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Primer: Interest Rates & The Fed (+FREE .PDF)December 3, 2025 - 8:30 pm
Loss Aversion: A Mental Trap Every Trader Needs to KnowNovember 19, 2025 - 6:52 pm
Three Day Trailing Stop (Video)October 24, 2025 - 5:25 pm
One Year Later: GE, Classical Charting, and Avoiding Dead MoneyJuly 22, 2025 - 1:01 pm
Soybean Oil Next In Line
/by Peter BrandtSoybean Oil Next In Line
There is some analog history for a bull trend in Soybean Oil to follow a bull market in Soybean Meal by six to 12 months. I would define the Apr-Jun 2016 advance in Meal to be a bull market. The H&S forming on the weekly Soybean Oil graph is my current favorite developing pattern. Factor is long Soybean Oil with a decided interest to extend leverage. This market has the potential to be a 1000 basis point trade. Read MoreBritish Pound (GBP/USD)
/by Peter BrandtThe dominant chart construction in Cable is the completed 30- year rectangle on the quarterly graph with a target of 1.0345 — and .7790 as an outside possibility. As pointed out in the discussion of Commitment of Traders data herein, specs have an all-time record short position and commercials an all-time record long position in Pound futures. This is not typically a profile consistent with a further downward trend. I would not be surprised if GBP retests major resistance in the 1.39 to 1.41 zone. Factor is flat. If the Cable does rally toward 1.40 I will be watching closely for a selling opportunity in the way of a small topping pattern on the daily chart. There is also a chance – supported by Friday’s reversal day – that the daily chart is forming a symmetrical triangle congestion.
Trading Drawdowns
/by Peter BrandtThe dream of novice market speculators is that they will continually bask in the warmth of profitable times. This myth is falsely promised by the promoters of trading systems and trading training programs. In fact, just the opposite is true. Most long-term profitable traders spend the vast majority of their trading careers either in a trading drawdown or recovering from a drawdown. Any slick promoter who tells you different is not dealing from a full deck.
There is a statistical concept known as the “underwater curve.” The underwater curve plots the time periods when new all-time high NAV levels are being registered (represented by “0” on an underwater curve) and the time periods in which drawdowns are either underway or in recovery back toward new all-time NAV levels.
U.S. Stocks Ignoring Logic
/by Peter BrandtU.S. Stocks Ignoring Logic
U.S. stocks remain in strong underlying bull trends. The dominant pattern in the NASDAQ is a completed 18-month H&S failure pattern with a target of 5413.Next Possible Silver Targets
/by Peter BrandtThe advance in Silver is consolidating in the form of a rectangle. This consolidation could propel the market to its next Silver Target at 22.47, or lead to a retest of support at 18.00.
Emerging Markets Index
/by Peter BrandtThe dominant chart construction in EM futures (Emerging Markets) remains the completed 10- month H&S bottom pattern on the weekly chart wherein the final stage of the right shoulder was an independent 5-week H&S on the daily graph (red box). The initial profit target is 951 with a further potential of 1100 (Sep 2014 high). I continue to note the substantial overhead resistance on the weekly graph above 850.