart. The targets of this bottom are 79.10 (the measured move) and 95.10 (May 2014 high). The Dec contract was launched by a 5- week pennant. Factor is long, having taken partial profits.