I have absolutely no control if the next trade or series of trades will be profits or losses. However, with a proper Trade Management process, I know that I only have control over:
The patterns I identify as trading opportunities – do they meet a certain standard?
The orders I enter – is my order entry processes consistent with conducting trading as an organized business enterprise?
Leverage and sizing – (Risk Management) am I risking too much, but also, am I risking enough to make a trade matter if I am right?
Ongoing Trade Management – am I taking the right balance between protecting capital and allowing a trade to fully develop?
While I believe Gold has experienced a cyclic bottom, gold is pausing here. I have for several months openly expressed my opinion that the advance would be choppy at best. In recent Factor updates (premium service) I have highlighted the significant problem with the composition of open interest – the commercial interests with a record short position and the large specs (hedge funds and large traders) with a record long position. The Gold market gained way too many friends too early. I am not surprised by the lack of upside follow through in Gold. I might be interested in buying a retest of the falling wedge on the weekly graph in the 1170 to 1180 zone.
For a considerable period of time I have held a very negative opinion on the Euro. The Euro currency has a complicated history. The Maastricht Treaty of 1992 obligated certain Euro nations to adopt a common currency – although it was not until Jan 2002 that currencies such as the D-Mark were officially replaced by the Euro currency mechanism. It is possible to create a proxy EUR that dates back to 1992. In fact, IMM and proxy price data exist back to the early 1970s. Several technical developments on the EUR graphs are worthy of note.
https://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Long-Term-Euro-Charts-Point-to-Trouble-Ahead-Peter-brandt.jpg8881333Peter Brandthttps://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/TheFactorReport-small-logo.jpgPeter Brandt2016-05-24 10:51:282016-05-24 10:51:28Long Term Euro Charts Point to Trouble Ahead
It is with some discomfort that I am always pointing out potential tops in the U.S. stock market indexes. But, I must call them as I read them. The S&P daily chart has made ZERO upward progress in 18 months. A possible complex H&S top formation is under construction. Also note the appearance of a 7-week H&S top pattern. I am willing to short this smaller H&S pattern if given a well-defined risk point. I will give up on a bearish interpretation of the S&Ps if a new high is made – but this does not mean I would have any interest in being long in new high territory.
I remain a long-term bull on the U.S. Dollar. Like every other chartist in the world, I am well aware that the DX penetrated the important line of support at 93.00 this past week. I had absolutely no desire to short the apparent breakout of this level. In fact, I believe the decline below 92.00 was a gigantic bear trap – bringing in new shorts and washing out stalled longs.
https://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/bullish-on-the-US-dollar-index-Peter-brandt-Factor-Trading.jpg8961333Peter Brandthttps://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/TheFactorReport-small-logo.jpgPeter Brandt2016-05-09 10:54:402016-05-09 10:54:40Bullish on the US Dollar Index
The dominant chart construction in Platinum is the completed 9-month H&S bottom on the weekly and daily graphs with an implied profit target of 1179. Note the near perfect Apr 25 retest of the neckline on the daily chart. The strength on Apr 28 goes a long way to confirm the H&S bottom interpretation.
Simple Trade Management
/by Peter BrandtI have absolutely no control if the next trade or series of trades will be profits or losses. However, with a proper Trade Management process, I know that I only have control over:
The patterns I identify as trading opportunities – do they meet a certain standard?
The orders I enter – is my order entry processes consistent with conducting trading as an organized business enterprise?
Leverage and sizing – (Risk Management) am I risking too much, but also, am I risking enough to make a trade matter if I am right?
Ongoing Trade Management – am I taking the right balance between protecting capital and allowing a trade to fully develop?
Gold is Pausing
/by Peter BrandtWhile I believe Gold has experienced a cyclic bottom, gold is pausing here. I have for several months openly expressed my opinion that the advance would be choppy at best. In recent Factor updates (premium service) I have highlighted the significant problem with the composition of open interest – the commercial interests with a record short position and the large specs (hedge funds and large traders) with a record long position. The Gold market gained way too many friends too early. I am not surprised by the lack of upside follow through in Gold. I might be interested in buying a retest of the falling wedge on the weekly graph in the 1170 to 1180 zone.
Long Term Euro Charts Point to Trouble Ahead
/by Peter BrandtFor a considerable period of time I have held a very negative opinion on the Euro. The Euro currency has a complicated history. The Maastricht Treaty of 1992 obligated certain Euro nations to adopt a common currency – although it was not until Jan 2002 that currencies such as the D-Mark were officially replaced by the Euro currency mechanism. It is possible to create a proxy EUR that dates back to 1992. In fact, IMM and proxy price data exist back to the early 1970s. Several technical developments on the EUR graphs are worthy of note.
Stock Market Updates
/by Peter BrandtIt is with some discomfort that I am always pointing out potential tops in the U.S. stock market indexes. But, I must call them as I read them. The S&P daily chart has made ZERO upward progress in 18 months. A possible complex H&S top formation is under construction. Also note the appearance of a 7-week H&S top pattern. I am willing to short this smaller H&S pattern if given a well-defined risk point. I will give up on a bearish interpretation of the S&Ps if a new high is made – but this does not mean I would have any interest in being long in new high territory.
Bullish on the US Dollar Index
/by Peter BrandtI remain a long-term bull on the U.S. Dollar. Like every other chartist in the world, I am well aware that the DX penetrated the important line of support at 93.00 this past week. I had absolutely no desire to short the apparent breakout of this level. In fact, I believe the decline below 92.00 was a gigantic bear trap – bringing in new shorts and washing out stalled longs.
Platinum Continues to Shine
/by Peter BrandtPlatinum
The dominant chart construction in Platinum is the completed 9-month H&S bottom on the weekly and daily graphs with an implied profit target of 1179. Note the near perfect Apr 25 retest of the neckline on the daily chart. The strength on Apr 28 goes a long way to confirm the H&S bottom interpretation.