The Public Blog site

Trading wisdom from 2,400 years ago

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If you are a trader, you will relate

When an archer is shooting for nothing . . . he has all his skill.
If he shoots for a brass buckle . . . he is already nervous.
If he shoots for a prize of gold . . . he goes blind;
or sees two targets . . . he is out of his mind!
His skill has not changed. But the prize . . . divides him. He cares.
He thinks more of winning than of shooting . . .
and the need to win drains him of power.
– Chuang Tzu, 400 B.C..
If you do not relate, then you are not likely a trader.

The U.S. stock indexes are NOT making H&S tops!!!

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Xmas tree H&S  

Note: The post herein was absolutely wrong on the analysis of the H&S top in stock indexes. Guess what -- traders are wrong from time to time. I make bold calls and some are right and some are wrong. At the end of the day, price is king and nothing else matters. Members of the Factor research service know that I over-rode the analysis herein on January 6, cautioning that the stock market had deep internal trouble.

Classical charting principles have rules. The Head and Shoulders is a classical chart configuration. The apparent and well-advertised H&S top in the U.S. stock indexes do not meet the rules.

Perma-bears, a H&S top is not sitting for you under the Xmas tree!

Sorry to all of you stock market doomsayers, but labeling the U.S. stock index charts as H&S tops just does not work. Volume is an important criteria upon which to judge the validity of the H&S patterns. Richard W. Schabacker (Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits), and later, John Magee and Robert Edwards (Technical Analysis of Stock Market Trends), are considered the pioneers in classical charting principles. According to the founders of classical charting, as a rule volume should be greatest in the left shoulder or head and lightest in the right shoulder in order to validate a H&S pattern. As the charts of the Dow Jones Composite, Dow Industrials and S&P 500 show below, the largest slug of volume has been in the right shoulder. This is NOT a sign of a valid H&S pattern, thus the interpretation of a H&S top in the U.S. stock index charts is not likely to be correct. 12.23_DJIA Read More

The Chart of the Month — MSCI World Index building a top??

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MSCI World Index forming a massive 2-year H&S top

The MSCI Index appears to be rolling over in a right shoulder of a significant top pattern. One must be blind not to notice the similarities between this potential top and the chart top completed in 2008. Also, notice how the right shoulder held at the 6+ year trendline. The completion of the H&S top would also violate the trendline. A completion of this top could lead to a decline toward 1400. MSCI   But I am NOT a doomsayer. In U.S. stocks I am NOT a bear and I am NOT a bull. In fact, I believe the S&Ps will remain in a range of 10% above the recent high to 10% below the recent low for the next five to eight years. 12.14_SPX Read More

A chart analysis of the Swiss Franc

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Charts indicate that the USD/CHF could trade at 1.1200 and perhaps as high as 1.2350.

Swiss National Bank is intent upon driving the Franc lower (i.e., USD/CHF higher)

 
Note: This report represents the type of analysis routinely provided to members of the Factor Service. Members of the Factor Service have been advised for three weeks to be long USD/CHF. For information on the Factor Service, click "Subscription" on the upper menu bar. The membership rate for new members to the Factor Service will be increased by $100 per year beginning January 1.
When analyzing the charts of a commodity, stock or foreign exchange pair, it is always best to start with a long-term view and work towards the shorter-term. The 100-year chart of USD/CHF shows that the USD is extremely cheap in historical relationship with the CHF, as shown below. Market observers who believe the USD/CHF cross is overheated do not have a clue. The clueless bunch were screaming "overbought" on USD/JPY back in Jan 2013 when the cross was under 90 to 1, on its way to 123 to 1. USD.CHF 100 years Read More

Live Cattle charts confirm a major top

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A major top has been confirmed on the Live Cattle price graphs, projecting significantly lower prices.

The weekly continuation graph completed a 14-month H&S top on Aug 21. The general target of this top is sub-120.
9.16_LE057_W
Read More

The bearish case in Silver is back on the table

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Seven month symmetrical triangle has been confirmed

Decline on August 25 triggerd an 8-week H&S failure

In recent weeks I have presented to members of the Factor Service the possibility that  why The Silver chart is a textbook example of the veracity of classical charting principles. Some of the features on the weekly graph include:
  • The blow-off top in April 2011 accompanied by record blow-of volume
  • The rising wedge retest of the top completed in September 2011
  • The continuation H&S pattern completed in April 2013
  • The descending triangle completed in September 2014
  • The symmetrical triangle completed in June 2015
8.26_SI_W Read More

A preview of the August 23 Factor Update — S&Ps

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Afraid to short S&Ps because it is oversold?????

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Chinese Yuan (USD/CNH) experiences historic breakout — next stop 6.8000

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History of Gold in Charts — Updated Version

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